Isaac Howard and Matt Savoie are generating buzz in Edmonton, and with good reason. The Oilers need them to contribute this season. But let’s be realistic about what “contribute” actually means for two 21-year-olds making the jump to full-time NHL duty.
The hype around both players is understandable. Howard won the Hobey Baker Award last season with 52 points in 37 games at Michigan State. Savoie had 54 points in 66 AHL games with Bakersfield and appeared in four games with Edmonton. Those are impressive numbers at their respective levels. But there’s a massive difference between dominating college hockey or the AHL and being a consistent contributor in the NHL.
Start with the reality: these are rookies or near-rookies on a team trying to win a Stanley Cup. The pressure’s real, the competition’s better, and the margin for error is thin. Expecting either one to come in and immediately produce like established NHL players is setting them up for unfair scrutiny when they hit inevitable rookie walls.
A reasonable expectation for both Howard and Savoie is somewhere in the 15-goal, 35-40 point range. That’s solid production for rookies playing bottom-six or middle-six minutes. If either one exceeds that, great. But penciling them in for 20 goals and 60 points because they dominated at lower levels is asking for disappointment.
Savoie developed into an effective penalty killer with Bakersfield, which matters more than people realize. The Oilers need depth that can contribute in all situations, not just guys who rack up points when playing with McDavid or Draisaitl. If Savoie can be a reliable penalty killer who chips in offensively, that’s valuable. That’s the kind of contribution that helps teams win games in April, even if it doesn’t make highlight reels in October.
Howard’s situation is trickier. He’s never played professional hockey before. The jump from college to the NHL is massive—longer season, better competition, faster pace, more physical play. Early observations suggest Howard looked “a little behind the play” in his first NHL game, which isn’t surprising for someone making that transition. That doesn’t mean he won’t figure it out, but it does mean patience is required.
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The concern with Howard isn’t talent—it’s readiness. College hockey doesn’t prepare you for an 82-game grind against NHL competition. There will be stretches where he looks overwhelmed. There will be games where he’s a healthy scratch. That’s normal for rookies, especially ones jumping straight from college. If Howard ends up spending time in the AHL getting professional seasoning, that’s not a failure. That’s smart development.
Savoie has the advantage of professional experience. He knows what the AHL grind feels like. He’s had a taste of the NHL. He’s already shown he can make “nice moves and nice plays” at the NHL level. The question is whether he can do it consistently over a full season while handling increased responsibilities.
The realistic expectation for both players is inconsistency. There will be games where they look like they belong. There will be games where they look overmatched. There will be stretches where the puck goes in, and stretches where nothing seems to work. That’s rookie hockey. The key is whether they can contribute enough during the good stretches to help the team while not hurting them too badly during the rough patches.
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Here’s what reasonable success looks like: Savoie plays 70+ games, kills penalties effectively, chips in 15-20 goals and 35-40 points while playing responsible defensive hockey. Howard plays 50-60 games between the NHL and AHL, shows flashes of his college scoring ability, and ends the season looking more comfortable than he did at the start. Both players finish the year having proven they belong in the organization’s plans moving forward.
What’s not reasonable is expecting either one to be impact players right away. The Oilers have Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and other veterans to carry the load. Howard and Savoie should be complementary pieces, not foundational ones. If they exceed expectations and become more than that, fantastic. But the baseline should be “solid depth contributors who show promise,” not “immediate top-six impact players.”
The other reality is roster competition. With Zach Hyman eventually returning from injury and the Oilers carrying experienced depth, there might not be consistent top-six minutes available for rookies. Both Howard and Savoie might find themselves playing 12-14 minutes a night on the third line rather than 18 minutes with prime offensive opportunities. That affects production expectations significantly.
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The temptation in Edmonton is always to rush prospects because the championship window is urgent. McDavid’s two-year extension creates pressure to win now. But forcing Howard and Savoie into roles they’re not ready for doesn’t help anyone. Better to bring them along properly, even if that means some growing pains and inconsistent ice time, than to ruin their development by expecting too much too soon.
Reasonable expectations: 15 goals, 35-40 points, reliable penalty killing from Savoie. Inconsistent but promising play from Howard with potential AHL time. Both players showing they belong in the organization’s future plans without being asked to carry significant responsibility on a championship-contending team.
That’s not exciting. That’s not what fans want to hear when they’re hyped about top prospects finally getting their shot. But it’s realistic. And if Howard and Savoie can meet those reasonable expectations while helping the Oilers win games in smaller ways, that’s a successful rookie season. Anything beyond that is a bonus.
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