NBA mock draft 2026: Lottery sim delivers 2 shocking winners, punishes tankers

The 2026 NBA Draft lottery was always going to have half the league sitting on pins and needles. This has been considered a stacked draft class for years as top prospects A.J. Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, and Darryn Peterson tore up the high school ranks. The group at the top looks even stronger now with breakouts from Caleb Wilson and Kingston Flemings, and the trade deadline made the stakes of the lottery even higher.

There are 10 teams trying to tank for better lottery odds to end this season. The Utah Jazz are resting their best players in the fourth quarter to try to lose games, the Washington Wizards won’t even play healthy players, and teams like the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks feel like they’re pivoting to a rebuild after years of doing their best to compete. The trade deadline put even more pressure on the lottery. The Los Angeles Clippers can now pick as high as No. 5 overall after trading Ivica Zubac to the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers will be praying their pick lands in the top-4 so they can keep it.

There’s big movement from our previous 2026 NBA mock draft, which featured a deeper dive into the individual prospects. Our last mock was more based off my personal board, but now that I’ve shared my board, let’s change the thought process for this mock and try to guess what NBA teams would actually do in each spot. I did one spin of the lottery order via Tankathon for this mock draft, and the results were shocking. Let’s dive in.

1. Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans) – A.J. Dybantsa, F, BYU

I have Cameron Boozer at No. 1 and Dybantsa at No. 3 on my big board, but the NBA likely won’t see it the same way. While I have concerns about Dybantsa’s defensive instincts and limited three-point volume, there’s no doubt he’s still a monster scoring prospect with a ridiculous blend of length, strength, explosion, and flexibility. He can put pressure on the rim at will as a driver, and he’s shown awesome touch in close by making 76 percent of his shots at the rim. Dybantsa also already has a polished back-to-the-basket game that should work well in high leverage situations, and he’s a capable floor spacer by hitting 37.2 percent of his threes, mostly on open catch-and-shoots. Dybantsa has some things to clean up like any young player, but he’s going to score like crazy with good efficiency in the NBA for a long time. He’s a cleaner fit next to Jalen Johnson than Boozer, and his body of work this season has been more impressive than Peterson, who has been slowed down by injuries.

2. Milwaukee Bucks – Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas

Milwaukee was the big winner of our lottery simulation, and this is a league-changing outcome. Suddenly, Giannis Antetokounmpo would have a bright future with the Bucks as they land a guard with All-NBA upside in Peterson. The Kansas freshman has underwhelmed expectations as he’s battled a hamstring strain and cramping issues, but he’s been putting up huge scoring numbers (43.5 points per 100 possessions on 62 percent true shooting). We still haven’t seen the best of Peterson yet with the Jayhawks, but his shot-making has already been phenomenal and his rim pressure and defensive playmaking should be a lot better when he’s 100 percent physically.

3. Brooklyn Nets – Cameron Boozer, F, Duke

The Nets really need to land a top-4 pick because they owe swap rights to the Houston Rockets in 2027. Boozer is the best prospect in this class in my eyes for his offensive versatility and long track record of impacting winning. Boozer is an awesome shooter, driver, and playmaker for his size at 6’9, 250 pounds. He’s not the most explosive or fluid athlete, but he makes up for it with strength, outstanding feel for the game, and a constantly increasing skill level. He’s been the most productive of the ‘big three’ prospects this year while also being the youngest, turning 19 years old shortly after draft day. It’s easy to take Boozer’s greatness for granted because he’s been so steady for so long, but he’s going to be a franchise cornerstone for whatever team selects him, regardless of draft slot.

4. Chicago Bulls – Caleb Wilson, F, North Carolina

The Bulls were the other big winner of our lottery simulation, moving up from the No. 10 slot to cash in on a 13.9 percent chance to land a top-4 pick. This is a great draft to land the No. 4 pick in with two of Wilson, Boozer, and Houston point guard Kingston Flemings likely available. Wilson could push Dybantsa out of the No. 3 spot on my personal board soon with his non-stop motor and two-way upside as a 6’10 forward. The Tar Heels freshman is a buzzsaw defender who can pick up 94-feet, provide secondary-rim protection, and get into the passing lanes. He doesn’t have a reliable three-point stroke yet, but he’s still an impactful offensive player by dunking everything as a finisher, gaining extra possessions on the glass, hitting tough mid-range shots, and adding value as a passer. Wilson feels more like a star role player than a traditional star, but he’d be a fantastic addition to Chicago’s rebuild and would finally give the fanbase some real hope.

