Week 6 is upon us and with it comes another series of difficult start/sit decisions in fantasy football. These are my favorite plays and my biggest fades for Sunday’s slate.
▶ Quarterback
Start: Jordan Love, Packers
The Packers are a frustratingly run-heavy team, logging one of the league’s lowest PROEs at -5%. On the other hand, they’re projected to score more points than any other team this week. Green Bay’s 29.25 implied team total is two points higher than the Bills, who are projected second in scoring. Though Love might not get to pass much if his team blows out the Bengals, he won’t have any issues doing so efficiently. Cincy ranks 24th in EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the sixth-most explosive passing plays this year. If the Packers get up enough to put Love on ice, it will be because he got them there.
Start: Matthew Stafford, Rams
Stafford is playing well right now and Sean McVay is doing his best to cook the books. Stafford is currently the QB14 in EPA per dropback and the QB6 in fantasy points. He’s out-producing his efficiency by way of volume. The Rams are top-five in PROE and are above zero for the first time since Stafford’s first season in LA.
Their pace of 26.1 seconds per play in neutral situations ranks third in the league. Now he gets a date with a banged-up Baltimore defense that is giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing passers.
Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
The Chargers were built in a lab to stop Mike McDaniel’s Mickey Mouse offense. LA has allowed the fourth-lowest YPA (5.2) and fifth-lowest touchdown rate (2.1 percent) on throws that happen within 2.5 seconds of the snap.
Tua — as you may have guessed — relies heavily on these plays. He has thrown seven of his ten touchdowns on quick attempts and 62 percent of his passes in total fall into this category. The books are also wary of Miami this week, making them 4.5-point underdogs with a team total below 20.
Sit: Caleb Williams, Bears
The Commanders aren’t an elite defense, but they match up quite well with Williams and the Bears specifically. Washington has generated pressure at the 11th-highest rate this year and they get home faster than almost any other team. Their 27 percent quick pressure rate (under 2.5 seconds) is the third-highest in the NFL. Williams has averaged 3.8 yards per attempt with a 37.3 PPF grade on quick pressure dropbacks. Those marks rank last and second-to-last among qualified passers. He is PFF’s No. 32 graded passer on pressures of any speed. He could still get home for fantasy purposes, but I’m expecting at least a few frustrating mistakes.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 6’s top plays at quarterback.
▶ Running Back
Start: Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Bill completed the takeover of the Washington backfield last week, at least to the degree that he is now the clear lead back. He set season-highs in:
- Snap rate – 50 percent
- Carry share – 61 percent
- Route rate – 38 percent
JCM leads the league in yards per carry (6.6) and rush yards over expected per carry (2.17). He gets a Bears defense on Sunday that is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Start: J.K. Dobbins, Broncos
Dobbins’ domination of the Denver backfield hit a new high in Week 5 when he saw 74 percent of the team’s attempts. He ran 20 times for 79 yards and a score. Dobbins has at least 68 yards from scrimmage in every game this year. He has scored in all but one game, in no small part because of his role in the red zone. He has 12 red zone carries to four for RJ Harvey. Dobbins also has a 4-1 lead in goal line attempts. As comfortable favorites over the Jets, Dobbins should continue to rumble against a defense that has conceded the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs.
Sit: Tony Pollard, Titans
With Tyjae Spears back in the lineup last week, Pollard’s snap share and carry share fell from 89 percent and 86 percent pre-Spears to 72 percent and 74 percent post-Spears. Those are still strong marks, but Pollard wasn’t getting home when he was seeing every touch the backfield had to offer. Spears’ role will only grow as he gets further removed from his ankle injury. That means a further decline in Pollard’s already limited fantasy output. As 4.5-point road underdogs, the Titans aren’t likely to establish much of a ground game in Week 6.
