Identifying the NBA’s Most Underrated Scorers with FGOE

Scoring ability in the NBA is most often discussed by looking at who is among the league leaders in points per game.

The assumption that players who score the most must be the best scorers makes sense on the surface, but that method of evaluation does nothing to discriminate between efficient scorers and those who simply have a high-usage role. Looking at raw points per game is also an improper way to compare scoring ability across eras.

Put another way – players who score a lot simply because they shoot a lot aren’t the most effective scorers in the league.

Using FTN’s new NBA StatsHub, we can identify underrated scorers and potential breakout stars by looking at Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation.

Explaining Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation

FGOE measures how much better or worse a player’s field goal percentage is compared to league expectation after adjusting for shot location, shot value, and the quality of the defensive contest on the field goal attempt.

In more digestible language, FGOE isolates pure shot-making skill by accounting for more than simply whether or not the ball went in the basket.

Unlike field goal% or true shooting%, FGOE:

Adjusts for shot difficulty
Removes free throws from the equation
Accounts for the quality of the defense on the shot attempt

A player who has a high FGOE is making a higher rate of similar shot types than his peers.

Removing Volume Privilege

Not all high-volume scorers have their numbers inflated simply based on opportunity. Nikola Jokić (+12.6% FGOE), Kevin Durant (+8.9%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+8.1%) are widely regarded as some of the league’s best scorers, and for good reason. Their teams trust them to take a lot of shots, in large part, because of how skilled they are at making them.

Yet, they are not the only players who deserve to be held in high regard for their shot-making ability.

NBA StatsHub has a filter function that allows us to look exclusively at players in smaller roles, who are quietly delivering impressive results over expectation for their respective teams.

Lower Shot Volume (FGA) + High Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation (FGOE)

DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento Kings

During the 2021-2022 campaign, DeMar DeRozan ranked seventh in the NBA in scoring, averaging 27.9 points per game. Since that point, his per-game scoring has taken a major hit – all the way down to 19.0 per game this season — but he’s still making the most of his opportunities.

DeRozan is averaging 6.7 fewer field goal attempts per game than he did in 2021-2022, but he would likely still be putting up big numbers if he was on a team that allowed him to shoot more frequently.

Among 73 players averaging between 10-15 FGA per game this year, nobody has a higher FGOE than DeRozan (+7.0%).

Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets

Is it possible that Kon Knueppel is part of the NBA’s next class of superstars? The fourth overall selection in this past summer’s draft is having a superb rookie season for the Hornets, averaging 19.0 points. Even more impressive, he’s doing so on only 13.6 field goal attempts per game.

Only seven players are averaging more points per game than Knueppel on fewer than 15 shot attempts this season. All seven of those players are established veterans who are well beyond their rookie contracts.

Miles McBride, New York Knicks

Miles McBride is a fan favorite in The Big Apple, and for good reason. Since entering the league, McBride has seen his playing time increase in each subsequent season – all the way up to a career-high 28.3 minutes per game this year.

He’s making the most of his opportunities for the Knicks, averaging 13.1 points while shooting 43.1% from beyond-the-arc. In fact, McBride has the highest FGOE of any New York player so far this season.

Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t the only high-quality player stuck on a bad Milwaukee team. Bobby Portis doesn’t have the athletic upside of Antetokounmpo, but his shot-making ability is up there with the best role players in the league.

Portis is shooting a career-best 47.4% from 3-point territory this season, averaging 13.1 points on only 10.6 field goal attempts per game. If the Bucks choose to be sellers ahead of the league’s trade deadline, there will surely be a number of active suitors hoping to add Portis for their team’s playoff run.

Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers

Nikola Jokić isn’t the only big man in the NBA who makes tough shots look easy. Among centers averaging at least 10 field goal attempts per game this season, Ivica Zubac ranks second in FGOE.

Through 37 games this year, Zubac is averaging 14.8 points on 60.5% shooting – his fifth consecutive season scoring in double figures while shooting north of 60% from the floor. Since 2000, Zubac is one of only seven players to have at least seasons meeting such criteria.

The Takeaway

Through the conclusion of play Tuesday, there are 20 players in the NBA this season averaging at least 25 points per game. On this date a decade ago, only five players were averaging better than 25 points per game.

Suffice it to say, we can no longer simply look at points per game to determine who is a skilled scorer. We need metrics like FGOE to help us determine who is truly performing better than their peers.

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