Denny Hamlin is widely considered the best driver in NASCAR Cup Series history to never win a title, but he can finally capture his first Bill France Cup on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship race.
Hamlin is the betting favorite in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds prior to qualifying, with fellow Championship 4 drivers Kyle Larson and William Byron close behind. Chase Briscoe, the final member of the Championship 4, is just behind Ryan Blaney in the wagering for this race.
Keep in mind when making your NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions that the best overall finisher among the Championship 4 will win the title, but that any of the 38 listed drivers can win this individual event regardless of their playoff standing, like Ross Chastain did in 2023.
Without further ado, here are our free betting picks for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship on November 2.
Odds to win 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
Odds as of 11-1.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship field
A field of 38 will take the green flag just after 3:00 p.m. ET at Phoenix Raceway for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship this Sunday. No. 44 JJ Yeley and No. 66 Casey Mears are the two part-time drivers joining the standard cast of 36 characters.
All of the Championship 4 drivers carry odds of less than +1000, along with Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11-1.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship pre-qualifying favorites
Denny Hamlin (+400)
Is this the year Denny Hamlin does it?
The driver who won the Round of 8 opener won the championship in three of the last four years (2021, 2022, 2024), and Hamlin won the third-round opener at Vegas a few weeks ago.
The Joe Gibbs Racing pilot has 13 Top-10 finishes in his last 19 starts in the desert. But two wins in 40 Phoenix starts makes me leery. Hamlin did win at Gateway, Dover, and Martinsville, similar tracks to Phoenix, in 2025.
Kyle Larson (+500)
Phoenix didn’t used to be one of Kyle Larson’s better tracks. Now, it’s become one.
Larson has seven Top-5 finishes in his last 11 starts here. The thing is, while having 11 Top-10 finishes in his last 13 Phoenix tries, Larson also has just one career win in 22 Phoenix starts.
On short tracks this season, Larson has finished third at Phoenix, first and 32nd at Bristol, fifth twice at Martinsville, fourth at Dover, 28th at Iowa, and sixth at Richmond. He was 12th in Gateway and seventh at Loudon, two other similar tracks.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship sleepers
Ross Chastain (+2000)
Ross Chastain won the 2023 championship race after leading 157 laps and finishing third and second, respectively, in the pair of stages. He had stage points in both stages in the 2023 spring race, but had a late race run-in with Denny Hamlin that relegated him to a 24th-place result.
He finished sixth and 11th the last two springs, and 19th last fall. However, he qualified third for the fall race, so he had speed.
Josh Berry (+2500)
The Penske Fords have been rapid in the Arizona desert, and Josh Berry could certainly capitalize on the Wood Brothers’ alliance with Team Penske. Berry finished fourth here this spring, was runner-up in Loudon, and ran 10th last week in Martinsville.
Chris Buescher (+3000)
Fords have been quick in Phoenix, and Chris Buescher won the second stage in the 2023 Fall race and finished fifth. He was runner-up and fifth the last two springs, and ninth and 18th at Gateway and Loudon, respectively.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship fades
William Byron (+600)
Since Martinsville and Phoenix became the Round of 8 finale and Championship 4 tandem in 2020, only one driver has swept them both (Chase Elliott, 2020). That’s not good news for last weeks winner, William Byron.
It’s also worth noting that the last driver to win both the Daytona 500 and the championship in the same season was Jimmie Johnson in 2013. Hendrick Motorsports is responsible for the only three such occurrences since 1980: Jeff Gordon (1997), Johnson (2006), and Johnson again in 2013.
Byron won the 2023 spring race at Phoenix, leading 64 laps and earning stage finishes of first and second. That fall, he started on the pole and led 95 of 312 laps, ultimately finishing fourth.
In last spring’s race, he qualified fifth, finished sixth and fourth in the stages, but slipped to 18th at the finish. In the fall, he qualified eighth, finished fourth in both stages, and came home third.
This spring, Byron once again started on the pole, led 83 laps, won Stage 1, finished third in Stage 2, and placed sixth overall. Byron now has eight top-10 finishes in his last 11 Phoenix starts.
Chase Briscoe (+700)
Chase Briscoe won the 2022 spring race after leading 101 laps. That fall, he led 11 more laps and earned stage finishes of third and fourth, ultimately finishing fourth overall.
However, in two of the last three spring races, he placed seventh and ninth, before a 35th-place result this past spring. Even more worrisome are his 24th- and 29th-place finishes in the last two November races.
There’s another concerning trend, too. The winner of the second race in the Round of 8 has finished last among the Championship 4 drivers in the title race the past two years. In the Playoff Era (2004-present), only one driver has won the Talladega Playoff race and gone on to win the championship in the same season (Ryan Blaney, 2023).
