Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Cardinals play a four-game series at Citi Field beginning on Thursday at 7:10 p.m. on SNY.
Preview
Is the elite version of Kodai Senga back?
Senga lost most of last season due to injury, but he was the best version of himself during his one regular season start in 2024 — firing 5.1 innings of two-run ball against the Braves while throwing 52 of 73 pitches for strikes and fanning nine batters.
Of course, Senga left that start after hurting his calf — an injury that cost him the remainder of the regular season and left him behind the eight ball during the minor postseason contributions he made upon his return.
During Senga’s first two starts of 2025, he more than held his own, allowing just two earned runs in 10.0 innings while striking out 12. But during his recent outing against the Athletics, he was utterly dominant, needing just 79 pitches to get through 7.0 shutout innings while walking two and striking out four.
In that start in Sacramento, Senga’s ghost fork was extra filthy and his fastball consistently reached 97 mph, topping out at 97.6 — the fastest he has thrown so far this season.
If Senga consistently resembles the version of himself who was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2023, the Mets — who now have Clay Holmes pitching very well and Sean Manaea on the horizon — should be in very strong shape rotation-wise.
The pitching situation
Griffin Canning was scratched from Wednesday’s start due to illness, with Huascar Brazoban getting the start as an opener.
With Canning unavailable, the Mets optioned Max Kranick to Triple-A Syracuse in order to call up Justin Hagenman, who was sharp in his major league debut on Wednesday against the Twins.
The Mets will have the option of bringing Kranick back on Thursday as a replacement on the roster for the injured Jose Siri — if Siri is placed on the IL as expected.
Meanwhile, Canning is set to pitch Thursday’s series-opener against St. Louis.
Is Mark Vientos’ turnaround in progress?
Vientos hasn’t hit much this season, with a .145/.254/.210 triple slash and OPS+ of 37.
Most glaring has been Vientos’ lack of power. He has four doubles, but has yet to homer after cracking 27 long balls in just 111 games in 2024.
But Vientos has a six-game on-base streak, has hit safely in his last four games, and has looked more comfortable at the plate recently.
Vientos’ strikeout rate is just 19.7 percent (it was 29.7 percent last season), and his outrageously low BABIP of .188 (his career BABIP is .287) suggests he’s been incredibly unlucky and is due for a rebound.
The Cardinals have been better than expected
St. Louis attempted to trade cornerstone third baseman Nolan Arenado during the offseason ahead of a season that is expected to be transitional.
But Arenado remains, and the Cards have been solid — with a 9-9 record and +10 run differential.
Their 94 runs scored were the third-most in baseball entering play Wednesday night, and their pitching has been holding its own.
It seems unlikely the Cards will be a serious playoff threat this year with their eye still very much on the future, but for now, they’re a formidable opponent.
Can the Mets get to Sonny Gray?
St. Louis has Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, and Gray lined up to start against the Mets.
Gray, who finished second in NL Cy Young voting in 2023 and posted a 3.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP last season, has been great so far.
In 23.0 innings over four starts, Gray has a 3.13 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, and has allowed just 15 hits.
He has been a bit susceptible to the home run ball — allowing four dingers so far — but his other numbers are excellent, including a minuscule walk rate of 1.2 per nine.
Predictions
Who will the MVP of the series be?
Mark Vientos
The signs of a breakout are there.
Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?
Kodai Senga
Senga will look to build off his strong early-season performance, and should be fresh after throwing just 79 pitches in his last start.
Which Cardinals player will be a thorn in the Mets’ side?
Brendan Donovan
Donovan has been on fire to start the year.
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