5. Sacramento Kings – Kingston Flemings, G, Houston

It’s going to be particularly important to finish with the worst overall record for the tanking teams this year because it means you’re guaranteed a top-5 pick. While it’s a bummer for Sacramento to fall this far, at least they still land an awesome point guard prospect in Flemings who can replace a lot of what they lost by trading De’Aaron Fox. Flemings has a wicked combination of burst, change-of-direction, and the ability to stomp on the brakes as a driver. He’s a really good playmaker and mid-range shooter, and he should increase his free throw rate and three-point volume in time. He’s the rare lead guard prospect who should be a plus defensively. Getting a prospect of Flemings’ caliber at the No. 5 pick is one reason why this is such a strong draft.

6. Los Angeles Clippers (via Pacers) – Mikel Brown Jr., G, Louisville

The Pacers fell out of the top-4 in this lottery simulation, and that means their pick goes to the Clippers for the Ivica Zubac trade at the deadline. I tweeted that Brown was due for some positive regression to the mean as a shooter a couple weeks ago, and then he went out and made 10-of-16 threes in a win over NC State earlier this week. His combination of pull-up shooting, better-than-expected rim attacking, and solid playmaking with good positional size at 6’5 separates him from the other prospects in this range in my eyes, and if he stays on fire to end the year, maybe he can push Flemings for the No. 5 spot on my board. Yes, the Clippers just acquired a really good 26-year-old point guard in Darius Garland, but they can’t afford to draft for fit with a pick this high. Brown looks like the best prospect on the board by a sizable margin.

7. Washington Wizards – Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois

Wagler has been the biggest riser of the draft class, going from the No. 150 overall recruit to a possible top-10 pick. His off-the-dribble shooting is the most enticing part of the package, but he’s also shown an impressive ability to create off the bounce without an assist. Wagler has not dunked the ball this season, and is pretty clearly limited in terms of his athletic explosion, and it impacts him on the defensive end, too. At the same time, if he keeps shooting and scoring like this, it will be hard for the league to pass on him in the top-10. I’m fascinated to see if he can maintain his momentum through the end of the season for a stacked Illinois team talented enough to make a Final Four run.

8. Utah Jazz – Nate Ament, F, Tennessee

Ament is killing it lately after a slow start, averaging 25.4 points and seven rebounds over his last five games on 50 percent shooting from three and 45.2 percent shooting on twos. I’m still worried that he settles too much, and struggles to get to and finish at the rim. Adding more strength and refining his dribble, pass, and shoot skill set should improve that over time. The tools that made him a top-5 recruit entering the year are still there as a 6’10 wing, and I’d bet on it being too tempting to pass up for teams in this range.

9. Dallas Mavericks – Hannes Steinbach, F/C, Washington

Steinbach is an elite rebounder with a specialty on the offensive glass, he’s an efficient scorer, and he catches everything thrown at him. It feels like Steinbach has a wide range, but the added increase on hitting the offensive glass around the league should ultimately benefit him. He would be a nice lob target for Cooper Flagg as the rookie star continues to improve his pick-and-roll playmaking, and he’d also help get Flagg extra possessions with tip-outs and putbacks on the glass. His three-point shot is a work in progress and opinions on his defense are all over the map, but Steinbach has some special gifts as he continues to develop in other areas.

10. Memphis Grizzlies – Jayden Quaintance, C/F, Kentucky

It sure seems like Quaintance returned too early from his torn ACL suffered late last season at Arizona State. He didn’t look like the same player in his four games back before shutting it down, and that makes him in the top-10 a super risky bet. Still, I’ve been high on Quaintance’s future dating back to his high school days, and I don’t want to hold these four games against him after such a serious injury. When he was at Arizona State as a 17-year-old last year, Quaintance looked like an elite defensive big man prospect. The Grizzlies seem like the type of franchise that might take a chance on him despite already having Zach Edey entrenched at center.

