At their core, the Green Bay Packers want to be a big, fast, young football team. This has been true for virtually my entire life (outside of Mike Sherman’s stint as general manager). Al Davis taught his approach to roster building to Ron Wolf, who took over the Packers in 1991, and passed those principles on to Ted Thompson and current Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst. It’s who they want to be, and who they have been for more than three decades now, without much change.
Don’t believe me? Take a look at the Packers’ pre-draft free agency additions during the Gutekunst-Matt LaFleur administration. All nine of their free agent signings who had an average per year (APY) worth at least four percent of the salary cap at the time of their signings (Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Aaron Banks, Xavier McKinney, Adrian Amos, Josh Jacobs, Nate Hobbs, Christian Kirksey and Billy Turner) were 28 years old or younger in their first year with Green Bay (based on Pro Football Reference’s data, which locks a player’s season age on September 1st of a given year).
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There are a lot of older free agents on the consensus top-100 board for this class. 47 of the 100 players are going to be 29 years old or older by September 1st. Based on Green Bay’s history, the Packers won’t be the highest bidders for their services.
With post-Covid cash spending being so much higher than the salary cap, free agency classes are becoming thinner and thinner in young talent. Teams have learned how to manipulate the cap, which has improved their ability to keep their homegrown players at a much higher rate. For example, the Dallas Cowboys can create $131 million in new cap space this year just via simple restructures, without ever having to release a single player on their roster. These cap manipulation methods were seldom used before Covid, when the cap stayed flat and then actually dipped, but every club uses them now. Previously, these were mechanics reserved only for teams going on a last push with aging quarterbacks, like the late-Tom Brady New England Patriots and the Drew Brees New Orleans Saints.
Because of this phenomenon, the biggest gains in the market have been average, not good, young players, because they’re the ones actually hitting free agency and absorbing the year-to-year cap space increases. How much is a four percent share of the salary cap in today’s league? It’s around $9.1 million, which sounds like a lot, until you realize even the average starting slot defender market has pushed up to $13 million, and that’s for a part-time player. Los Angeles Rams receiver Tutu Atwell signed a one-year, $10 million contract this offseason to return to the team that drafted him four years prior. Atwell made all of six receptions for 192 yards and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs for the team. You can absolutely make eight figures in a year in this league without even being a full-time starter at this point. That’s the reality when the cap is rising, and teams are borrowing cap space from the future.
All of those $25 million per year, per team gains on the salary cap (on top of the cash spending exceeding the cap) means it’s never been better to be an average starter in this league. In 2019, the Packers paid an APY of $7 million for Billy Turner to be an average-ish tackle. Now, it’s hard to find an actual starting-caliber tackle (even if he’s average or even below average) who is going to make south of $20 million per if he hits the market.
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In short, Green Bay doesn’t give out four percent of the cap contracts to older players in free agency. At the moment, basically all young starting-caliber players (outside of the specialists) get deals north of four percent of the cap because of the league’s spending habits and cap increases.
With that in mind, I wanted to break down what the top young-ish (under 29 years old) players look like at each position at the top of the free agency boards. I do not think that the Packers would be out of the running to add a 30-plus-year-old as a depth piece in free agency, but if they’re spending real money on a top-100 free agent, it’s probably going to be a young guy.
These rankings below come from our consensus free agency board, which now has data from 18 different rankings across the internet. If the Packers add a starter in free agency, it will likely come from this list.
Quarterbacks
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15: Malik Willis, QB (27 years old by September 1st)
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Running Backs
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13: Kenneth Walker III, RB (26)
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17: Travis Etienne Jr., RB (27)
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70: Rachaad White, RB (27)
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74: Tyler Allgeier, RB (26)
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83: Kenneth Gainwell, RB (27)
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87: J.K. Dobbins, RB (28)
Javonte Williams would have been a top-30 free agent in this class, per our consensus rankings, but the Cowboys just announced that he inked a three-year contract with the team on Saturday. This is your reminder that a good portion of these top free agents will be retained by their original teams, as they still have until March 11th to negotiate contract extensions prior to free agency.
Receivers
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1: George Pickens, WR (25)
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22: Rashid Shaheed, WR (28)
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29: Wan’Dale Robinson, WR (25)
Tight Ends
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36: Isaiah Likely, TE (26)
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81: Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE (27)
Offensive Tackles
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8: Rasheed Walker, T (26)
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71: Braxton Jones, T (27)
Guards
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40: Alijah Vera-Tucker, G (26)
Centers
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3: Tyler Linderbaum, C (26)
Interior Defensive Linemen
Edge Defenders
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4: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE (27)
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14: Odafe Oweh, EDGE (28)
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49: K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE (27)
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61: Kwity Paye, EDGE (28)
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88: Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE (27)
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90: Malcolm Koonce, EDGE (28)
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92: Joseph Ossai, EDGE (26)
Off-Ball Linebackers
Cornerbacks
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10: Jaylen Watson, CB (28)
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18: Tariq Woolen, CB (27)
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39: Nahshon Wright, CB (28)
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50: Alontae Taylor, CB (28)
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63: Montaric Brown, CB (27)
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85: Cor’Dale Flott, CB (25)
Safeties
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46: Jaquan Brisker, S (27)
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48: Jalen Thompson, S (28)
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68: Reed Blankenship, S (27)
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