This has been a fascinating NBA season in many aspects, but especially when it comes to the various awards races. Despite the regular season being almost complete, a handful of the biddings for these categories are coming down to the wire.
This year’s Sixth Man of the Year discussion is no exception. In most years, we usually have a pretty obvious candidate. However, this go around, injuries have forced some of the best bench guys to start too many games to qualify (i.e., Payton Pritchard).
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With this said, the race has narrowed to two main candidates: Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Keldon Johnson. According to popular sportsbooks like FanDuel, they are the only two players with realistic odds of taking home the crown.
But which of these two gentlemen is most deserving of the award? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
The Box Score
Raw counting stats favor Jaquez. This season, he boasts a higher PPG, APG, and stocks (steals and blocks) per game, and his RPG (5.1) are nearly identical to that of Johnson (5.4). However, Jaime also plays nearly five more minutes per contest than Johnson, so it isn’t necessarily fair to compare these two without adjusting for playing time.
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To do this, we will look at points per 75 possessions, rebounding rates (both offensive and defensive), assist rate, and stock rate. We also need to factor in efficiency. So, true shooting percentage is also included in the chart below:
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When you look at it this way, Johnson is the superior scorer and rebounder, and he’s managing this higher scoring output on better efficiency. However, Jaquez’s role within the Miami Heat offense asks him to do a lot more creating for himself (his unassisted field goal rate is 14.7% higher than Johnson’s) and his teammates.
Jaquez’s steal/block rate is also higher than Johnson’s, but only by a slight margin, and that may be explained by the fact that the Heat tend to be a more aggressive defense than the San Antonio Spurs in general (Miami’s opponent turnover rate is 1.3% higher).
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The Advanced Stats
As many of you know by now, the box score hardly ever tells the full story – even when you adjust for pace. A player’s numbers are only as good as their impact on winning, and history is littered with empty-calorie stat sheet stuffers (I’m looking at you Cam Thomas).
Dunks & Threes’ Estimated Plus-Minus is widely-viewed as the best publicly-available one-number metric because it incorporates tracking data. EPM gives Johnson the edge, as he ranks in the 73rd percentile leaguewide while Jaquez sits at just the 59th percentile.
But again, we need to add more context. One number metrics are limited to measuring how good a particular player is on their particular team. And as we’ve already established, Jaquez is generally asked to do more for the Heat than Johnson is for the Spurs, so he has more to live up to as far as impact metrics go.
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So, we also need to point out how each team fares when these two wings are on the floor. When it comes to pure on-court rating, Johnson laps Jaquez (see chart below), which makes sense because Johnson plays on the far superior team (the Spurs have 20 more wins than the Heat).
That is why we also need to include on/off data (how well a team does when you are on the floor compared to when you are on the bench) to this analysis. Based on this, the Heat are better with Jaquez on the floor, while the Spurs are actually better when Johnson is on the bench.
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Historical Precedent
History tells us that to win 6MOY of the year you absolutely need to be able to score the ball and you generally need to be on a good team. Since 2001-02, every player who has won the 6MOY award has averaged at least 13 PPG. In that same span of time, 19 of those 24 players (79.2%) played for teams that finished in the top four in their conference. The key exceptions to that last stipulation are Lou Williams (twice), Jason Terry (2008-09), Mike Miller (2005-06), and Antawn Jamison (2003-04), who all still played on teams that made the playoffs.
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Both of these guys clear the 13 PPG threshold (although, in Johnson’s case, just barely). But Johnson has a clear edge as far as team success goes. His Spurs are one of the favorites to take home the NBA title, and they currently sit at second in the loaded Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Heat will need some play-in magic (maybe even against Orlando) to qualify for the postseason.
So, while they both are deserving of the recognition, it seems that history favors Johnson.
The stats in this story were updated before Friday’s games.
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