NFL offseason power rankings: Will No. 14 Cincinnati Bengals waste another great Joe Burrow season?

The way the Cincinnati Bengals failed Joe Burrow last season was historic.

It’s nearly impossible to get an MVP-level season from a quarterback and miss the playoffs, as the Bengals did last season. There have been three quarterbacks to throw for 40 touchdowns and not make the playoffs: Dan Marino in 1986, Drew Brees in 2012 and Burrow last season. There are six instances of a quarterback passing for at least 4,500 yards with a 100 passer rating to miss the playoffs: Deshaun Watson in 2020, Matt Ryan in 2018, Philip Rivers in 2010, Brees in 2015 and 2016, and Burrow last season.

Burrow had the second-highest passer rating ever (minimum 500 attempts) to miss the playoffs, trailing only Watson’s 2020 season. Burrow’s rating was 108.5. He is the only quarterback to have 4,500 yards, 40 touchdowns, fewer than 10 interceptions and not make the playoffs. When Marino and Brees missed the playoffs with 40 TD passes, they had 23 and 19 interceptions respectively. Burrow had nine last season. Additionally, every quarterback listed above missed the playoffs before the NFL expanded to a 14-team postseason field.

Burrow finished fourth in the MVP voting. Among the 11 players who appeared on an MVP ballot, only Burrow and teammate Ja’Marr Chase (who finished ninth) weren’t in the postseason.

For those who like to cite a QB’s record like it’s an individual stat, try explaining how Burrow didn’t do enough for the 2024 Bengals. He was arguably the best quarterback in football last season, and Cincinnati went 9-8.

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A fiasco like that would usually cause a team to make wholesale changes. The Bengals responded by investing heavily in bringing the same group back. They paid big to keep receivers Tee Higgins and Chase, and that was the right plan. But there weren’t many other significant additions. A team that missed the playoffs despite a great season from its star quarterback decided, practically, to run it back. And if contract disputes with defensive linemen Trey Hendrickson and rookie Shemar Stewart aren’t worked out, it will be a worse group than the one that let down Burrow last season. The Bengals’ defensive DVOA was the sixth-worst in the NFL last season and the main culprit in those eight losses, and it wouldn’t be any better without last season’s league sack leader or this year’s first-round draft pick.

The Bengals’ biggest offseason move came when they fired defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and replaced him with Al Golden, who ran Notre Dame’s defense last season. Golden has been a coach for 32 seasons and only six of those were in the NFL, without a role higher than linebackers coach in the pros. Golden could work out tremendously as an NFL defensive coordinator, but it was the only move that should give Bengals fans hope that things will be totally different from last season. There is no guarantee Golden will be better than Anarumo, who got plenty of praise for Cincinnati’s defense when it made the Super Bowl at the end of the 2021 season and was hired quickly by the Colts as their new defensive coordinator after he was fired.

There was some bad luck in the Bengals missing the playoffs, like losing seven of their first eight one-score games, and fluky losses like dropping the opener to a bad Patriots team. But the Bengals have to take ownership of wasting a year of Burrow’s prime (as well as the primes of Chase, the NFL’s receiving triple crown winner, and Higgins). The bigger problem will be if it happens again this season.

Offseason grade

When you sign two receivers to deals worth a combined $276 million, as the Bengals did with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, there isn’t much money left over for anyone else. The Bengals made the right choice extending their star receivers, but it makes it tougher to build a championship roster. Defensive tackle Tedarrell Slaton, at $14.1 million over two seasons, was the only free agent the Bengals added at more than $2.5 million per year. They lost four players who got more than $4 million a year on the open market: guard Alex Cappa, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, and linebackers Akeem Davis-Gaither and Germaine Pratt. The draft was OK, with pass rusher Shemar Stewart in the first round and linebacker Demetrius Knight Jr. in the second. However, the contract standoff with Stewart as the Bengals try to insert new language in contracts allowing them to potentially void guarantees has dampened the excitement over adding a talented player at a position of need. How could anyone reasonably argue that Cincinnati’s roster is better than it was last season?

Grade: C

Quarterback report

Joe Burrow led the NFL in passing yards (4,918) and touchdown passes (43). He attempted the most passes in the NFL and completed 70.5% of them, leading the NFL in completions. His passer rating of 108.5 trailed only Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff. Burrow sent out the message that he wanted his star receivers re-signed, and they were. Burrow is 28 years old, well within his prime. Burrow is clearly on a Hall of Fame path, and there’s no reason he can’t repeat his success from last season. And he sounds ready to improve, taking unnecessary blame for the Bengals’ failure last season.

“If I had played even better, we wouldn’t have been in that spot that we were in,” Burrow said, via the team’s site. “I just focus on getting better myself, and I feel like everyone in the locker room feels the same way. If I go out there and play better than I did last year, then it doesn’t matter what goes on anywhere else.”

BetMGM odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are back, along with a healthy Joe Burrow. That’s good for Cincinnati. What’s bad is a defense that gave up the eighth-most yards (348.3) and seventh-most points per game (25.5) — and is still in a contract standoff with its best edge rusher in Trey Hendrickson. Cincinnati has a win total of 9.5 at BetMGM, is favored in 10 games and is a -150 favorite to make the postseason. Playing the NFC North and AFC East is tough, but the Bengals are helped with games against the Jaguars and Cardinals due to their third-place finish last season.”

