How has the hit rate been for the 49ers in each round of the NFL Draft?

Rob Lowder and I went through each draft pick under the current regime for the San Francisco 49ers in each round to determine whether they were a hit or a miss.

It goes without saying that these are subjective. We used playing time, contracts, impact, and longevity as qualifiers. There’s the human element, so we were always going to bend the rules. Keep that in mind as you read through these. Let’s get into it.

49ers 1st round picks under Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch

Historical data isn’t consistent in the first round. Some have a median around 50 percent, while others reach 75 percent. We’ll assume that number is somewhere in the middle, even though that still feels a bit high. Finding a consensus with something as subjective as this is impossible.

Solomon Thomas: It seems wrong to call somebody who has accrued nine seasons in the NFL and nearly $44 million a miss. Through no fault of his own, Thomas, a tweener in college, was selected No. 3 overall. He did not live up to expectations or come close to being an impact player, which led us to conclude that Thomas was a miss.

Verdict: Miss

Reuben Foster: Foster ended up playing fewer than 1,000 snaps in his NFL career. We all know about the off-field issues in both college and the pros, so there’s no need to rehash that. My argument for Foster being a hit was because of the type of player he was on the field. He was an enforcer. Foster was an A+ run defender and blitzer.

His physicality was unmatched. Unfortunately, we couldn’t see him play for multiple seasons alongside the linebacker the team drafted the following year, but I’ll always have a blind spot for Foster because of what he was capable of on the field.

Verdict: Split

Mike McGlinchey: Far from a fan favorite, but McGlinchey was an easy answer. McGlinchey has eight accrued seasons and nearly $82 million in total career earnings.

He’s started 115 games in his career, including every game last season for Denver and every game in the final season in 2022. He priced himself out of the Niners market that final year. He’s the epitome of consistency. You know exactly what you are getting.

Verdict: Hit

Nick Bosa: Bosa had a sack in the first game of his career. A year after tearing his ACL, he had 15.5 sacks. He was even better the following year, winning Defensive Player of the Year. I’d argue he was even more impactful the following season when the Niners went to the Super Bowl.

Verdict: Hit

Javon Kinlaw: A move that was unlikely to age well unless Kinlaw turned out to be a superstar. The 49ers parted ways with DeForest Buckner and turned around and drafted a defensive tackle with bad knees. To make matters worse, the 49ers ended up paying a defensive tackle in free agency soon after.

Neither move worked. Another “what if” in this regime is what would have happened if the team had never moved on from Buckner. Kinlaw started every game in the previous two years and has been serviceable. But he missed way too much time during his 49ers tenure to be considered a hit. During the Super Bowl run, Kinlaw wasn’t a starter.

Verdict: Miss

Brandon Aiyuk: This is where you’re going to have to put the recency bias aside and think about the player Aiyuk was and why the 49ers gave him the contract they did.

Here is one way to view Aiyuk: During his rookie year, he had over 800 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns with five receptions of 20+ yards as a rookie with Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard, and Nick Mullens as his quarterbacks.

Four years later, with an aggressive (complimentary) quarterback in his second season, Aiyuk put up top-five-ish numbers and was the head of the snake that was one of the most prolific offenses during the previous decade.

Verdict: Hit

Trey Lance: The president of the “What if club?” What if he played right away? What if there were never any preseason injuries? What if the rookie red zone package from Week 1 against the Lions in 2021 was the plan to slow-roll Lance into taking over as the starter?

You could come up with hundreds of questions involving Lance. We’ll never know.

Verdict: Miss

We’ll give the 2024 and 2025 classes the benefit of the doubt in this exercise. It’s a big year for Ricky Pearsall and Mykel Williams. The Niners upgraded both the wide receiver and defensive line rooms with offseason acquisitions. Pearsall and Williams are being put in positions to succeed.

Remove Foster, and it’s 3-3.

49ers second-round picks under Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch

The hit rates in the second round range from 30 percent to 45 percent.

Dante Pettis: Miss
Deebo Samuel: Hit

In a sport as violent as football, the difference in aggression between Pettis and Samuel speaks volumes to the style of play that wins in the NFL.

