This is a great week to play your Free Hit chip, with three of the league’s worst defences – Leeds, Burnley and Wolves – on the road against in-form attacks.
Manchester City host struggling Leeds, who have lost their past three games and conceded 15 on the road this season, so Erling Haaland is straight back in as captain.
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It’s not a case of if he will score, but how many he will bag.
The team of the week are selected based on current FPL prices to fit within a £100m budget, as if you were playing a Free Hit.
Don’t miss our FPL special Q&A with expert Pras, live on the BBC Sport website on Friday at 15:30 GMT.
How did last week’s team do?
A bit of a stinker. Leaving Haaland out did not backfire, but making Mohamed Salah captain did with a measly four-pointer.
Joachim Andersen (10 points) and Yankuba Minteh (11) were the stars but those were the only returns. We managed only 38 points.
FPL team of the week for gameweek 13
[BBC Sport]
Keeper and defence
Jordan Pickford, Everton, goalkeeper, £5.5m – Newcastle (h)
Everton’s back four and keeper were so impressive against Manchester United on Monday night, and they have a good chance to continue that form against a Newcastle side that have been fairly toothless on the road.
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Eddie Howe’s team have three goals, no wins and only three points from six games away from home, while Everton have let in only five at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Pickford is getting a clean sheet every three games this season. This is a good chance for another one.
Nico O’Reilly, Manchester City, £5m – Leeds (h)
City’s game at home to Leeds is the one to target this week, and O’Reilly is the defender with the most upside.
There is always a worry that Pep roulette takes hold and Rayan Ait-Nouri gets a start at left-back, but O’Reilly has started all but one Premier League game since week four.
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In the past six gameweeks, he is the third-highest-scoring defender behind Daniel Munoz and Gabriel, with 37 points.
O’Reilly’s nine shots in that time is a league high for defenders, while he has a goal, two assists and three big chances created.
Matty Cash, Aston Villa, £4.6m – Wolves (h)
Will Wolves ever get any better? Until they show signs of life they are the team to target in FPL.
Cash is another defender who has had a decent past six weeks, with 27 points in six games, including a goal against Manchester City.
He has the right-back slot locked down and, with an expected assists (xA) of 1.0 this season but nothing to show for it, he is definitely due a return.
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Micky van de Ven, Spurs, £4.8m – Fulham (h)
Take away the 3-0 win over Wolves – because everyone scores against them – and Fulham have two goals in their past four games.
They are also one of the poorest away teams so far, with one point from six games and only four goals.
That gives me confidence that a wounded Spurs team can bounce back from their derby humiliation by Arsenal with a clean sheet.
Van de Ven has shown what a goalscoring threat he can be. He might not score again all season but is still worth the punt.
Midfielders
Eberechi Eze, Arsenal, £7.7m – Chelsea (a)
Why not ride the hot hand of London derby hero Eze?
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His hat-trick against Spurs was not out of the blue and he makes this team of the week before because of his underlying statistics.
With 31 shots in 11 starts, Eze leads the way among Arsenal players. He had six in the derby alone.
The only note of caution is that he is yet to have a ‘big chance’ this season. While he has 21 shots in the box, they tend to be from near the edge of the area. His goals against Spurs were all from about 15-16 yards out.
But when you are that good shooting from range, is it really an issue?
Morgan Gibbs-White, Nottingham Forest, £7.3m – Brighton (h)
Speaking of hot streaks, Gibbs-White has three goals in three games for Sean Dyche’s revitalised Forest.
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He scored a 10-pointer in this team of the week in his most recent home game against Leeds, so he comes back in.
Forest have a nice fixture run coming up too, with Wolves away next.
Morgan Rogers, Aston Villa, £6.9m – Wolves (h)
It would be negligent not to target Wolves this week – they have lost five in a row and conceded 27 goals in 12 games.
If you are feeling brave then Donyell Malen is Villa’s most explosive midfield option, with the highest expected goals (xG) of 2.08 this season, four big chances (three more than any other midfielder) and three goals.
But his gametime is not guaranteed and Rogers showed with last week’s double at Leeds what a key part of Villa’s attack he is. His goal and assist threat make him an easy choice this week.
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Phil Foden, Manchester City, £8m – Leeds (h)
Since his two goals against Manchester United in week four, Foden has only one assist, but that does not tell the full story of some fine performances.
For a start, he has created 20 chances. He has had more shots in that period than any City player except Haaland – 14 – and has an xG of 1.29.
This game against struggling Leeds is surely the moment Foden turns underlying data into returns.
Dango Ouattara, Brentford, £6m – Burnley (h)
Burnley have the leakiest defence in the league away from home and are a team to attack this week.
It is a toss-up between Outarra and Kevin Schade for a midfield spot. Per start, they have almost an identical xG of 0.27 and 0.28.
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What swings it Outtara’s way is his 0.88 big chances per 90 minutes compared to Schade’s 0.33.
If you have watched Outarra recently, he always seems to be getting chopped down in the box, so his assist potential is high.
Strikers
Erling Haaland (captain), Manchester City, £14.9m – Leeds (h)
It felt fine to back against Haaland in the past two weeks, with tough games against Liverpool and Newcastle.
Not so this week. Easy captain choice.
Igor Thiago, Brentford, £6.5m, Brentford, £6.5m – Burnley (h)
Seven goals in seven games for Thiago make him hard to ignore. Only Haaland has a better record.
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And a home game against a Burnley side that have let in three goals per game on the road is almost too good to be true.
One word of caution for the long run – Thiago’s non-penalty expected goals (npXG) is only 3.3 yet he has scored nine goals this season.
So if the penalties dry up – he has scored four and missed one – his output might slow down.
Subs bench
Caoimhin Kelleher, Brentford, keeper, £4.5m – Burnley (h)
Danny Welbeck, Brighton, striker, £6.6m – Nottingham Forest (a)
Nordi Mukiele, Sunderland, defender, £4.2m – Bournemouth (h)
Chris Richards, Crystal Palace, defender, £4.6m – Manchester United (h)
Team total cost: £97.1m
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