March Madness bracket tracker: Men's NCAA Tournament locks, bubble teams

Nearly all of men’s college basketball is through with the regular season, and only conference tournaments await before March Madness is fully underway.

Thirty-one automatic bids will be awarded over the next week via conference tournament winners. Another 37 at-large bids are up for grabs, although numerous teams are virtual locks for the NCAA Tournament already.

REQUIRED READING: March Madness bubble watch: Pressure builds in final week of regular season

Will there be any bid stealers in 2026? Conference tournaments provide bubble teams with one final chance to boost their resumes prior to sweating out Selection Sunday.

Here’s a look at the latest NCAA Tournament projections heading into conference tournament week in men’s college basketball:

March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker

Based on games through Saturday, March 7

NCAA Tournament locks

ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami, Clemson
Big 12 (6): Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, Brigham Young
Big Ten (8): Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, UCLA
SEC (7): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Other (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Saint Louis

Each team on the locks list has a 99.9% chance or better to reach the NCAA Tournament, per Torvik’s “TourneyCast.”

Wisconsin has risen into lock territory after a strong February saw the Badgers finish 4-3 with a pair of top-10 wins over Illinois and Michigan State. Although Kentucky has lost four of its last six games, its ranked wins over Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas and St. John’s is enough for a bid.

Saint Mary’s will compete with Gonzaga for the WCC title, but defeated the Bulldogs on Feb. 28 and has a 27-4 record this season. That resume alone is enough to be a lock for the tournament.

NCAA Tournament likely ins

SEC (3): Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri

This late in the season, most teams are either NCAA tournament locks or bubble teams — hence the short list of teams as “likely ins.” It would take disaster for most, if not all, of these teams to not reach the 2026 men’s NCAA Tournament. However, the chance is still there for a meltdown.

Each team listed as a likely-in program has a 70% chance or higher to earn an at-large bid, per “TourneyCast.”

NCAA Tournament bubble teams

ACC (4): Southern Methodist, Virginia Tech, California, Stanford, Southern California
Big 12 (3): Cincinnati, Arizona State, West Virginia
SEC (2): Auburn, Oklahoma
Other (5): Miami (Ohio), San Diego State, Santa Clara, VCU, New Mexico

Miami (Ohio) still hasn’t lost this season, but will only feel comfortable heading into Selection Sunday if it wins the MAC tournament. The RedHawks rank No. 53 in the NCAA’s Net Rankings and haven’t played any Quad 1 games, which will make it tough to earn an at-large bid should they lose the MAC tournament.

San Diego State, Santa Clara, VCU and New Mexico are in a similar boat as non-Power conference teams. Santa Clara likely has the best chance of earning an at-large bid, although its chances of winning the WCC are slim over Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga.

Auburn has seen its chances plummet in recent weeks, losing eight of its last 10 games under first-year coach Steven Pearl. Oklahoma has since its chances go from zero to slim during Auburn’s fall, with wins in five of its last seven games. The Sooners would need to make quite the run at the SEC tournament to have an at-large shot.

The ACC tournament will also be interesting, as five teams are fighting for their lives on the bubble. Perhaps whichever teams do the most at the conference tournament will earn the NCAA Tournament nods.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket tracker: Men’s NCAA Tournament locks, bubble teams

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