Illinois coach Bret Bielema asked, so we answered: How the SEC has fared against Power Four in recent years

The recirculating debate over college football conference supremacy signals we have reached peak offseason. During the SEC’s spring meetings, commissioner Greg Sankey lit the powder keg once more while discussing the future of the College Football Playoff. 

Sankey took veiled shots at the Big 12 and the ACC. He also spent considerable time banging the strength of schedule drum in an argument that the SEC, above all other leages, deserves a strong level of representation in the postseason. 

The SEC even went so far as providing a seven-page document outlining the “regular-season gauntlet” its conference’s members have to run every year. A picture of that document, posted by The Action Network, sparked a wry response from Illinois coach Bret Bielema. 

He challenged the “EXTREMELY talented working group” put together by the SEC to take another look at the numbers with a bit more context. 

So I thought I would answer Bielema’s call. I dove into his specific requests to see what the numbers say about the SEC’s purported dominance. 

Here’s a look at what I found. 

SEC against Power Four in 2024 

Bielema wrote “Maybe 2025 season” in his initial post, but it’s safe to assume that he meant 2024, since the 2025 season has yet to actually play out. This seems like a good place to start, since it was the easiest to calculate and since college football is a what-have-you-done-lately sport. 

The SEC fared very well against power conference foes last regular season: 

So, for those keeping count, the SEC went a combined 13-7 against power opponents during the 2024 regular season. That’s a cool winning percentage of .650. 

But a lot of the recent focus has hovered on the postseason and, more specifically, the College Football Playoff. While the SEC is still undefeated in hypothetical matchups, its actual 2024 postseason showing leaves a bit to be desired. 

Here’s its record in bowls and the most recent College Football Playoff: 

This table does not take into account Oklahoma’s loss to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl, which was a particularly notable blemish on the SEC’s bowl season résumé. 

That record versus the Big Ten in games that matter most certainly stands out. Missouri beat Iowa in December’s Music City Bowl, but that was it. The Big Ten won its two playoff games against the SEC by an average margin of 19.5 points. 

Notre Dame also beat Georgia 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal. The SEC, at 8-7, did have more postseason wins than the Big 12 and the ACC combined, but its record falls well short of the 11-6 mark set by the Big Ten. 

Of course, the Big Ten has won back-to-back national titles, but that still pales in comparison to the four straight produced by the SEC from 2019-22. 

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SEC against Power Four over 10 years 

Historical context certainly matters. Bielema specifically requested that someone look into the SEC’s head-to-head record against power conferences over a 10-year span. That’s particularly interesting since it’s been just over 10 years since the College Football Playoff began. 

That adds up to a 134-104 record against Power Four opponents — not including the Pac-12 — since 2014, or a .563 winning percentage. So the SEC does win more often than not against college football’s cream of the crop. 

The Big Ten did have a winning record against the SEC in 2024, thanks in large part to its postseason dominance, and both the Big 12 and the ACC had winning records against the SEC in 2023. It’s fair to note that Texas and Oklahoma — now in the SEC — alone combined for seven of the Big 12’s 25 victories against the SEC over the past 10 seasons. 

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Strength of record comparison 

The SEC likes to tout both its strength of schedule and its strength of record. It asserts that only two SEC teams have an average strength of record outside of the top 50 nationally over the last 10 years. 

Bielema wanted to get a bit more specific. He points out that name, image and likeness reform and the transfer portal have leveled the playing field a bit. So I calculated the average number of teams, per conference, outside of the top 50 in strength of record and the average strength of record for each conference since 2022, when teams really started to fully utilize both NIL and the portal. 

The data is a bit skewed, because this time frame also coincides with the latest wave of conference realignment, which changes the calculus a bit on a year to year basis. For example, in 2022, the Big 12 had 10 teams. That number grew to 14 in 2023 and ballooned to 16 last season, even with the loss of Texas and Oklahoma. 

Still, around 50% of Big 12 teams dropped outside of the top 50 in SOR on a per-year basis, and the above calculations are sufficient enough to identify general trends. Again, the SEC is ahead of the pack. 

Both the Big Ten and the SEC produced four teams that finished top-10 in SOR. Six of the 10 strongest records came from outside the SEC, though. 

Yes, the SEC is strong, and it’s hard to deny that it has been college football’s hegemon over the past decade. But a zoom into recent numbers shows that the gap, at least between the Big Ten and the SEC, is closing faster than the SEC would have you believe.