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “

Stat to remember

Ja’Marr Chase will make $40.25 million per year on his contract extension, the highest for a receiver in NFL history, according to Spotrac. Tee Higgins makes $28.75 million per year, which ranks him ninth among receivers. That combined total of $69 million is by far the most for a receiver duo in NFL history, easily outdistancing the Eagles’ duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith at $57 million. It doesn’t mean paying a couple of star receivers, as well as a star quarterback, precludes a team from winning big. When Joe Burrow called upon the Bengals to pay Chase and Higgins, he referenced the Super Bowl champion Eagles.

“The Eagles are paying everybody,” Burrow said on the “Pardon My Take” podcast, via the Cincinnati Enquirer. “That seems like the way, whatever they’re doing.”

Burrow makes $55 million a season, tied for second-most among quarterbacks, which makes for a very expensive trio. It will be hard for the Bengals to build a championship team around them, though not impossible. The Eagles have done it paying their receivers, quarterback Jalen Hurts ($51 million), Saquon Barkley and other stars, but no team has drafted as well as Philadelphia. The Bengals decided to keep their passing game strong by re-signing all their stars, and we’ll see if they can build a passable defense around them.

Burning question

Can Al Golden fix Cincy’s defense?

Lou Anarumo seemingly lost whatever magic he had in 2021, when he was lauded for being the one defensive coordinator who could figure out Patrick Mahomes and helped Cincinnati reach a Super Bowl. Or, maybe the personnel he had to work with wasn’t as good. The Bengals’ defense is mostly the same as last season. There are two new projected starters and neither is a clear upgrade. Tedarrell Slaton replaces Sheldon Rankins at defensive tackle and rookie Demetrius Knight Jr. should take over at linebacker for Germaine Pratt, a productive veteran who was cut. There could be another new starter if Trey Hendrickson holds out into the season as he seeks a raise, or the Bengals trade him. Whoever would replace Hendrickson would be a big step back from a player who has posted 17.5 sacks each of the past two seasons. Without any new impact players, new coordinator Al Golden has to figure out what went wrong and fix it.

The scheme isn’t expected to be much different, with Golden relying on a 4-2 alignment with five defensive backs or 4-3 looks, like Anarumo employed. Golden said he wants the Bengals’ tackling to improve. Perhaps he can scheme up some turnovers; Notre Dame led FBS last season with 33 takeaways. Coaching will have to go a long way in any defensive improvement because the players are mostly the same.

Best-case scenario

Most teams that have a great quarterback playing at his peak make the playoffs and are usually Super Bowl contenders. The 2024 Bengals were a rare exception. That doesn’t mean the 2025 Bengals are doomed to repeat history. Had the Bengals gotten into the playoffs last season, they could have made noise. Their potential as a playoff sleeper was highly overstated — the same reasons they lost eight games were the same reasons they likely would have lost to one of the AFC’s best teams in the postseason — but facing that passing offense wouldn’t have been fun. If the Bengals have a better defense with a new coordinator, we know the offense will be very good. The passing game might be the best in the NFL and Chase Brown emerged last season as a very good running back with 1,350 yards from scrimmage. The defensive deficiencies make it hard to pick the Bengals to win the AFC North (though it’s not an impossible task), but Burrow is obviously capable of getting hot and leading his team to a Super Bowl. Having an elite quarterback usually raises a team’s ceiling.

Nightmare scenario

Having an elite quarterback also keeps a team’s floor pretty high. It’s impossible to see the Bengals losing double-digit games unless injuries hit hard. But who cares if the Bengals go 9-8 again? Joe Burrow’s prime won’t last forever. The Bengals have made the playoffs only twice in Burrow’s first five seasons (he was injured late in the 2020 and 2023 seasons). Is he going to be the modern day Archie Manning, a talented quarterback who is stuck in an underachieving organization? The Bengals watched their defense ruin last season and didn’t make any significant player additions to fix it. The Trey Hendrickson and Shemar Stewart contract disputes allowed everyone to bring up the Bengals’ old reputation of being a cheap franchise. The Bengals missed the playoffs last season and bring back mostly the same team, so it isn’t wild to believe Cincinnati could miss the playoffs again. While it’s far, far more common in the NBA to see a superstar ask out from a flailing franchise, is it possible that Burrow could reach that point? The Bengals might want to operate with urgency to avoid ever finding out.

The crystal ball says

Had the Bengals found their way into the playoffs, the conversation surrounding them would be a lot different right now. It’s not like they were far off. They lost a lot of close games and paid the price for it. It still feels like the Bengals will be one of the seven playoff teams in the AFC, though the defensive issues make it hard to put them on the same level as the Chiefs, Bills or Ravens. The Bengals should get a wild-card spot, and will be scary for any opponent due to Burrow’s brilliance, but ultimately fall well short of making it back to the Super Bowl. But if Cincinnati misses the playoffs again, there will need to be some serious self-reflection next offseason, and possibly some major changes.

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