Last-minute bracket advice, picks as first round of March Madness begins; Texas melts down in First Four

This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ AM Newsletter, the ultimate guide to every day in sports. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday morning here.

Happy Thursday, happy first day of spring … and happy first round of the men’s NCAA Tournament, everyone! I’d argue today is the best sports day of the year, and that starts with you getting your brackets in if you haven’t yet. The deadline for the Men’s Bracket Games is 12:15 p.m. ET, and the deadline for the Women’s Bracket Games is tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. ET. Still looking for help? You’ve come to the right place.

Let’s get right to it.

🏀 Good morning to all, but especially to …

THE MEN’S NCAA TOURNAMENT TEAMS

It’s here, and it’s beautiful. The first round of the men’s NCAA Tournament tips off today, and if you’re like me, you’ll spend all day watching — a truly glorious Thursday. Here’s the full schedule and how to watch.

But if you have real, non-sports responsibilities and can’t get out of them, 1) keep trying and 2) David Cobb ranked every game of the first round, so you know which ones to prioritize. At No. 1 is …

• Cobb: “1. (7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas, today, 7:10 p.m. on CBS — Bill Self vs. John Calipari for the right to play Rick Pitino and St. John’s in the second round? Yes, please. Kansas and Arkansas have each suffered through disappointing seasons, but that only adds to the intrigue of a blockbuster primetime matchup between huge brands led by two of the faces of the sport.”

That’s the only game in the top five that takes place today, but (8) Louisville vs. (9) Creighton comes in sixth on David’s list, and it’s the first game of the day — a truly unmatched feeling when that one tips off.

If you’re still working on those brackets, Matt Norlander has a cheat sheet full of all the information you need to know. Want to nail an early upset? Take note.

• Norlander: “30-26: 11-seeds are 30-26 in the first round since 2010. You gotta pick at least one, and probably two, to win Thursday/Friday.”

But which ones?! I ranked the best seed upsets for every seed line, and at 11-6, I went …

• Pereles: “(11) Drake Bulldogs over (6) Missouri Tigers — Since March 1, Missouri is 1-4 and ranks 228th in defensive efficiency. Enter a Drake team led by Missouri Valley Conference player of the year and tournament MVP Bennett Stirtz. … But that’s not the only reason to back the Bulldogs. Drake hits the boards hard — No. 17 in offensive rebound rate — while Missouri ranks 300th in defensive rebound rate. Drake also gets to the free throw line a ton, and Missouri’s defense is below-average in that aspect, too.”

Dennis Dodd has a great story on Drake coach Ben McCollum, too, so that helps.

I also like (11) VCU over (6) BYU, but Dennis’ story on the upstart Cougars may make me rethink that. Oh, and if you want three 11-6 upsets — it happened last year! — Cameron Salerno says (11) North Carolina can not only beat (6) Ole Miss but make a deep run.

Here are our staff’s favorite upset picks.

Our college basketball writers have pumped out so much wonderful preview content, and if you’ve been procrastinating studying and are just now filling your bracket out, I urge you to peruse here. And if you still can’t decide, well, our expert brackets and my 63 picks in 63 sentences can hopefully help.

Here’s more:

😃 Honorable mentions

🏀 And not such a good morning for …

RODNEY TERRY AND THE TEXAS LONGHORNS

(11) Texas‘ frustrating, up-and-down season ended in predictably frustrating, up-and-down fashion. The Longhorns melted down late in an 86-80 First Four loss to (11) Xavier, a game Texas led by 13 in the first half.

We must credit the Musketeers. Marcus Foster (22 points, 16 after halftime) was terrific, his drastically improved 3-pointer on display. Xavier shot 48% (12 for 25) from 3 overall and simply never went away.

Texas, meanwhile, went quietly, as its late-game execution was a mess. Star freshman Tre Johnson delivered 23 points in what was likely his final game. The Longhorns were outscored 16-6 over the final six minutes.

Was it also Rodney Terry‘s last six minutes as Texas coach? Rumors have swirled, and Cameron called the way the Longhorns lost “indefensible and inexcusable.” Yikes.

In the other First Four game, (16) Mount St. Mary’s beat (16) American, 83-72.

😧 Not so honorable mentions

🏀 Women’s NCAA Tournament: Ranking top players, Cinderella candidates

The Women’s NCAA Tournament got underway last night with (11) Iowa State topping (11) Princeton, 68-63, and (16) Southern beating (16) UC San Diego, 68-56, in the first two First Four games.

Audi Crooks had 27 points for the Cyclones, and she’s a huge reason Iowa State landed among our Cinderella picks. Jack Maloney’s pick for that group is …

• Maloney: “(12) Green Bay — The Phoenix play a style that lends itself to upsets. They shoot it well from 3-point range (36%, 26th in the country), play extremely slow (64.1 pace, 340th) and take care of the ball (15.5% turnover rate, 21st). Plus, they have a veteran squad with seven seniors and a junior in their rotation.”

There’s a difference between a Cinderella — a team that captures the nation’s heart on an unlikely run — and a dark horse. Dark horses can actually win it all, and we have a list of dark horses, too, led by one of the nation’s most decorated programs.

Going from dark horses to bright stars, Jack analyzed the top 10 players in the tournament, and in a hotly contested battle for No. 1, he goes with …

• Maloney: “1. Paige Bueckers, G, UConn — Bueckers probably isn’t going to win Naismith Player of the Year this season, but there’s no one you’d rather have on your side come tourney time. The projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft is an elite scorer and playmaker who was one free throw away from a 50/40/90 season and led the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (3.9). Every season that she’s been healthy, she’s taken UConn to at least the Final Four.”

Jack also has the top 25 WNBA Draft prospects in the tournament.

🏈 Ranking top NFL teams, examining rule change proposals

Free agency has died down. Has it shaken up the pecking order in either conference? Jeff Kerr ranked all of the NFC teams, and the top five is …

1. Eagles — “The core of the Eagles is still in place, including 10 of 11 starters on offense.”
2. Lions — “The biggest gain for the Lions are all the players they’ll get back on defense.”
3. Commanders — “The Commanders are a conference title contender with Jayden Daniels at quarterback.”
4. Vikings — “They significantly improved the offensive line … Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen are massive upgrades on the interior of the defensive line.”
5. Rams — “Their top-end talent is good enough to get to the Super Bowl.”

That top-end talent includes new addition Davante Adams, who topped Cody Benjamin’s top 10 offseason moves so far. Here’s Jordan Dajani’s AFC rankings as well.

Though player movement is quiet, there’s another big development: rule change proposals. Here are some big ones:

• The Packers want the Tush Push banned.
• The Lions want the playoff seeding system overhauled (I like it) and want defensive holding/illegal contact to not result in automatic first downs.
• The Eagles want regular-season overtime rules in the playoffs.

Voting could happen later this month at the owners meetings. Changes require 24 of the 32 owners’ approval.

📺 What we’re watching Thursday

🏀 We’re watching the men’s NCAA Tournament. Here’s how.
🏀 (11) Washington vs. (11) Columbia (W), 7 p.m. on ESPN2
🏀 Nets at Pacers, 7 p.m. on NBA TV
⚽ USMNT vs. Panama, 7 p.m. on Paramount+
🏒 Canucks at Blues, 7:30 p.m. on ESPN+ | Hulu | Disney+
🏀 (16) William & Mary vs. (16) High Point (W), 9 p.m. on ESPN2
⚽ Canada vs. Mexico, 10:30 p.m. on Paramount+