Aaron Banks: Hit
Drake Jackson: Miss
Renardo Green/Alfred Collins: TBD

Banks sat behind Laken Tomlinson as a rookie, but has started for four straight seasons playing at least 700 snaps. Banks may have had his worst season as a pro in Green Bay last season. The Packers did a simple restructure of his contract last week.

Jackson never felt like the type of player the 49ers have along their defensive front.

The jury is still out on Green and Collins. We’ll see how different their role will be in 2026 compared to last season.

Hitting on Deebo Samuel after his historic 2021 season makes the second round a success for the organization. He invented the position “wide back.” For the past few seasons during the draft cycle, you’ll hear teams say they’re looking for the next Deebo.

49ers third-round picks under Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch

The hit rates in the third round drop to an average of 15 percent, with the high end topping out at 30 percent.

Ahkello Withersppon: Hit
CJ Beathard: Hit
Tarvarius Moore: Split
Jalen Hurd: Miss
Trey Sermon: Miss
Ambry Thomas: Miss
Tyrion Davis-Price: Miss
Danny Gray: Miss
Ji’Ayir Brown: Hit
Jake Moody: Miss
Cam Latu: Miss

Dominick Puni, Upton Stout, and Nick Martin are all too be determined.

Some of these picks never stood a chance. Here’s a look at the delta for each pick on the consensus mock draft database’s big board:

Davis-Price: -178
Beathard: -136
Martin: -95
Hurd: -64
Latu: -76
Stout: -75

It’s a little surprising not to see Sermon on this list.

The 49ers are still above average after hitting on 33 percent in this round. There are some brutal whiffs in this round, but they also drafted a Hall of Famer who transcended the position.

49ers fourth-round picks under Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch

The hit rates in the fourth round are in the low teens. Some are as low as 10 percent, while the best of the best historically top out around 15 percent.

Kentavius Street – MISS
Mitch Wishnowsky – Split
Isaac Guerendo – TBD/MISS

Barring a breakout season, we know what Guerendo is.

Burford started enough during his rookie contract to warrant being a hit.

I listed Wishnowsky as a miss for his low net average as well, but more so scolding the 49ers for drafting a punter in the first round.

49ers fifth-round picks under Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch

The hit rates in the fifth-round are sliced in half in the fifth round. The best teams are hitting at a 10% clip, while some organizations are hitting at a 5% clip.

Deommodore Lenior – HIT

Without question, the round the 49ers have hit at an obnoxious rate is in the fifth round. Do the 49ers deserve credit for DJ Reed earning $52 million? Probably not. Hufanga had his second All-Pro season in 2025. Lenoir was paid like a top-20 cornerback when he signed his extension. Greenlaw and McKivitz were multi-year starters.

And don’t forget about the tight end.

Remove Womack, and you’re looking at seven hits.

49ers sixth-round picks under Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch

We’re in the territory where you’re lucky to find players to make your roster, let alone start. The average is between 2% and 5%.

Tariq Castro Fields – MISS

In the sixth round, a blocking tight end like Woerner is a perfect example of a hit. Finding A DJ Jones’ level starter is as close to a home run as it gets.

We agreed that Mitchell was a hit after nearly rushing for 1,000 yards as a rookie. Unfortunately, Mitchell’s body couldn’t withstand the rigors of the NFL, but his talent was undeniable. I’ll never forget asking Christian McCaffrey about his impressions of Mitchell, and McCaffrey said, “Elijah is one of the most talented runners that I’ve ever seen.” Hyperbole aside, Mitchell had plenty of flashes in three seasons.

49ers seventh-round picks under Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch

Round 7 is Hail Mary territory. The average is between 0% and 2%.

Purdy is the poster child for seventh-round picks, and it might be that way for a long, long time. He is an anomaly. Purdy is in the 99th percentile, which overshadows how much of an outlier the rest of the players are, who not only made rosters but also reached second contracts.

What do you agree/disagree with? Let us know in the comments. Feel free to head to the feed and make your own list.

Read the full article here