11. Charlotte Hornets – Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan

Lendeborg will be 24 years old when his rookie year starts, but he should still have appeal in the lottery with both the tools and skill set to be a modern NBA forward. At 6’9, 235 pounds with a 7’4 wingspan, Lendeborg has shown he can defend all over the floor, crush the glass, and stroke three-pointers during his winding college career. His development track has been unusual because he didn’t start playing organized basketball until he was 15 years old, so his age shouldn’t be held against him too much. He feels like the perfect frontcourt connector to finish off Charlotte’s young core.

12. San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks) – Patrick Ngongba, C, Duke

I usually give the Spurs a shooter in this spot, and in the comments their fans always start complaining when they see “guard” next to their name. Fine! San Antonio gets one of my favorite prospects in Patrick Ngongba in this version, a 6’11 big man with immaculate finishing touch, slick passing ability, and proven paint protection instincts. Ngongba would have more appeal if he was a dominant rebounder, but I still think he’s worth a lottery pick.

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers) – Brayden Burries, G, Arizona

After a slow start, Burries has been looking like the five-star combo guard Arizona was promised on the recruiting trail, averaging 21.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and three assists on 64.3 eFG% over his last five games. Burries is really old for a freshman (he’ll be 21 in Sept.), but his ability to act as a secondary handler with three-level scoring ability will be intriguing after the top-10. He’s one of the biggest risers in this class since the start of the season, and he makes sense for an OKC team that could still use more long-term shooting and scoring punch.

14. Portland Trail Blazers – Braylon Mullins, G, UConn

Portland is No. 29 in three-point percentage this season, and Mullins can immediately help out in that area. The 6’6 UConn freshman might be the best off-ball shooter in the class with a quick and pure stroke from deep, and a decent enough combination of frame and athleticism to have some impact in other areas. I wish he could do more off the bounce, but at this point it feels like we haven’t seen the best version of him yet after an early season ankle injury and then a concussion. There’s still time with March Madness approaching.

15. Miami Heat – Koa Peat, F, Arizona

Peat can’t shoot from the outside at all, but he’s immediately been a winning role player on an elite veteran team from the moment he stepped on campus. His powerful frame, playmaking, and play-finishing is an enticing combo if his shot can develop enough to not completely kill a team’s spacing.

16. Golden State Warriors – Cameron Carr, G, Baylor

Carr’s 7’2 wingspan and 41 percent three-point stroke will earn him plenty of fans in NBA front offices. He’s painfully skinny right now and I’m not sold on his ability to attack off the dribble or his defense, but his production has been outstanding, and it’s very hard to find wing shooters with this type of length.

17. Memphis Grizzlies – Bennett Stirtz, G, Iowa

Stirtz is a pick-and-roll master who plays at his own pace. He can shoot it off the dribble, score with crafty finishes around the rim, and throw every pass in the halfcourt based on the coverage he’s seeing. His defense will be picked apart in the predraft process, but he checks a lot of boxes for a lead guard. He feels like a Grizzlies type of prospect to me.

18. Oklahoma City Thunder – Chris Cenac Jr., C/F, Houston

Cenac is a potential stretch five as a 6’10 big man with a 7’4 wingspan with soft touch from deep. He slides his feet well defensively on the perimeter, but still needs to work on his instincts and feel for the game on both ends of the floor. He’s been coming on strong in conference play, and the fact that he committed to play for a notoriously hard-charging coach in Kelvin Sampson seems like a good signal about his makeup to me.

19. Charlotte Hornets (via Suns) – Darius Acuff, G, Arkansas

Acuff has been one of the most productive guards in college basketball this year as he’s continued to put up huge numbers against top competition. I’m a bit worried about his defensive projection and shot selection, but his production this year would be hard to ignore if he slips this far. Would the Hornets still take another guard after trading for Coby White (an impending free agent, to be fair) at the deadline? I think so, given White’s ability to play off the ball.