Sit: Chase Brown, Bengals
Brown is seeing plenty of work when measured by his cut of the Cincy backfield, but that pie has been shrinking by the week. In Jake Browning’s three starts, the Bengals have called 42 running plays for their running backs. That number trails only the Bears…who do not play last week. In turn, Brown has had a ceiling of 10 carries since Joe Burrow went down. Will things change for the team with Joe Flacco at the helm? Vegas doesn’t think so. The Bengals are 14-point underdogs to the Packers this week.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 6’s top plays at running back.
▶ Wide Receiver
Start: Matthew Golden, Packers
The Packers tried Golden in a new role before their Week 5 bye. He ran 75 percent of his routes from the slot in Week 4 and went on to set career-highs in targets (six), catches (five), and yards (58). He gets a Bengals defense on Sunday that has given up the third-most yards and the eighth-most receptions to slot receivers this year.
Start: George Pickens, Cowboys
The Panthers have used zone coverage on four of every five passing plays on defense this year. Only the Cowboys lean on zone coverage more. Pickens has eaten that look alive since joining the Dallas, averaging 2.41 YPRR against zone. He ranks 14th among all wide receivers in YPRR against zone. Pickens was a “Start” no matter what once it became clear Lamb would miss Week 6, but a great matchup makes him a smash in DFS contests as well.
Sit: DK Metcalf, Steelers
Few teams lean on man coverage these days, but Jim Schwartz’s Browns run man on 46 percent of their coverage snaps, the highest rate in the NFL. Metcalf has struggled mightily against man looks this year, averaging a minuscule .69 YPRR while being targeted on 11.1 percent of his routes. On the whole, his 23 percent target share is fine, but it’s far from alpha territory. In a bad matchup against Cleveland, he is more of a WR3 and far from a must-start.
Sit: Travis Hunter, Jaguars
Hunter looked good in Week 5. He played both ways and graded well as a corner and a wideout. He did not, however, work his way into even the WR4 ranks. Hunter is being targeted on 15 percent of his routes, a mark that ranks outside of the top 50 receivers (min. 50 routes) and makes him comparable to Dontayvion Wicks and Elic Ayomanor. He isn’t seeing a full complement of snaps either. He ranks 75th in route rate (69 percent), in line with Hunter Renfrow and Dont’e Thornton. The role and target-earning acumen are nowhere close to what we need them to be for fantasy purposes.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 6’s top plays at receiver.
▶ Tight End
Start: Darren Waller, Dolphins
Waller upped his route rate to 68 percent last week and earned a modest 15 percent target share. He supercharged his fantasy output with an aDOT of 14. Waller has run 74 percent of his routes from the slot or out wide through two games. He is purely a wide receiver that fantasy managers have the luxury of playing at the tight end position.
Start: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
Ferguson has played in three games without CeeDee Lamb this year. He has topped a 30 percent target share in two of them and has a 28 percent target share on the whole.
Ferguson is averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game with Lamb sidelined and the star wideout is expected to miss Week 6 versus Carolina. The Panthers give up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
Sit: Mark Andrew, Ravens
Andrews scored fewer than two points in two of three games with Isaiah Likely sidelined. He is still averaging fewer points since Likely returned to the lineup. Over the past two weeks — Likely’s first two games of the year — Andrews has run a route on just 61 percent of his team’s passing plays. That was all the way up at 74 percent when Likely was out. Andrews is now playing a part-time role and he will be catching passes from Cooper Rush on Sunday. I’ll take my chances with someone off the waiver wire.
Sit: Evan Engram, Broncos
Egram got home with his first touchdown of the year last week, but his role still looks like that of a low-end TE2. He missed Week 3 and has been active for the past two games. He ran a route on 57 percent of Bo Nix’s dropbacks over that span and has a target share of 15 percent. That’s the same number as Waller, but it’s coming at an aDOT of 4.4, over three times lower than Waller’s target depth. Engram has also seen a grand total of zero end zone targets since returning to the lineup. Both his ceiling and floor are pitifully low because of this role.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 6’s top plays at tight end, kicker, and defense.
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