The Lakers looked like they would be stuck in the 9/10 Play-In game against the Warriors for most of the final stretch of the season. Instead, they worked like hell, finished their season off strong and moved into No. 8 in the standings on the last day of the season with a big win against the Pelicans.
Now, instead of needing to win two games to make the playoffs, Los Angeles will simply have to win one.
That sounds like a great outcome, and it does greatly increase the team’s chances of making the playoffs. It also provides the Lakers with more options. One, which initially sounds crazy, is to try and lose that first Play-In game.
Here’s why that does and doesn’t make sense.
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Why the Lakers should try and lose against the Pelicans
The seeding at the top of the Western Conference was up in the air until the last day of the season. It broke in a very unlucky way for the Lakers.
The Thunder, who the Lakers have dominated this season, ended up as the No. 1 seed. The Nuggets, who have dominated the Lakers both this year and during last season’s playoffs, ended up at No. 2. The winner of the Lakers vs. Pelicans game will face that Nuggets juggernaut in the 2-7 matchup.
The Lakers would be gigantic underdogs to the Nuggets in that first-round series. They have lost eight straight games, dating back to last year’s regular season. They haven’t come up with a great solution to guard either Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray. Denver put so much pressure on targeting X-Factor D’Angelo Russell defensively in last season’s playoffs that he was removed from the starting lineup by the end of it.
If the Lakers did throw that matchup to meet the Thunder instead in the 1-8 series, they’d be facing a team with far less playoff experience who they match up better against. The Thunder are a smaller team, and the Lakers have used their size advantage well. That series would be much more of a coin flip as compared to essentially drawing dead against the Nuggets.
The Lakers also might completely avoid the Nuggets buzzsaw if they entered the playoffs as the No. 8 seed instead of No. 7. Looking ahead, if they did manage to beat the Thunder, they would face the winner of Clippers vs. Mavericks. The Nuggets would face the winner of Suns vs. Timberwolves.
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The Wolves gave the Nuggets the most trouble of anyone in last year’s playoffs, according to Bruce Brown Jr. The same has held true this year, where the teams split their season series 2-2. The unique height of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns is about as good of a duo as you can hope for in slowing down the Nuggets’ offense. Minnesota would be underdogs, but it could take out Denver completely.
This best-case outcome of dodging the Nuggets might happen naturally for the Lakers. LeBron and Co. have played extremely well against the Pelicans, blowing them out by 44 points in the In-Season Tournament semifinals and winning in convincing fashion by 16 points again on Sunday. Despite that, they somewhat surprisingly opened as 1.5-point underdogs per NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM.
That line could be a hedge against Anthony Davis’ health. Davis exited Sunday’s game with hip and back spasms after playing 33 minutes. He is obviously extremely important to the Lakers. Holding him out in a game that they might lose anyway would keep him very fresh for a must-win game to take the eighth seed against the winner of Kings vs. Warriors.
That game wouldn’t be a shoo-in either. The Lakers are a combined 1-7 against the two Northern California teams this year. But that gives them the most likely path to the NBA Finals, and they did beat Curry in a similar Play-In situation a few years ago.
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Why the Lakers shouldn’t tank the first Play-In game
If the Lakers did lose the first Play-In game, they would still have home-court advantage in their next must-win game. But they’d have a much higher chance of missing the playoffs altogether. It is anything but a guarantee that they’d beat the Kings or Warriors. That win against Golden State in the 2021 Play-In game was by only three points off a clutch LeBron 3.
The Lakers will also probably have to face the Nuggets at some point anyway if they want to make the Finals. The Suns and Wolves are both good teams, but Denver would clearly be favored against both. It might be better to meet the Lakers now when they are relatively healthy rather than later in the playoffs, when a 39-year-old LeBron will be more worn out.
Practically speaking, there’s no way that the Lakers would throw their game against the Pelicans. It would be far too risky and a PR nightmare. But if they did end up losing naturally and everything else fell into place perfectly, it might secretly be a blessing in disguise.
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