MLB trade deadline: Which teams should sell, and which should stay in the postseason race?

It’s getting to be that time of year when we look around the league to see who might or might not be making moves at this year’s trade deadline. And while some of the league’s best teams have started to separate from the rest of the pack, there are several teams stuck in the middle, and between now and July 31, these organizations will have to make some tough decisions about who and what they are.

Should they sell, or should they stay in the hunt for the 2025 postseason? Here are a few teams that have some thinking to do as we approach the trade deadline.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have been one of the bigger surprises in baseball this season. They’re currently second in the NL Central, and they’ve been over .500 for the majority of the season. After years of a veteran-first approach with the roster, St. Louis has relied on youth this year, and that has served them well. Led by second baseman Brendon Donovan, their lineup ranks third in MLB in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage and tied for eighth in runs scored.

With the promising start to 2025, fourth-year manager Oli Marmol might have saved his job after the Cardinals suffered back-to-back disappointing seasons in 2023 and ‘24. This time around, with a roster that no one thought would be able to compete, they’ve continued to play well and are 21-18 against teams with winning records.

So what do the Cardinals do at the trade deadline? It’s tough for any team in second place to wave the white flag, but St. Louis is in an interesting position. This is the final season with longtime executive John Mozeliak as the team’s president of baseball operations before Chaim Bloom takes over. Would it be better for the Cardinals to go for it in Mozeliak’s last hurrah? Or do they make the difficult but likely smart decision to sell at the deadline, giving Bloom prospect capital and a young foundation to build on in 2026?

The Cardinals will likely wait until the week of the trade deadline to pick their lane. But this month will be crucial in determining that direction, as St. Louis has a big series later this week against the Brewers, who are right behind them in third, and a series later this month against the division-leading Cubs.

Verdict: Sell

The Rangers, Royals, Blue Jays, Braves and Cardinals are among the teams stuck in baseball’s messy middle this season.

(Mallory Bielecki/Yahoo Sports)

Atlanta Braves

The Braves do not appear to be who we thought they were at the beginning of the year. Atlanta came into the season with high hopes, with the returns of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider on the horizon and the belief that they could be the team to get the best of the Dodgers. But since an 0-7 start, the Braves have been unable to get themselves going, even after the returns of Acuña and Strider. Their starting pitching is fine, ranking 13th in ERA, but the team’s offense hasn’t resembled the juggernaut it once was, currently ranking 20th in runs scored.

What do you do if you’re Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta brass?

While the Braves haven’t looked like a team that can make a run to the postseason, this roster is still star-studded and in the middle of its contention window. At the same time, adding to a team that is just 3.5 games ahead of the Miami Marlins seems a bit ridiculous.

Would another team in need of frontline starting pitching make a run at Chris Sale? In a seller’s market, in which starting pitching is the hottest commodity, Sale might be the best starter available, especially with Sandy Alcántara struggling mightily this season. Sale is also 36 years old, so there’s no guarantee how many good seasons he has left.

Moving Sale doesn’t seem like something Atlanta’s front office will be interested in. But the reality is that the Braves need to do something at the deadline, and it probably shouldn’t be adding.

Verdict: Sell

Toronto Blue Jays

The story for the Blue Jays as we approach the deadline could’ve been much different, considering where the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. saga stood as we rolled into the season. But with Vlad Jr. signed to a record 14-year, $500 million extension, it seemed that Toronto reset their window with the hope of better days ahead. And that’s exactly what has happened. Toronto has been one of the better teams in the American League this season, currently tied for second in the AL East.

That said, there’s no one thing that Toronto does particularly well, but while their stars haven’t played at an All-Star level, the trio of Vlad, Bo Bichette and George Springer have shown up at various points throughout the first half. As for the pitching, the Blue Jays still haven’t gotten to see what they look like with Max Scherzer in the rotation, as he has been battling a variety of injuries.

The Blue Jays are one of the teams that have benefited from this being a down year in the American League. They managed to stay afloat while they got going, and they’ve now gone 8-2 in their past 10 games and moved into a wild-card spot.

For all those reasons and the fact that at some point, they have to get more from Anthony Santander, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t try to address one or two of their needs at the deadline. This might not be the year for Toronto to make a blockbuster deal, but a move that gives them a chance to win the wild-card round and reach the ALDS would be well worth it.

Verdict: Buy

Kansas City Royals

Teams that have starting pitching tend to have an advantage at the trade deadline because they aren’t trying to acquire the commodity that is always the most expensive. For the Royals, they’ve built their team around their rotation, and that rotation has proven once again to be one of the best in the game. While their starters’ performance has dipped over the past three weeks compared to the first eight weeks of the season, the Royals still rank fourth in MLB in starter ERA, with breakout star Kris Bubic leading the way with his 1.43 mark.

Even so, the question that always comes up with Kansas City is can they hit enough to take advantage of their starting pitching? For much of this season, the answer has been no. The Royals rank 27th in baseball in runs scored, 30th in home runs and 24th in OPS. Despite having superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., they’ve needed more offensive punch, which led the team to promote one of the game’s top prospects, Jac Caglianone, last week.

Wasting a great season from an elite rotation like the one the Royals have would be a shame, especially when their model was proven successful with their postseason appearance last year. This time around, the key to a return trip to the playoffs will be getting to at least the middle of the pack offensively.

There are likely going to be players available at the deadline whom the Royals could acquire to improve on the margins. If they’re able to make some incremental offensive improvements and Witt continues to play at a superstar level in the second half, Kansas City should be able to lean on its pitching to stay competitive in September and get a shot at another postseason appearance.

Verdict: Buy

Texas Rangers

Besides maybe the Orioles, no team in MLB has disappointed more than the Rangers this year. Coming into the season, the Rangers were viewed as one of the powerhouse teams in the American League. Texas went all-in on offense over the winter, adding Joc Pederson and Jake Burger to a World Series-winning core of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Adolís Garcia, plus year two of Wyatt Langford.

But so far, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the Rangers’ offense. Semien started the season as the worst hitter in baseball. Garcia has looked like a shell of himself, leading to manager Bruce Bochy benching him multiple days in a row. Seager had back-to-back trips to the injured list due to hamstring injuries. And the team’s two biggest offensive acquisitions haven’t delivered what the team hoped for.

Surprisingly, the thing that has gone right for Texas was actually their biggest question coming into the season. The Rangers’ starting pitching has kept them out of the cellar of the American League, as Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Leiter have been arguably the best rotation in baseball thus far. Texas’ starter ERA is second in MLB at 2.90, and the Rangers’ rotation has allowed the second-fewest earned runs.

Does the Rangers’ slow start make them candidates to be sellers at the deadline? It’s likely going to be a sellers’ market this season, and with so many teams in search of starting pitching, the Rangers could capitalize on other teams’ needs. However, the thing that will likely keep them from selling is the fact that they play in the AL West, possibly baseball’s weakest division so far in 2025. Between their stellar starting pitching and the hope that their offense bounces back, Texas probably won’t wave the white flag. Will there be an offer that’s too good for Texas to pass up?