Fantasy Football Target Trends from Week 8: Ja’Marr Chase is thriving again thanks to connection with Joe Flacco

Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals

When Joe Burrow got hurt, Chase’s fantasy managers were obviously frustrated. That emotion shifted to depression when Jake Browning played a few games and was over his head.

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Enter Joe Flacco to the rescue.

We’ve now seen three Flacco games with the Bengals, and they’ve been glorious for Chase. Cincinnati’s alpha receiver is back to the top of the leaderboard over that period. Check the stats in this sample: 54 targets (20 ahead of any other wideout), 38 catches (first), 346 yards (first), two touchdowns and 65.3 half-point PPR points (first). Chase has been the WR2, WR5 and WR9 in these starts. It’s been all about short and intermediate stuff, as Chase doesn’t have a 20-yard catch over this period.

This pace isn’t likely to continue, but let’s just pretend for a second that it could. If Chase produced like this over a full 17-game season, we’d be looking at 306 targets, 215 catches, 1,961 yards and 25.5 touchdowns. At least fantasy managers are finally getting what they expected when they used early draft capital on Chase.

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For the Tee Higgins crowd, it’s been a mixed bag. He’s scored a couple of times and he’s had three long catches (20-plus) while Chase has zero. But Higgins has a modest 20 targets and 12 catches in the Flacco games. It makes Higgins playable, but to this point he’s been more of a WR2/3 commodity. The Higgins log reads this way: WR31, WR12, WR26. Cincinnati’s remaining schedule is mostly favorable for WR production, so Higgins at least can maintain Circle of Trust privileges.

Flacco’s steady play has also been good for Chase Brown, as the Bengals can finally matriculate the ball down the field. Brown was the RB34 over the first five games; he’s been the RB12 since.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers

We talked about it all preseason, the Green Bay passing tree has been especially wide since Davante Adams left town. No Green Bay pass-catcher has advanced past 100 targets in the past three years (Allen Lazard, of all people, got it done). The final counts this year figure to be modest, too; Romeo Doubs is the top target so far, on pace for 102 looks. And maybe that pace could downshift with Christian Watson back on the field.

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But man, Kraft is screaming for more opportunity. He keeps getting better and better. Kraft leads all tight ends in yards per catch (15.6) and he’s second in touchdowns (six). He does the two things we’re constantly excited about at this position, he makes splash plays downfield and he carries a ton of goal-line equity.

Player development isn’t always linear, but it’s easier to tell a story when it is. Kraft’s role, standard stats and efficiency stats have gradually risen since he joined the NFL in 2023. He’s now up to 11.4 yards per target, an elite area.

Maybe the Packers are starting to lean into Kraft a little bit more, because he’s drawn 19 targets the last two weeks. Kraft isn’t in the blocking class of a George Kittle (who is, really?), but when Kraft runs a route, I see a similar, dynamic player.

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The Green Bay schedule for opposing seam coverage isn’t great — Carolina this week is the only “green” matchup (top 10) that Kraft has remaining. But I don’t think it matters much. Kraft wins on a variety of routes and he’s easily a top-5 tight end going forward, with a reasonable chance to be the No. 1 guy. He’s too fast for the linebackers and too big for the defensive backs.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers

We often talk about the Diontae Johnson Award, recognizing a receiver who has all of the targets and none of the touchdowns. Let’s keep that theme and apply it to a running game lens. Jaylen Warren is currently the back with the most carries without a score — despite 83 totes, he’s yet to rush in a touchdown. His one spike came on a passing play.

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Warren hasn’t been flooded with goal-line opportunities, but he’s received some work there. He’s at five goal-line carries (5-yard line and in), which isn’t that far away from the leaders (Jonathan Taylor has 13, Javonte Williams has 12). If you push back to the 10-yard line and in, Warren has eight rushes (Taylor and Jacobs have 23 and 19, respectively). We should mention that Pittsburgh teammate Kenneth Gainwell has scored three times from inside the 10, making the best of six opportunities.

Warren currently ranks 19th in half-point PPR scoring per game for RBs, in part because he’s a useful receiver. He’s caught 19-of-22 targets and is making 10.3 yards per catch. His weekly results have been steady: RB17, RB13, RB20, RB25, RB10, RB28. Warren’s passing chops and projectable volume give him a reliable floor, and there’s room for upside if the touchdown luck evens out even a little bit.

Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 8

Wide Receiver

Running back

Tight end