In a shocking turn of events, Mets superstar Juan Soto— who posted a .421 OBP and .953 OPS during the first seven years of his big league career as he established himself as one of the best hitters on the planet — again looks like the hitter he was from 2018 to 2024.
He seems pretty happy to be a Met, too.
As you take some time for these stunners to wear off, let’s recap the first two-plus months of Soto’s Mets tenure, which has included some hilarious screeching from a few areas of the New York media ecosystem about him longing for the Yankees.
But forgive us if we don’t think Soto has been crying himself to sleep while staring at pictures of Monument Park.
Now, let’s go back in time about 10 days.
On May 30, Mets president of baseball operationsDavid Stearns was understandably peppered with questions about Soto, who to that point was slashing .224/.352/.393 with a .745 OPS in 247 plate appearances over 55 games.
It was a large enough sample size to ask Stearns what he thought might be “wrong.” Even at that point, Soto had been elite when it came to 12 of the 13 main advanced stats tracked by Baseball Savant. And his BABIP was at a career-low level. But not enough hits were falling.
And while Soto was continuing to execute well, he did appear to lack the confidence and command at the plate that is his trademark. He wasn’t owning at-bats like usual. He wasn’t elevating the ball enough.
He also wasn’t using his signature Soto Shuffle much.
Combine the above with the fact that Soto just happens to be playing his first season as a Met after bolting the Yankees to sign the biggest contract in the history of North American sports, and you have what many correctly thought was a dream narrative.
Here’s what Stearns said at the time:
“I think he’s taking pretty good at-bats, he’s controlling the strike zone pretty well. He’s hitting the ball on the ground a little bit more than he has in the past. I think that’s something that he’s aware of. But telling yourself, ‘Hey, I need to hit the ball in the air more,’ doesn’t immediately translate to hitting the ball in the air more.
“Do I think he’s trying to do a little too much right now? Yeah, I think he’s probably trying to do a little bit too much right now. And that is natural for a player who cares about improving.”
Stearns added:
“He’s still helping us win games. I’m aware that the OPS isn’t where he would want it, it’s not where we would want it, it’s not where our fans would want it. I get that. But I can say it’s not for lack of work behind the scenes. He’s working, he’s trying. He certainly wants results at a higher level than what we’ve seen so far. I’m pretty confident we’re going to get those.”
Since those comments from Stearns, Soto has looked like vintage Soto in every way imaginable.
Over his last 10 games, Soto is hitting .364/.553/.697 with three homers, two doubles, 12 runs scored, six RBI, 13 walks, and four strikeouts.
He put an exclamation point on his recent performance by reaching base six times on Sunday in Colorado.
During this span, Soto has raised his OPS for the season from .745 to .820. His OPS+ is up to 138.
His swing is smooth and level. He’s controlling at-bats and oozing confidence. He is shuffling again, and giving opposing pitchers his menacing nod during at-bats.
In other words, Soto is back.
Soto’s BABIP is still quite low for him (.254 compared to his career average BABIP of .301), so it’s fair to believe there’s still a lot more natural climbing to the mean in store for him.
And again, it wasn’t hard to see this coming when looking at his advanced stats from the first two months leading up to his breakout that started on May 30.
Many people don’t like to have advanced stats cited to them when a player on their team is struggling, but guess what? They’re often predictive, and they’re a great resource to turn to when trying to figure out whether the numbers a player is putting up (whether they’re positive or negative) are sustainable.
Soto’s advanced stats told us he was due to break out. That he was basically still the same hitter he had always been.
Common sense also told us that this breakout was coming, as bad as some wanted to create some crazy narrative that he was sad because his pinstripes weren’t navy anymore.
Take a look at those advanced stats now, and you’ll see that Soto is in the 100th percentile when it comes to chase percentage and walk percentage. He’s also near the top of the league in xwOBA (98th percentile), xBA (94th percentile), xSLG (97th percentile), hard hit percentage (96th percentile), average exit velocity (95th percentile), squared-up percentage (92nd percentile), barrel percentage (87th percentile), strikeout rate (82nd percentile), whiff percentage (75th percentile), and bat speed (74th percentile).
In addition to the shuffling and nodding, Soto is smiling, bottle-flipping mid-game, posing for pictures in the dugout with his teammates, and racing out to partake in postgame celebrations.
Soto is rolling, the team is rolling, and he looks pretty damn happy to be a Met.
Who would’ve thought?
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