The Los Angeles Lakers have secured their spot in the playoffs. Now, with six games remaining in the regular season, they have a chance to solidify their claim to the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference.
LA’s path is relatively simple: four wins, or four Denver Nuggets losses, or a combination of two Lakers wins and two Nuggets losses would keep them in the third seed at the end of the season. With two tanking teams in the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz, that should be more than feasible — but getting at least a split in an upcoming two-game series against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder would be crucial for the Lakers, and for Luka Doncic’s MVP campaign.
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The top six in the Western Conference are pretty close to set, with the current sixth seed, the Minnesota Timberwolves, holding a 4.5-game lead over the Phoenix Suns entering Thursday. The Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and Nuggets are all locked in, along with the Lakers. The Houston Rockets can clinch on Thursday night with a Suns loss.
Here’s a quick rundown of possible first-round playoff matchups the Lakers may face, ranked from most to least desirable.
Phoenix Suns
This is an unlikely matchup as the Suns trail the current sixth-seed Timberwolves by 4.5 games and are almost certainly bound for the play-in.
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Phoenix has had LA’s number this season, winning three of their four matchups, but the Lakers have been a different team over the last month, while the Suns have scuffled down the stretch, losing seven of their last 10 games, including a six-game skid from March 13-21. Ranked 13th in USA TODAY Sports’ latest NBA power rankings, the Suns have been stuck in the middle of the pack in the West for months now. Part of it is due to injury — longtime LeBron James pest Dillon Brooks was having a breakout year individually, putting up a career-high 20.6 points on 43.8% in 30.4 minutes per game.
That, along with his usual physical style of play on defense helped him emerge as a key contributor in Phoenix until he fractured his left hand on Feb. 21 and missed 18 consecutive games before returning last Tuesday in a 115-111 loss to the Orlando Magic that handed the division to the Lakers. The Suns (42-33) went 9-9 in Brooks’ absence.
Houston Rockets
When the Rockets traded for Kevin Durant last summer, it was supposed to take them from a fun team of young up-and-comers to the upper echelons of the Western Conference. That looked to be the case early in the season, but they eventually middled out as they dealt with growing pains and another KD burner account scandal.
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Houston (47-29) currently has a half-game advantage over the Timberwolves in a heated battle for the fifth seed. The Rockets have size and athleticism, two things that have proven to be matchup nightmares for the Lakers in the playoffs the last few years, but this Lakers squad got two big wins over them on March 16 and 18, so they’ve shown that this is a team they can handle.
Minnesota Timberwolves
This is who the Lakers would face if the season ended today, and it’s also the one with the most question marks.
The Wolves swept the Lakers in the first round a year ago (see: size and athleticism), but the Lakers swept the season series this year. Last year, the Lakers were horribly outmatched with no bona fide center to stop Rudy Gobert as Jaxson Hayes was basically unplayable. Hayes has improved by leaps and bounds this season with a full year of playing next to Doncic, not to mention this is why Rob Pelinka signed Deandre Ayton, who seems to have finally bought in and has been key in the Lakers’ late-season surge.
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One more thing to keep an eye on: Minnesota ruled Anthony Edwards out of Thursday’s game against the Detroit Pistons with an illness and right knee injury management, putting him below the 65-game threshold and making him ineligible for end-of-season awards. There could now possibly be a scenario in which the Timberwolves shut down Edwards for the remainder of the season, giving him a chance to enter the playoffs rested and as close to 100% as possible.
Denver Nuggets
For the last few years, Lakers-Nuggets games have felt like the myth of Sisyphus. The Lakers would get out to a quick start, build a big lead and look to be well on their way to victory until Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray make some insane shots that defy logic and all of a sudden, Denver wins and the rock rolls all the way back to the bottom of the hill.
But two weeks ago, fate seemed to finally go the other way when the Lakers rallied against Denver for what felt like their biggest win of the season when Austin Reaves got his own putback from a missed free throw with 1.9 seconds left to tie the game at 118 and force overtime, where Luka Doncic eventually hit an 18-foot stepback fadeaway over Spencer Jones to take a two point lead with 0.5 seconds left to seal the game.
The Lakers are 2-1 against Denver this season (2-0 when Doncic plays), so they’re not nearly as outmatched as their recent playoff history might suggest. The Nuggets are also currently the fourth seed in the West, so a first-round meeting probably won’t happen unless they crash and burn over their remaining five games. Either way, this still would be the worst of their hypothetical first-round matchups.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking LA Lakers best playoff matchups as postseason looms
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