The Cardinals can’t beat Seattle.
The Jets can’t beat Miami (which, for whatever reason, can’t win a Week 4 game).
Nobody can beat the Eagles, except Tampa Bay (at least recently).
And throughout this decade, the Bengals have been paying off like a broken cash machine when they take the field as a mid-size (or larger) underdog.
Advertisement
These are just a few of the NFL betting trend nuggets we dug up for the prime time and marquee matchups on the Week 4 docket.
Tail ’em, fade ’em or simply enjoy tracking ’em.
All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 43.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Seahawks -130/Cardinals +110
• As division rivalries go, this NFC West tussle hasn’t been very competitive of late. You have to go back to Week 11 of the 2021 campaign for the last time Arizona beat the Seahawks.
Since then, Seattle has ripped off seven straight wins — including five outright upsets — while going 6-1 against the spread. The only game decided by less than a touchdown: The Seahawks’ 21-20 win as a 3-point home favorite in the 2023 finale.
Advertisement
Dial things back to 2018, and Seattle has taken 11 of 14 meetings against the Cardinals — that includes a 5-2 mark when visiting State Farm Stadium.
• The last six Seahawks-Cardinals clashes in Arizona have stayed under the total. Five of those contests failed to clear 40 combined points, the lone exception being Seattle’s 28-21 victory in 2020 (closing total: 56.5).
Running counter to this particular NFL betting trend is the fact that the Cardinals have topped the total in four straight home games (including a 27-22 win over Carolina in Week 2), while the over has hit in four of the Seahawks’ last five road outings (including a 31-17 win at Pittsburgh in Week 2).
Advertisement
• Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray has cashed his rushing yards prop over in five of his last six games dating to last December, including all three this season.
Murray also has rushed for at least 27 yards in seven of 10 career games against Seattle. Two of the exceptions, though, were last season, when the Seahawks held the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner to 25 combined rushing yards on seven carries.
Murray’s rushing projection for Thursday Night Football (per BetMGM): 26.5 yards.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 43.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Eagles -190/Buccaneers +155
Advertisement
• With their stunning spread cover on the final play of last week’s game against the Rams — a 61-yard blocked field goal returned for a touchdown — the Eagles improved to 19-1 in their last 20 regular season and playoff contests.
During this incredible surge, Philadelphia has gone 14-6 ATS (70%), including 7-1 ATS in road/neutral-site games.
It’s worth mentioning, though, that the Eagles’ current hot streak began after their Week 5 bye last season … which was preceded by a 33-16 Week 4 loss at Tampa Bay as a 1-point road favorite. Including two postseason meetings in 2021 and 2023, Philly has lost six of seven to the Buccaneers (2-5 ATS).
[Check out all of Yahoo’s sports betting content here in our new betting hub]
• Since QB Baker Mayfield arrived in Tampa Bay in 2023, the Bucs are 23-14 ATS in the regular season (62.2%), but only 8-10 ATS at home (3-4 ATS as a home underdog).
Advertisement
Another noteworthy NFL betting trend: Tampa Bay (3-0) hasn’t started a season with four straight victories since 2005. Conversely, the Eagles did it in two of the last three years (2022 and 2023).
• Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts has an NFL-best 46 rushing touchdowns since Week 2 of the 2023 campaign. He’s also tacked on 10 rushing scores in the playoffs the past three years.
Over this stretch, Hurts has carried the pigskin into the end zone at least once in 30 of 42 games. That includes all three contests this season and both of his regular-season matchups against Tampa Bay.
Hurts’ odds of scoring at least one touchdown Sunday afternoon are as low as -124 at one national sportsbook.
Advertisement
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 48.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Ravens -150/Chiefs +125
• Including the 2023 AFC Championship Game, Baltimore and Kansas City have squared off seven times since Week 15 of 2015.
Although five of the meetings were competitive — decided by a touchdown or less — the Kansas City Chiefs own a 6-1 straight-up record. That includes taking all three battles at Arrowhead Stadium in 2018 (27-24 in overtime), 2019 (33-28) and 2024 (27-20).
While Kansas City is just 4-3 ATS against the Ravens since 2015, it was favored in five of those contests. In fact, prior to the Chiefs’ 7-point victory over Baltimore as a 3-point home favorite in last year’s opener, the underdog had covered the point spread in five consecutive head-to-head clashes.
Advertisement
• Riding the “Patrick Mahomes as an underdog” NFL betting trend didn’t work out two weeks ago, when the Chiefs fell 20-17 to Philadelphia as a 1.5-point home pup. Still, K.C. is 11-3-1 ATS when catching points in the Mahomes era (postseason included).
Mahomes has never failed to cover as an underdog twice in the same season.
• Ravens RB Derrick Henry has been limited to 23 and 50 rushing yards in his last two games. It’s the fourth time since arriving in Baltimore prior to last season that Henry has been held under 100 yards in back-to-back outings.
