NBA Predictions for Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year: Keldon Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker

The NBA’s postseason begins in two weeks and as the regular season wraps up, the awards market start to become one-way traffic. Two awards that are still up in the air are Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player. Let’s break down the best bet for both awards. Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

Most Improved Player: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (+100)

One of the most surprising rises of any player in this market is by far Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Not many people had him on their radar for this award, or any award for that matter, but after five consecutive seasons averaging under 10 points per game, Alexander-Walker has exploded for 20.4 points per game this season over a career-high 33.2 minutes.

When you look at his shooting splits, not many players are achieving what he is right now with 45/39/90 splits. The Atlanta Hawks are also one of the most surprising teams on the season, especially the second-half of the year. After trading away Trae Young, the door was open for multiple Hawks to expand their games in increased minutes and Alexander-Walker did just that.

The 27-year-old started 66 games which shatters his previous record of 21 in 2021-22 with the Pelicans and Jazz. After seven years and playing for his fourth team, it appears Alexander-Walker is in his prime it looks like he will be rewarded for that. It’s not all about offense or games played though, Alexander-Walker has been outstanding on the defensive end and facilitating too. Alexander-Walker doubled his steals from 0.6 to 1.3 this season, marking his first year totaling more than 1.0 steal per game, plus his 3.8 assists per game is a career-high and the first time going over 3.0 per game.

Alexander-Walker credits a lot of his success to Hawks’ coach Quinn Snyder who has allowed him to develop after Snyder saw the potential in Alexander-Walker after a short stint in Utah together. “He saw a ceiling higher for myself than I did,” Alexander-Walker told NBA.com. “And that was really cool for me because I felt like in my career I’ve never had that before.”

Alexander-Walker scored a career-high 41 points against Orlando earlier this month, scored 30 or more points five times, had two double-doubles, and posted three or more steals 9 times. He’s truly taken his game other level this season and despite his teammate Jalen Johnson being a favorite for this award most of the year, Alexander-Walker has forged his name in contention with only Jalen Duren having better odds to win the award (-115), but in my opinion, not for long. I played Alexander-Walker to win Most Improved Player at +100 and +105 odds.

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker to win Most Improved Player (2 units)

Sixth Man of the Year: Keldon Johnson (-200)

From 2020-21 to 2022-23, Keldon Johnson was starting every game for the Spurs, but in 2023-24, he started sliding to the bench, playing fewer minutes, scoring less points, and taking a minimal role with a team that was ready to improve drastically. That move has paid off for not just Johnson, but also the Spurs.

In four consecutive seasons, Johnson averaged 28 to 32 minutes per game, but this year, he’s recorded 23.2 minutes per game and flourished in that span. Johnson is averaging the best field goal percentage (53.2%) since his rookie season and the fewest shot attempts (9.5). Johnson is knocking down the three-ball at a 38.2% clip and posting the best free-throw percentage of his career (79.4%) to go along with 5.3 boards per game.

Just three seasons ago, Johnson averaged career-high 22.0 points per game before starting his transition to the bench. He averaged 12.7 points per game last year and brought that up slightly to 13.1 this season.

And Johnson hasn’t been shy about the potential of him winning the award. When Johnson was asked about being the favorite for Sixth Man of the Year on an Amazon Prime broadcast, he responded with, “Why not? How can you say I’m not the Sixth Man of the Year.”

It’s a hard argument against him, plus San Antonio does need rewarded for its terrific season. The Spurs will finish with the NBA’s second-best record behind the Thunder this season and currently have won nine-straight games and 25 of the last 27. Victor Wembanyama will finish second in MVP voting and win the Defensive Player of the Year, but that’s the only league notoriety this team will get, unless Johnson wins Sixth Man of the Year.

Even Wemby has made the case for Johnson to win the award. “He has sacrificed more than anybody on this team, in my opinion, in terms of stats and playing time,” Wembanyama said, “he’s the soul of this team, and he brings energy no matter what time of the day. I think he deserves to be the Sixth Man of the Year,” Wemby added.

The steam in the betting market has pushed Johnson all the way out to -200 odds and with Jaime Jaquez (Miami) and Reed Sheppard‘s (Houston) teams struggling over the last 10 games, this award has clearly become Johnson’s for the taking. I say get involved with Johnson to win the award as the league will want to reward the Spurs for an impressive season and Johnson has played his role to perfection.

Pick: Keldon Johnson to win Sixth Man of the Year (2 units)

NBA Futures Card

2 units: Keldon Johnson to win Sixth Man of the Year (-195)
2 units: Nickeil Alexander-Walker to win Most Improved Player (+105)
2 units: Jalen Johnson to win Most Improved Player (-130)
2 units: JB Bickerstaff to win Coach of the Year (+130)
2 units: Oklahoma City Thunder to win NBA Finals (+125)
2 units: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP (+125)
2 units: Luka Doncic to win MVP (+400)
1 unit: Boston Celtics to win the East (+400)
1 unit: Golden State Warriors to miss playoffs (+120)
1 unit: Los Angeles Clippers to make the playoffs (+130)
0.5 unit: Boston Celtics to win NBA Finals (+2000)
0.5 unit: Victor Wembanyama to win MVP (+1200)

Follow my plays for the season on X @VmoneySports, Instagram @VmoneySports_ and Action App @vaughndalzell.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!

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