Last year, Arizona State was picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll. The Sun Devils stunned college football by overcoming a slow start, developing offensive playmakers and coming out of nowhere to win the Big 12.
One year later, could Cincinnati do the same?
The Bearcats pulled an early stunner in college football’s Week 6, shocking No. 14 Iowa State 38-30. Cincinnati jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter and held on against the formerly undefeated Cyclones to pull into a tie for first place in the Big 12 standings at 2-0.
Cincinnati sits at 4-1 heading into manageable games against UCF and Oklahoma State over the next two weeks. The Bearcats should garner AP Top 25 votes, and can enter the polls for the first time since Luke Fickell departed if they take care of business.
In a Big 12 that’s wide open for a trip to Arlington, everything remains on the table. Arizona State followed a specific model to shock the college football world; Cincinnati is well on its way to replicating it.
A star emerges
Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby put together a strong start to the 2024 season. In 2025, he’s hit another level. The junior quarterback from Denton, Texas, has done it all with both his arm and legs to keep the Bearcats chugging along.
The Bearcats’ offense struggled in the opener against Nebraska, so Sorsby ran for 96 yards and two scores. In his two other FBS games leading into Iowa State, he threw for a combined 721 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions. Against Iowa State, Sorsby did it all, throwing for 214 yards, rushing for 65 and scoring three total touchdowns to pace the team.
For Arizona State, it was the emergence of running back Cameron Skattebo, who finished No. 2 in all-purpose yards. Sorsby entered the weekend No. 6 in total offense, and should move even higher after another strong game.
Excelling in the trenches
Perhaps the most unexpected part of Arizona State’s rise last season was its improvement on the lines. The Sun Devils were lower-tier along the offense line in 2023, but stability at the quarterback and running back positions helped the group progress to one of the best in the Big 12.
Cincinnati has enjoyed a similar rise. The Bearcats added highly-touted left tackle transfer Joe Cotton over the offseason to join multiple players with three or more years of experience. Against an Iowa State team that’s played the run well this year, it helped set up a run of 200 yards rushing in the first half alone.
Defensive tackle Dontay Corleone has been one of the best in the nation when healthy, but the rest of the unit is also stepping up to the plate. The Cyclones averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per carry, and Cincinnati has stayed on schedule with Corleone out of the lineup. It’s been a slow build, but it’s finally starting to bear fruits.
Riding close results
The Bearcats actually haven’t been quite as bad as their record over the past two years. After the Nebraska game, they had lost nine of their last 10 one-score games dating back to Scott Satterfield’s first season, and historically struggled to manage late-game situations. The low was a 28-27 loss to Pittsburgh last season when they bungled a 27-6 lead late in the third quarter.
However, the win against Iowa State marked their second straight one-score win to start Big 12 play, the first time Satterfield has accomplished the feat since taking over Cincinnati. The Bearcats scored a critical touchdown in the fourth quarter to put the game out of reach, and pulled off a game-winner with 29 seconds remaining against Kansas.
These are the plays that Cincinnati has not made while missing bowls each of the last two years. But more importantly, Arizona State was 6-1 in one-score games in 2024. There are years where the ball just bounces right. It seems to be that way for the Bearcats.
Race to the finish
Before the season, Kansas State was the preseason co-favorite to win the Big 12. The Wildcats sit at 2-4 after a brutal loss to Baylor. Outside of No. 11 Texas Tech — the prohibitive favorite to win the league — Iowa State was considered the chief competition. Cincinnati has a win and tiebreaker.
The Red Raiders hold +155 odds to win the Big 12. Arizona State has an edge at +500 as the reigning champ. After the win, Cincinnati is in a tie with Utah at +900 to win the Big 12, according to FanDuel. BYU is close behind at +950, but no one else is closer than 13-to-1.
Looking at the schedule ahead, there’s real reasons for optimism. No. 23 BYU is the only remaining ranked team on the schedule. Baylor and TCU look beatable. Really, the road trip to Utah is the one brutal development ahead.
The Big 12 was the most upwardly mobile power conference in the country last year. So, sitting at 2-0 in conference play: Why not Cincinnati?
Read the full article here
