Knicks vs Nuggets Computer Picks: Our Best Player Prop Projections for March 6

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Our computer has crunched the numbers to come up with the best data-driven NBA picks for this premier matchup on Friday, March 6.

Knicks vs Nuggets computer picks for March 6

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Knicks computer picks

Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 points (-115)

Projection: 16.2 points

Mikal Bridges has been up-and-down in the points department of late, clearing this prop in five of his last 10 overall. However, our projections see a +17.25% EV edge on his Over tonight, making this a four-star play.

Our system expects the New York Knicks shooting guard to take advantage of a positive positional matchup with the Denver Nuggets.

“Over the last 5 games when they are on the road, the opposing team’s starting SGs have averaged 20.4 points per game (2nd-highest in the league) against the Denver Nuggets, branding this as a good matchup for offensive efficiency.”

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Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points (-120)

Projection: 19.5 points

Karl-Anthony Towns has been streaky when it comes to scoring lately, clearing this Over five straight times before going on his current 1-4 O/U run. But our system suggests Towns will blow by this line by two full points tonight.

Offensive rebounding will tell the story of this play.

“Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the New York Knicks grade out 5th-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.”

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Mitchell Robinson Over 4.5 points (-125)

Projection: 5.6 points

Mitchell Robinson sat out of Thursday’s matchup with the Thunder in order to be ready for this date with Denver.

Robinson primarily plays as Karl-Anthony Towns’ backup and has thrived in the role of late, clearing this line in 13 of his last 19 overall. That includes a 10-point effort vs. the Nuggets on February 4.

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Nuggets computer picks

Aaron Gordon Over 10.5 points (-110)

Projection: 12.5 points

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Aaron Gordon has cashed this Over in nine of his last 10 overall, and he’s projected to make it 10 of 11 tonight. In fact, our player prop projections believe he’ll vault over this line by two full points, good for a +21.47% EV.

Look for Gordon to get some of those points at the foul line tonight.

“Over the last 5 games, the opposing team’s starting PFs have attempted 5.2 free throws per game (5th-highest in the NBA) vs. the New York Knicks, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.”

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Cameron Johnson Over 10.5 points (+100)

Projection: 11.6 points

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Cameron Johnson is a game-time decision after not suiting up on Thursday. If he plays, he’s a good bet to clear his point prop based on the positional matchup.

“The matchup against New York is a favorable one for three-point shots; when the Knicks are away from home, the opposing team’s starting SFs have put up the highest three rate in the NBA this year (48.0%).”

Johnson’s Over 1.5 3-pointer prop holds a +7.02% EV, but his overall point prop is at +16.66% EV.

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Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 assists (-105)

Projection: 8.9 assists

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Nikola Jokic is slowing down in the triple-double department as the season hits the homestretch. Part of his downfall has been in the assists department, as he’s gone below this line in five of his last eight games.

Our computer is calling for another slow night for Jokic, literally.

“The third-least up-tempo pace home offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Denver Nuggets. The Knicks have played at the fifth-least up-tempo [pace] in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Denver Nuggets.”

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