When looking for games to hammer in DFS or redraft this week, the Chiefs-Bills yearly showdown is an obvious one but low-key, the Arizona-Dallas Monday Night Football affair could make or break a lot of fantasy football matchups this week. The boys in the desert have this with a 53.5 point total, the highest of the week.
All your Cardinals are in good spots (see below) but also look for Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson to atone for his fat donut he put up last week; the Cardinals allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
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You can also ignore the fact that the Cards allow the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to QB considering they’ve been blessed by the scheduling gods. They’ve seen Cam Ward and Spencer Rattler in two of seven games played. I think Dak Prescott will be just fine.
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The Colts-Steelers game is also expecting some ping-ponging as well with a 50.5 point total. Both teams are expected to score 24 or more points, each with serious issues in the secondary. Pittsburgh is allowing the most passing yards per game (293.4) and the Colts are right there with them allowing the third most (271.6).
We obviously love our Colts this week but I think Aaron Rodgers has a chance to post another 2+ touchdown performance as well; he’s one of my favorite streamers.
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In terms of other notable Vegas breadcrumbs, the Saints on the road against the Rams have the lowest implied total this week at 14.5 while the Panthers playing in Lambeau aren’t too far behind at 15.5. Lower expectations for Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara as the elderly rookie Tyler Shough gets his first start. The same goes for Tetairoa McMillan and Rico Dowdle on Carolina. Any fringe fantasy football asset for either team carries with them catastrophically low floors.
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray vs. DAL
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The QB22 in per game scoring, Murray is coming back from injury this week taking on a Cowboys defense that could be historically bad.
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They’re not 2016 Saints bad; that team allowed 440 yards per game while the Cowboys are allowing 404 yards per contest, but hey, don’t count out the ‘Boys! As it stands, they are on pace to allow 6,878 total yards which would be the second-most total yards allowed in NFL history, outpacing last year’s horrific Panthers defense by a yard.
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Dallas has allowed quarterbacks to score 3+ touchdowns in five of eight games this year.
Mac Jones vs. NYG
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We’re not 100% sure Jones starts but while Brock Purdy (toe) is close to coming back, it sounds like he’s at least a week away. There’s online chatter that the team would be wise to try to avoid bringing back both Purdy and Ricky Pearsall on the ligament lancer known as MetLife Stadium.
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The Giants are allowing the third-most FPPG and they may be devolving, they’ve allowed back-to-back FOUR-touchdown performances to Bo Nix and a Jalen Hurts-led Eagles offense sans A.J. Brown.
Sam Darnold vs. WAS
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Darnold has been a better quarterback in real life as he’s been an up-and-down producer in our beloved fake game. Averaging 16.3 FPPG, he’s the QB21 in per game scoring.
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That being said, it’s hard not to love the matchup against the Commanders, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game. They’ve given up three-touchdown performances three times in their last five games. Sure, Patrick Mahomes and Prescott don’t surprise you but…. Geno Smith???
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt vs. BUF
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Isiah Pacheco (knee) didn’t practice Wednesday and Thursday. His availability is looking incredibly dicey.
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The Bills have been up and down stopping the run but overall they’ve allowed 5.26 YPC to opposing running backs, the second-worst mark in the NFL. Per Next Gen Stats, they’re dead last in yards after contact per carry allowed.
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The nine total touchdowns allowed to the position is tied for the sixth most, that bodes well for a certified touchdown maker in Hunt, who has five scores over his last six games despite only playing 33.3% of the offensive snaps in that span.
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This game is expected to have fireworks, the 52.5 point total is the second highest of the week.
DEEP SLEEPER: Brashard Smith vs. BUF
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If Pacheco doesn’t go, I love this as a possible breakout game for Smith. He’s got 4.39 speed and is a natural pass catcher.
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While Kareem Hunt seems fine, remember he was a bit gimpy after he got rolled up on two weeks ago. The team would be wise to limit his exposure when possible which could lead to a few more opportunities for Smith this week in what, again, should be a high-scoring game.
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Bam Knight vs. DAL
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It’s anticipated that Michael Carter will be called up from the practice squad but it appears that Knight is the lead back in Arizona.
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Knight has been picking up steam as he gets his sea legs back under him. His rush attempts, yards and yards per carry have increased in three straight games.
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The Cowboys are bottom 10 in yards before AND after contact per carry, they’re second worst in explosive run rate allowed and overall they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backs.
Kyle Monangai vs. CIN
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After seeing a season-high 45% of the offensive snaps in Week 7, that trend continued when Monangai played 46% of the snaps in Week 8. If he sees that level of participation this week, the former Rutgers product is in a great spot.
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The Bengals’ 5.26 YPC allowed to the position group ranks as third worst and they’re bottom five in yards before AND after contact allowed, explosive run rate allowed and dead last in run stuff rate. Overall, Cincinnati has allowed the most rush yards, total yards and fantasy points per game to running backs. So yeah… the unit isn’t very good.
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D’Andre Swift is in a smash spot as two of the past three backs Cincy has faced have scored 30+ PPR points but there’s plenty of meat on the bones for Monangai to feast as well. Plus, Swift has been on the injury report the past few weeks with a groin issue. Monitor his status going into the weekend.
Wide Receivers
Jauan Jennings vs. NYG
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The Giants have allowed the third-most receptions and the fourth-most yards to outside receivers this year and Jennings plays about 65% of his snaps outside.
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Jennings is heating up as well. After being in and out of the lineup with various injuries, Jennings has been north of an 85% snap share the last two weeks, where he’s garnered seven targets in back-to-back games.
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Since last year, Jennings has nine different games with 7+ targets and has scored seven touchdowns across those games. Don’t be surprised to see him score one this week.
Wan’Dale Robinson vs. SF
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The Niners have allowed the most fantasy points per game to receivers in the slot, including the second-most yards and the third-most touchdowns. The 9.62 yards/target allowed ranks as second worst and hints at big plays being given up inside.
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Last week, we saw Texans WR Jaylin Noel put together a very solid 6/5/63 slash line in a part-time role.
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Over his last four games, Robinson has been heavily leaned upon by rookie QB Jaxson Dart, averaging a very healthy 7.5 targets per game the last four games, resulting in 5.0 receptions and 64.25 yards per game.
Alec Pierce vs. PIT
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I’m going back to the well on this one. I promoted him last week and he had a solid game (two receptions, 69 yards) but it falls short of counting as a win for fantasy purposes.
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For as bad as Dallas’ defense has been, did y’all know that the Steelers are actually worse in the pass game? Pittsburgh allows the most passing yards per game and, specifically versus outside receivers, have allowed the most yards, receptions and second-most fantasy points per game to the outside.
Tre Tucker vs. JAX
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The Jags have been downright bad defending outside wide receivers. They’ve allowed the second-most touchdowns and the third-most fantasy points to the outside.
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Tucker obviously had that random 40-point explosion game in Week 3 but he’s scored 11+ PPR points in three of his last five games.
DEEP SLEEPER: Michael Wilson vs. DAL
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Don’t think this one needs much explanation; the Cowboys absolutely cannot stop the pass.
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Wilson has floated inside and outside, splitting time in the slot. As a result, he’s been on the field a ton (80+% snap share) and is second among the team’s wide receivers in routes run.
DEEP SLEEPER: Andrei Iosivas vs. CHI
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Keep an eye on the injury report, this pick relies on Joe Flacco being healthy. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury, missing practice Wednesday and being limited on Thursday.
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Versus inside receivers, the Bears have allowed the most touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points.
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Iosivas has obviously been very up-and-down but he’s been playing a ton, sporting an 80.7% snap share since Week 2. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of a good matchup.
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