On the previous three occasions, Henry came back in the third game and rushed for 151, 140 and 162 yards. His yardage totals in seven career games versus the Chiefs (including two playoff battles): 46, 58, 69, 86, 115, 156 and 188.
Advertisement
Henry’s rushing projection for Sunday’s game: 78.5, per BetMGM.
• Barring a tie, one of these teams will go to sleep Sunday night with a 1-3 record. Here’s why that’s noteworthy:
Since John Harbaugh took over as the Ravens’ coach in 2008, the franchise has started 1-3 just once — the 2015 squad dropped its first three games before eking out an overtime win over the Steelers in Week 4.
Oddly enough, the 2015 Chiefs also dropped three of their first four games. That’s the only time Kansas City has started 1-3 since Andy Reid was hired prior to the 2013 season.
Green Bay Packers (-7, 47.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Advertisement
Moneyline: Packers -350/Cowboys +275
• The Packers suffered the biggest upset loss of the young season Sunday, falling 13-10 at Cleveland as a 7.5-point road favorite. Even with that stunning result, favorites of 4 points or more are a sizzling 18-3 SU this season (but only 11-10 ATS).
Clearly, oddsmakers believe the stumble versus the Browns was a one-off, as Green Bay was a consensus 7-point favorite for Sunday Night Football at Dallas as of midweek. That’s tied for the third biggest Week 4 point spread.
The Packers are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cowboys. That includes a 4-0 SU and ATS mark in Dallas, including a 48-32 upset in the 2023 wild card playoffs as a 7-point underdog.
Advertisement
• Following a dreadful 31-14 Week 3 loss at Chicago, the Cowboys are now 10-15 SU and 9-16 ATS in their last 25 games (including the playoff loss to Green Bay).
On the positive side of the NFL betting trends ledger, Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven when catching points (including three outright upsets).
Alas, “America’s Team” also is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2021 season. Five of the losses were by 7 or more points (although QB Dak Prescott missed three of those contests).
• The Cowboys scored a last-second 40-37 overtime win over the Giants in their home opener in Week 2. With that, the over improved to 18-6 in the last 24 games at AT&T Stadium, including the 2023 postseason clash against Green Bay.
Advertisement
Nearly two-thirds of those contests — 15 of 24 — topped 47 points.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 45)
Kickoff: Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Jets +125/Dolphins -150
• With their last-second loss at Tampa Bay in Week 3, the Jets have now started out 0-3 (or worse) four times in the last seven years. The last time New York had a four-game slide to kick off a season was in 2020, when it started 0-13.
One NFL betting trend Jets fans can cling to this week: Miami hasn’t won a Week 4 game since 2014, when it defeated the Raiders 38-14 as a 3.5-point underdog in London.
Since then, the Dolphins are 0-10 SU and ATS in Week 4, including 0-4 SU and ATS at home. In fact, going back to 2002, Miami is 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS in Week 4 games. (Note: The team had a Week 4 bye in 2003, 2005 and 2008.)
Advertisement
[Oddsmakers rank all 32 NFL starting QBs by point-spread value]
• Now some positive news for Phins fans: Miami has absolutely owned the Jets for the last decade.
Since the start of the 2016 campaign, the Dolphins are 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS versus their AFC East rivals. However, all four defeats were in South Beach, including a 32-20 loss in the 2024 season finale as a 2-point home underdog.
• Tua Tagovailoa has thrown an interception in each of Miami’s first three games this season (four total). It’s the only third time in his six-year career that Tagovailoa has been intercepted at least once in three consecutive contests.
Advertisement
Tagovailoa has never been picked off in four straight games. However, he has been thieved in three of the five meetings against the Jets that he started and finished (five INTs total).
Total INTs for New York’s defense through three games: zero.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 44)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Bengals +310/Broncos -400
• In Week 17 last season, Cincinnati upended the Broncos 30-24 in overtime, covering as a 3.5-point home favorite. Even with that result, the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in this rivalry since 1998, with seven outright wins.
Two of those upsets occurred in the Bengals’ last two visits to Denver (20-17 win in 2017 and 15-10 win in 2021). Prior to that, Cincinnati had been 2-13 all-time in the Mile High City.
Advertisement
• The Broncos, who tied for the second-best point spread record in 2024, are off to an 0-3 ATS start. It’s the first three-game point spread skid since the 2023 team started 0-5-1 ATS.
That being said, Denver has cashed in 10 of its last 15 home games (9-2 ATS as a favorite).
• Per Sports Odds History, the Bengals have been underdogs of 4 points or more 24 times during this decade (playoffs included). They’ve gone 10-13-1 SU but an astounding 19-5 ATS. That includes an 11-1 ATS mark since the 2021 campaign kicked off.
Also, regardless of the point spread, the over is 8-2 in Cincinnati’s last 10 games as an underdog (8-1 when playing on the road). What’s more, seven of the Bengals’ last eight as a road underdog cleared 50 combined points.
That includes last week’s 48-10 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point pup.
Read the full article here
