Everybody’s pretty bullish on the Patriots.
It’s logic-based. A better, more experienced and cohesive coaching staff, a mess of free-agent additions, a seemingly well-executed draft and an oughta-be-blossoming franchise quarterback are causes for optimism.
But if the Patriots are going to make the leap from doormat to “competitive” (at least), they need to take care of business in the AFC East. So far they’ve finished third, second, third, last and last in the five seasons AB (after Brady).
They’re 13-17 since 2020 in a division they used to be able to roll out of bed and dominate.
But there’s hope. While Buffalo remains more than a cut above, the Dolphins seem to be taking on water — they dealt Jonnu Smith and Jalen Ramsey to the Steelers on Monday — and the Jets have gone full Jets again.
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That’s a quick flip from the past two years. ESPN’s 2023 preseason power rankings had the Bills and Dolphins fifth and sixth in their power rankings, while the Jets were 13th. Last year, they were seventh, eighth and 15th, respectively.
Now, the Bills are third, Miami is at 20 and the Jets are at 30. And the Patriots — No. 30 last year — are up to 23. Power rankings are no more than a vibe check. But it’s worth digging deeper to see what the Patriots’ primary competition has been up to in the offseason.
Buffalo Bills
2024 record: 13-4
These poor bastards. Since 2020, they’ve won 13, 11, 13, 11 and 13 games. They’ve had their ass kicked out of the playoffs by the Chiefs four times in the last five years, including twice in the AFC Championship. Their most recent losses came by a combined total of 13 points.
People of a certain age know what it was like to be a fan of the doomed, snakebit, accursed teams like the Red Sox and Patriots prior to 2001. My indoctrination started in 1976 with the Patriots and then rolled right into the Sox in 1977.
I think the Bills’ plight is comparably traumatic to what Red Sox fans experienced. Anyway, Buffalo is still really friggin’ good.
Josh Allen is the reigning MVP. They added defensive end Joey Bosa and wide receiver Josh Palmer, brought back cornerback Tre’Davious White and added to their defense with their first five picks in the 2025 draft. The entire starting offensive line returns, and the front is daunting as hell with Bosa, Ed Oliver and long-limbed pass-rusher Greg Rousseau, who will be an interesting matchup for the short-limbed Will Campbell on the edge.
With running back James Cook and two solid tight ends (Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox) surrounding Allen, the Bills will be hoping that 2024 draft pick Keon Coleman finds his footing alongside Khalil Shakir, who led the Bills in catches last season with a modest 76.
The Patriots could prove to be more than a speed bump to Buffalo when the teams meet, but they aren’t likely to knock Buffalo from the AFC East perch it’s been on for five seasons.
Fun fact: Miami hasn’t won the division since 2008. The Jets haven’t since 2002!
Miami Dolphins
2024 record: 8-9
Doesn’t it seem like 15 minutes ago that the frisky and fun Dolphins were the toast of the NFL?
Their straight-shooting, snack-sized, lovable nerd head coach Mike McDaniel was going to unleash the Greatest Show on Surf down in South Florida. Buoyed by a 70-point explosion in early 2023, Miami appeared set to cash in on the promise of three straight winning seasons. But 2023 ended with a late-season blasting at Baltimore (56-19), a 21-14 home loss to the Bills and a 26-7 dismissal by the Chiefs in the playoffs.
The vibe of an 11-6 season was ruined, and when they started 2-6 in ’24, McDaniel went from ascendant to hot seat. Even though Miami fixed things enough to get to 8-9 last season (against the easiest schedule in the league by DVOA), they’re in heavy flux.
On Monday, old friend Jonnu Smith (who had 88 catches last year) was shipped to the Steelers along with three-time All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey in return for Minkah Fitzpatrick and a fifth-round pick.
That prompted mercurial receiver Tyreek Hill to tweet this.
Hill and Jaylen Waddle had huge production dips last year, traceable to poor offensive line play and the six games missed by accurate-but-oft-injured QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has cap numbers of $39 million, $56 million and $53 million over the next three seasons. He ranked last in the NFL in depth of target at just 6.1 yards per attempt.
Miami’s cap issues tied its hands in free agency, and the team did little while losing safety Jevon Holland to the Giants. The Dolphins added to their offensive and defensive lines in the first two rounds with DT Kenneth Grant (Round 1) and OL Jonah Savaiinaea (Round 2), but they didn’t pick again until the fifth round.
Miami’s not in dire straits. It still has Hill, Waddle and running back De’Von Achane. But given the dicey offensive line, the void at tight end left by Smith’s departure and Tagovailoa’s injury history, it’s hard to be bullish on their prospects.
On paper — ON PAPER — the Patriots should be better than Miami in 2025.
Still, Miami is an eye-popping 8-1 against the Patriots over the last nine matchups and Tua has never lost to New England. The Patriots get a chance to stop that discouraging trend in Week 2 at Miami.
New York Jets
2024 record: 5-12
The Aaron Rodgers thing? Didn’t work out. At all. So now New York has a new head coach in Aaron Glenn, a new stopgap quarterback in Justin Fields and that same old Jets feeling.
The offseason saw New York add a significant number of older “name” players who — in a perfect world — would have comprised a tremendous veteran core for an elite team. But out the door go Rodgers, Davante Adams, tight end Tyler Conklin and tackles Morgan Moses (to the Patriots) and Tyron Smith on offense. Out the door go C.J. Mosley, Javon Kinlaw, D.J. Reed and Haason Reddick on defense.
And they all leave with zip to show for their time in Gotham.
There’s still talent on the roster with Garrett Wilson — who played with Fields at Ohio State — Breece Hall, Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. Allen Lazard is a useful wideout. The Jets drafted LSU tight end Mason Taylor and used a first-rounder on offensive tackle Armand Membou. (It will be fun to comp his early career to Will Campbell’s.)
On paper, their offensive line is STOCKED with skilled players. It’s apparent the Jets are about to become a ground-and-pound offense, which is smart because Fields is a tad sack prone.
Bottom line, though: They are in a reboot. And — as opposed to New England, which seems to have the quarterback the Jets hoped they’d get in Zach Wilson — they’re just hoping they’re starting on the right path.
The two teams don’t meet until November 13, a Thursday night in Foxboro. They’ll meet again December 28.
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