NASCAR odds, picks, predictions and DFS lineup advice for Kansas. Who's the best bet?

Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson ran 1-2 last week at Dover and enter this weekend in the top two slots of the odds board as NASCAR goes to the Jayhawk State.

Turns out, they’re also the two best at Kansas over the past three years and six trips to that other Kansas City.

But simply betting on winners is for losers, especially when there are so many other options out there. Let’s look at some of the options and put together a plan before putting the thumb to the “place bet” button there on the Hard Rock app.

DRIVER POWER RANKINGS NASCAR weekly Top 10: Did Denny Hamlin leapfrog William Byron? Is Kyle Busch back in town?

NASCAR odds for Kansas this weekend

+350: Kyle Larson
+375: Denny Hamlin
+575: Tyler Reddick
+650: William Byron
+700: Martin Truex Jr.
+850: Christopher Bell
+900: Chase Elliott
+1300: Bubba Wallace
+1400: Ty Gibbs
+1600: Ryan Blaney
+1750: Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman
+3000: Joey Logano
+4000: Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski
+6000: Noah Gragson
+7500: Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe
+10000: Michael McDowell
+15000: Josh Berry, Carson Hocevar
+20000: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Cindric
+25000: Jimmie Johnson, Austin Dillon, John Hunter Nemechek, Ryan Preece
+50000: Zane Smith, Corey LaJoie, Daniel Hemric, Harrison Burton, Austin Hill
+100000: Riley Herbst, Derek Kraus, Todd Gilliland, Justin Haley

NASCAR best bet

Ryan: I just want to point out somehow Todd Gilliland opened at 1,000 to 1. That’s bet $100, win $100,000. Seems steep for a guy who’s flashed some serious speed this year at times. But, alas, I’ll head over to the winning manufacturer tab where Toyota is somehow +100 to win despite claiming the last four events in the heartland and seven of the last nine. It’s not a huge payoff, but it’s a double up and about as safe a bet as you’ll ever have with one.

Ken: The 23XI team is listed third on the board (+500) for a team win, behind only Gibbs (+175) and Hendrick (+180). The two favorites have four cars each, but 23XI’s two-car team is piloted by Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace. Bubba has a win and two top-5s in his last six Kansas starts, while Tyler has two wins and 10 top-5s in his last three-plus seasons on intermediate tracks. And best of all, 23XI has won three of the last four Kansas races, all in the Next Gen car.

Top 10

Ryan: OK, really, Gilliland is +2500 for a top 10? But here’s a better value: John Hunter Nemechek is driving a Toyota and in his Xfinity career, he has two wins, three top 10s and an average finish of 3.3 in three starts. Plus, a $10 bet would bring back $120 at 12 to 1. And he drives a Toyota. Sign me up.

Ken: When your losses form a thick enough callus, a losing wager will simply bounce off without notice. In other words, I ain’t scared, but color me enticed. Austin Dillon is often decent at Kansas, and decent is all we need here. And it’s at +900 for a simple top 10.

Top 5

Ryan: Seemingly any Toyota is a good bet here and somehow, Martin Truex Jr. is at +125. Jump on it. Now.

Ken: Baby steps, you know? Last week, Ty Gibbs took a bite out of his recent mini-slump with a 10th at Dover. Next step is a top five in the heartland, at +190.

NASCAR Kansas predictions: Who ya got for the win?

Ryan: Back-to-back DNFs has Bubba Wallace coming in needing a good finish at a track in which he owns a win and has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four races. Oh, and he’s 13 to 1. I’ve heard enough.

Ken: There’s a guy out there who has become a familiar face in Victory Lane. It’s a guy who tends to space out his wins a tad. One of the guy’s wins this year came after finishing 35th the week before. Last week, this guy finished 33rd. Yep, Billy the Kid is my guy. Gimme William Byron at +650.

NASCAR DFS lineup

No we couldn’t quite fill an entire lineup with six Toyotas, but we did our best.

Remember, DraftKings daily fantasy lineup points are accrued by things like fastest laps, laps led and positions gained. Each entry is granted a $50,000 budget to afford six drivers.

Here’s our best crack at a six-driver lineup:

John Hunter Nemechek ($6,000): See his track record and manufacturer above. Major value here.
Daniel Suarez ($7,200): You’ve got to try and find value in these lineups and while Suarez’s Kansas numbers won’t wow you, he has five top 20s in his last six starts there and another would be about as good as you’re going to do in this price range.
Noah Gragson ($7,400): Our guy comes in hot, riding back-to-back, top-10 finishes and he has a Kansas Xfinity Series win to his credit.
Ross Chastain ($9,100): No, Ross isn’t driving a Toyota, but he has six straight top-15 finishes at Kansas and has scored stage points in eight of the last 10 stages there. His average finish of 9.8 is fifth best over the last six events at Kansas.
Bubba Wallace ($9,500): The other car in the 23XI Racing stable and he also has a win here. Like Reddick, this one was easy.
Tyler Reddick ($10,700): Won here last fall and his No. 45 has won three of the last four at Kansas with Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace visiting Victory Lane in 2022. This one’s easy.