Christopher Bell (+850)
Christopher Bell has won two of the last three Phoenix races, but both were in the March event. He was sixth and fifth, respectively, the last two November races.
While he has seven Top-10 finishes in his last nine Phoenix starts and eight Top-8 finishes in a row on the season, an outright Phoenix win when his teammates Briscoe and Hamlin are going for a championship puts him in a position of help rather than aggressor.
Joey Logano (+1000)
Joey Logano has been feast-or-famine at this track. He had 612 laps led and seven Top-10 finishes in an eight-race span at Phoenix coming into the 2023 season that included a pair of wins (spring 2020, fall 2022) and a runner-up (spring 2021).
However, Logano failed to lead a lap in 2023, or score any stage points, and finished 11th and 18th, respectively.
Last spring, he qualified 23rd and finished 34th without a lap led, too. He then went out and led 107 laps from the second starting position and won the race and the 2024 championship last November.
Chase Elliott (+1200)
Chase Elliott won the 2020 race en route to his only championship. A year later, he finished fifth in both Phoenix races.
However, he’s since finished 11th, 28th, 16th, 19th, eighth, and 10th, respectively. It’s easy to see him stepping aside to help teammates Larson and Byron.
Tyler Reddick (+1600)
Tyler Reddick has only had two Top-5 finishes in 10 Phoenix tries with just four total laps led. On short tracks this season, he has finished 20th (Phoenix), 18th and 15th (Bristol), 14th and 11th (Martinsville), 12th (Dover), 19th (Iowa), and 34th (Richmond). He was 16th and 21st, respectively, at Gateway and Loudon, too.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship prop pick: Ryan Blaney Top-3 finish
One of these years, Ryan Blaney (+700 win outright) is going to find victory lane in Phoenix.
While he’s 0-for-19 in the NASCAR Cup Series on this track, he does have 12 Top-10 finishes in those 19 starts, including nine of his last 10. While he was 28th this spring, he still finished fifth and fourth in the pair of stages before an engine expired on Lap 289.
Blaney finished fourth at Iowa, third at Richmond, fourth in the Bristol night race and Gateway, and won in Loudon, all similar tracks to Phoenix. He was also runner-up last week in Martinsville.
A non-Championship 4 driver has finished in the Top 3 in seven of the 11 years, including two of the last three.
Pick: Ryan Blaney Top-3 finish (+210 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Phoenix Raceway track analysis
Nothing has changed in regard to this track layout in comparison to the last time out.
The Ford drivers led 89% of laps (558-for-624) in 2022, including 248 of the 312 in the spring race and 310 of the 312 in the fall. Hendrick Motorsports led 65 of the remaining 66 laps between the two races, with the only other driver to lead a lap in Phoenix last year being AJ Allmendinger (one lap, fall race).
For 2023, Chevrolet flipped the script.
It led 532 of the 629 combined laps in 2023 (84.5%), taking two of the Top 4 finishing positions in the spring race. Ford led 82 of the remaining 97 laps, with Toyota taking the other 15, all in the fall race.
In 2024, Toyota drivers led 298 of the 312 spring race laps. Ford led the remaining 14. Among the 298 laps, JGR led all but 68, with Reddick from 23XI Racing leading the rest. In the championship race, Toyota drivers led 152 of 312 laps, Ford drivers led 120 laps, and Chevrolet the other 40 laps. Among the 624 laps at Phoenix last year, 450 (72.1%) were led by Toyota, with 166 for Ford and 40 for Chevy.
This spring, it was more even. Toyota finished 1-2 and led 108 combined laps, but 105 of those were from Bell. Chevrolet led 83 laps, all by pole-sitter Byron, who finished sixth. The bowties also had four of the Top 8 finishers.
Ford had only three cars finish in the Top 12 but led 121 laps.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship trends
- Starting position matters at Phoenix. Thirteen of the last 16 Phoenix winners have come from a Top-10 starting spot.
- Eleven of the last 13 Phoenix races saw the eventual race winner get a Top 5 in the opening stage. Furthermore, 12 of the last 13 race winners had a Top-3 in Stage 2.
- There have been eight different winners at Phoenix in the last 10 tries: Elliott, Truex Jr., Larson, Bowman, Logano (twice), Byron, Chastain, and Bell (twice).
NASCAR Cup Series Championship info
| Location: | Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, November 2, 2025 |
| Start time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Previous NASCAR Cup Series Championship race winners
Ross Chastain is the only non-Championship 4 driver to win the Cup Series Championship race in this current playoff format. Ryan Blaney was crowned Cup Series champion in 2023, part of a streak of three straight titles for Team Penske that will be snapped on Sunday.
| Year | Winner |
| 2024 | Joey Logano |
| 2023 | Ross Chastain |
| 2022 | Joey Logano |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott |
How to make NASCAR Cup Series Championship picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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