March Madness bracketology: NCAA tournament bubble predictions, new No. 1 seed

We’re less than a week until this whole deal becomes official.

Before hitting Selection Sunday, conference tournaments will determine which teams burst the NCAA bubble, which Cinderella teams serve as bid stealers and which four teams land on the No. 1 line.

There are changes at the top of the updated USA TODAY Sports bracketology as Florida rises and replaces Connecticut, which ended the regular season with a thud by losing to Marquette.

That loss handed the Big East regular-season crown to rival St. John’s and likely results in the Huskies earning a No. 2 seed.

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Meanwhile, the defending national champs have rounded into form by winning 11 in a row to win the SEC regular-season title by three games. This torrid run more than offsets Florida’s non-conference loss to UConn and has the Gators in position to secure a No. 1 seed by avoiding an early exit from the conference tournament.

The bubble remains a mess. Virginia Commonwealth has joined the field. For now, Indiana slides in as the last at-large team in the field despite a 3-11 mark against Quad 1 and a 3-2 record Quad 2 competition. But there’s hope for Cincinnati, West Virginia, Auburn and others to make a move in conference tournaments.

Eight teams have already punched their tournament tickets in Long Island (Northeast), Queens (Atlantic Sun), High Point (Big South), Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), Tennessee State (Ohio Valley), Furman (Southern Conference), North Dakota State (Summit League) and Troy (Sun Belt.).