In back-to-back years, we have called the Heisman winners — Jayden Daniels and Travis Hunter — at greater than +1000 odds.
There are certain thresholds that each player needs to hit in order to be in Heisman contention, and we use both our full-season player stats projections and team win projections to determine who has the best probability of winning. What are some of these thresholds, you might ask?
- In order to be in the running, you must hit 9+ wins. No winner in the last 20 years has won the Heisman with his team winning less than 9 games.
- QBs must have at least 40 pass+rush TDs unless they go undefeated, and there is a little leeway. Jameis Winston (38 TDs) and Troy Smith (30 TDs) are the only QBs to have fewer than 40 total TDs and win the Heisman since 2005, and they both went undefeated. QBs also need 10 or fewer interceptions.
- QBs who just meet the 9-win threshold need 45 or more pass and rush TDs and 4000+ pass and rush yards. They need their stats to outshine their record.
- Group of 5 players are going to need to break an NCAA record to win the Heisman. Ashton Jeanty’s probability of winning was directly correlated to his chances of breaking Barry Sanders’ record.
- Skill position players (WR/RB) rely on QBs not hitting any of the key marks, as well as hitting their own marks. An RB needs close to 2000 all-purpose yards and around 20 TDs. There aren’t many WRs (not counting Travis Hunter as a two-way player) that have been in Heisman contention. Amari Cooper and Devonta Smith are the only players that played strictly WR since 2005 that have been in the top 3 for Heisman voting. Smith won, and he set the benchmark of around 1650 receiving yards and close to 20 TDs.
- Players are also competing with the recent production by previous starters at their school. Carson Beck, for example, is competing against what Cam Ward did last season, while Dante Moore is competing against what Dillon Gabriel and Bo Nix did at Oregon.
Tier 1 Bets
Arch Manning (Texas) +650
Only one preseason betting favorite has won the Heisman since 2009, and that was Marcus Mariota (+600). Manning is in a similar range to Mariota. We believe Manning’s pathway to the Heisman is making the CFP and accounting for close to 40 TDs in the regular season and conference championship if they make it. We have those two thresholds being met in around 12% of simulations, making this a fair price. The last name Manning will also carry weight. You can bet on Manning to win the Heisman at +650 at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) +1100
Smith’s pathway to the Heisman is making the CFP, the group of QBs not meeting their thresholds, and Smith accounting for 1600 receiving yards and close to 20 TDs. We have Smith projected for 1350 yards and 13 TDs, but that doesn’t account for the FCS game against Grambling and a potential Big Ten title game. When you factor those in, he’s getting very close to meeting the stat thresholds. We have about a 10% chance for Ohio State to make the CFP, Smith to meet his stats requirements, and for no QBs to hit their marks.
Tier 2 Bets
John Mateer (Oklahoma) +2500
LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) +1800
Mateer and Sellers both need to hit the 9-game win line due to their relatively low preseason win totals, which are set around 6.5 games. Winning 9 games means both teams pulled off a few big upsets to get there. We give Sellers around a 6% chance of meeting his stat threshold and hitting the 9-game line. We have Oklahoma with a slightly better path to 9 wins and Mateer with slightly better stats. We give Mateer a 7% chance to do so. Both players have slight value at their longshot odds.
Tier 3 Bet
Austin Simmons (+4000)
We like Ole Miss’ chances of making the CFP compared to their odds, and we also like Lane Kiffin’s QB to put up big stats. He is competing with Jaxson Dart’s stats, but if he makes the CFP, that means he was able to do something that Dart couldn’t. You can bet on Simmons to win the Heisman at +4000 at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:
Longshots
Makhi Hughes (Oregon) +12000
We give Hughes the best chances of meeting the RB thresholds of going 11-1 or better and meeting the stat requirements. While Jeremiyah Love has the lowest odds of any RB at +4000 to win the Heisman, we think Notre Dame having three strong RBs will lead to him not meeting the stat threshold.
Demond Williams Jr. (Washington) +10000
Washington is our sleeper because we love what Williams did in limited action as a freshman last season. Williams is dynamic and had over 400 yards and 5 TDs in his bowl game start vs. Louisville. Washington only needs 9 wins for him to meet his win line given his team’s expectations.
Full Tiers List
Betting odds via DraftKings. You can bet on any player to win the Heisman at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:
Top Contenders
Arch Manning (+650)
Garrett Nussmeier (+850)
Cade Klubnik (+950)
Jeremiah Smith (+1100)
Tier 2 (Quarterbacks)
Drew Allar (+1600)
Sam Leavitt (+1800)
LaNorris Sellers (+1800)
Carson Beck (+1800)
Ty Simpson (+2000)
Julian Sayin (+2000)
DJ Lagway (+2000)
John Mateer (+2500)
Gunner Stockton (+2500)
Dante Moore (+2500)
TIER 3 (Some Skill Players and Next Group of QBs)
Jackson Arnold (+3500)
Ryan Williams (+3500)
Jeremiyah Love (+4000)
Austin Simmons (+4000)
CJ Carr/ Kenny Minchey (+5000)
Miller Moss (+5000)
Marcel Reed (+5000)
Kevin Jennings (+5000)
Fernando Mendoza (+5000)
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