So, Shane van Gisbergen got his road-course victory and is locked into the playoffs — now what?
Well, if you are a Cup Series driver still without a victory this season, the trends don’t favor you becoming the 11th postseason driver entering Sunday’s race at Pocono Raceway (2 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). The last 11 races at Pocono have been won by a driver ranked sixth or better in the playoff standings, according to Racing Insights.
How should you approach the “Tricky Triangle” if you aren’t a Larson, Hamlin or Bell? Go for stage points.
For Bubba Wallace, Chase Briscoe, Alex Bowman and Chris Buescher, they are all points racing each other to get above one another in the event another winner emerges from outside the top 16. Staying out the whole 30 laps for a possible stage win and/or points will be vital to these four wheelmen in their quest for a playoff berth.
Let’s take a closer look at the whole playoff bubble right now and who could improve or worsen their postseason hopes this weekend in the Pocono Mountains.
RELATED: Pocono schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG[Drivers in a great spot for Pocono]
I am dedicating this section to both Chase Elliott (98.96% playoff probability) and Tyler Reddick (98.63% playoff probability) for this weekend. I’m not ready just yet to slap the Charles Barkley ‘guarantee’ for either driver making the Cup playoffs, but they are 100-plus points to the good, and that should only improve Sunday as both are tops in most points scored at Pocono since 2022.
Elliott owns top 10s in the last three races at the Long Pond, Pennsylvania track, including a 2022 trophy after the disqualifications of Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch.
As for Reddick, he’s finished runner-up in two of the last three Pocono Cup races and has finished no worse than 11th at the track since 2021.
YELLOW FLAG [Drivers on the fringe for Pocono]
Fighting through back pain all last weekend in Mexico, Alex Bowman delivered one of the more clutch performances of the season with a top-five run at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. While only a slight change in his playoff probability, the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports driver did improve it to 38.97% heading to Long Pond. He took the checkered flag in the first of two Pocono races run in 2021 and finished third in the most recent edition at the track.
Chris Buescher picked up another top 10 in Mexico, but similar to last year, good runs aren’t going to cut it for the No. 17 RFK Racing team. The Prosper, Texas native had an eight-point drop in his playoff probability down to 50.98%, and he’s been unimpressive at Pocono recently with no top 10s in the Gen 7 era.
RACING INSIGHTS: Full race projections for Pocono
RED FLAG [Drivers I’m concerned about heading to Pocono]
I would’ve told you after Kansas that Chase Briscoe (67.43% playoff probability) was bound for a deep playoff run, but now I just don’t know. Yes, a seventh-place result at Mexico is great. However, sitting 14th in points is kind of no man’s land right now, sandwiched between Bubba Wallace and Bowman. The last thing Briscoe needs on Sunday is another surprise winner and he hasn’t finished better than 15th in the last three Pocono races.
He’s shown the speed this season, but Carson Hocevar is continuing to make enemies on track while being his own worst enemy. Mistake after mistake in Mexico caused one of the biggest dips in playoff probability for the Spire Motorsports driver as it fell over 10 points to just 15.18% entering Pocono. Hocevar has just one Cup start in Long Pond (17th-place finish in 2024), but he’ll log extra laps this weekend in the Truck race, which could help on Sunday.
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