20. Toronto Raptors – Aday Mara, C, Michigan

The Raptors desperately need a center of the future with Jakob Poeltl being slowed down by a back injury. Mara is a good bet in this range as a 7’3 center who can contest shots in drop coverage and throw some amazing outlet passes to kickstart the break.

21. Detroit Pistons (via Wolves) – Tyler Tanner, G, Vanderbilt

The Pistons got this pick with a sneaky-good trade deadline deal that earned them swap rights with the Wolves. Detroit could go in a lot of different directions here, but I like the idea of adding a lightning-quick point guard in Tanner who has been one of the country’s best players in his sophomore season. Tanner is extremely small (he’s generously listed at 6-foot, 175 pounds by Vandy), but he’s super athletic, much improved as a shooter, and plays way more physical than someone his size should. The Pistons have the defensive personnel to help insulate him, and he could do a lot to help unclog their offense.

22. Los Angeles Lakers – Morez Johnson, F, Michigan

Johnson can protect the paint defensively, score efficiently inside, and is just starting to flesh out his three-point stroke. He would add some much needed physicality to the Lakers front court, and he has the length and strength to make up for being a tad short at 6’9.

23. Atlanta Hawks (via Cavs) – Thomas Haugh, F, Florida

Haugh should be a winning role player in the league with his combination of defense, floor spacing, and above-the-rim finishing. Don’t want to take my word for it? Here’s what Dan Hurley said:

24. Denver Nuggets – Dailyn Swain, F, Texas

Swain is one of the top sleepers in this class. The Texas junior has a great frame and impressive athleticism for a wing, and he should be able to defend and rebound in the league from day one. He’s shown way more comfort attacking off the dribble this year, and his three-point shot gets a tad better every season even if it remains a weakness. He’s going to be a steal for whoever drafts him, and he’d be a great fit in Denver.

25. New York Knicks – Labaron Philon, G, Alabama

There’s so many good guards in this draft class that a couple of them with a chance to go in the lottery are bound to fall a little further than they should. I love Philon’s drive-and-kick ability, deadly floater, and improved outside shooting, but he’s just really small for an NBA guard without Tanner’s defensive production. He would love playing like OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges behind him … if those guys are still on the Knicks next season.

26. Philadelphia 76ers – Karim Lopez, F, New Zealand Breakers

The Sixers acquired this pick from the Pelicans in the Jared McCain trade, which mostly felt like a cost-cutting move for Philly, so they better make this selection count. Philly has been searching for a modern four for years, and it feels like Lopez fits the bill. He has a great frame as a strong 6’9 forward who can attack downhill, finish at the rim, and get to the foul line. He may go 10 spots higher than this.

27. Boston Celtics – Tounde Yessoufou, G, Baylor

Yessoufou was a five-star freshman who projects as a point-of-attack defender at the next level. His offense hasn’t always been pretty during his freshman year, but he’s coming on strong lately. It feels like he has to be a really good shooter to make it work in the NBA given his lack of handling and playmaking. I’m not sold on the shot yet, but he could get an acceptable level eventually given his defensive abilities.

28. Cleveland Cavaliers – Joshua Jefferson, F, Iowa State

Jefferson is one of the best players in college basketball, and he’s shown he has role player potential even as a star during his senior season at Iowa State. He has a good frame for an NBA forward, and his passing, rebounding, and defense should all play at the next level.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves – Alijah Arenas, G, USC

Arenas is getting a late start to his freshman season after being involved in a terrifying car accident, but he’s really starting to play well as he gets his feet wet as a freshman at USC. The son of Gilbert Arenas just seems to get anywhere he wants off the dribble with impressive size and shot-making for a guard. He could be a lottery pick in 2027 if he returns to school and shines for a full season, but there’s still a chance he comes out this year.

30. Dallas Mavericks – Meleek Thomas, G, Arkansas

Thomas is a walking bucket with speed, shiftiness, and impressive shooting off the dribble or on spot-ups. He feels primed to be a really good bench scorer for a long time, and that’s a great value with the last pick in the first round, which the Mavericks acquired from the Wizards in the Anthony Davis trade.

Read the full article here