I get done with “Fantasy Football Live” on Sunday mornings right at kickoff. The quick transition from giving out analysis and taking in information is like the “The Darkest Timeline” sequence from “Community.” There’s so much happening at once.
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Having to catch up on multiple games at once is like Donald Glover walking into a room of chaos. You can’t focus on one thing. I’ve replayed that scene numerous times and picked up something new each time. However, since we can’t replay live-action football, I’ll give you a player from each side to monitor throughout each Week 4 contest.
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Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m not starting Jordan Addison, but I do want to see how involved he is in his first week. Jalen Nailor has operated as the Vikings’ WR2 with 20.0% of the targets. But he’s been inefficient with his opportunity (1.20 YPRR, five first downs). Another explosive threat, while meaning less volume for Justin Jefferson, should keep the pressure off Carson Wentz.
The good news is, even after switching teams, DK Metcalf leads his pass-catching crew in targets. However, the gap is just two attempts. Even worse, Calvin Austin III has more air yards. Pittsburgh’s spread offense is making it tough to trust the former Seahawk. And a tough matchup against the Vikings’ secondary shouldn’t give us any confidence.
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Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Chuba Hubbard’s share of the backfield went from 80.0% in Week 1 to 59.0% and 63.0% over the last two games. At the same time, Rico Dowdle’s carries hit a season-high against the Falcons (10), and the former Cowboy got the carries from inside the five-yard line. Hubbard’s control of the backfield was what buoyed his ADP. If Dowdle continues to be a threat, Hubbard will fall even farther into the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 conversation moving forward.
The scenario that everyone with TreVeyon Henderson assumed would happen unfolded in Week 3. Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled not once, but twice against the Steelers. After causing his second turnover, Henderson played 75.0% of the snaps and led the backfield with nine carries and two targets. If the takeover happens in Week 4 against one of the worst run defenses in the league, expect fireworks out of Foxborough.
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Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Let me get this straight: Quinshon Judkins was away from the team during training camp, signed the day before Cleveland’s season opener, has only 10 practices under his belt and has displaced the two viable RBs that covered for him to start the season. That’s fair. Jerome Ford didn’t register a carry against the Packers. Dylan Sampson couldn’t buy a target. Judkins absorbing all of the touches after so little acclimation is going to be the story to watch for Cleveland.
Another week with Jameson Williams playing third or fourth fiddle in the Lions’ passing game. Detroit’s supposed WR2 is yet to earn more than five targets in a game, and his primary means of production is shots downfield. Meanwhile, Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be the apple of Jared Goff’s eye, along with Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta. Plus, rookie Isaac TeSlaa operates in the same area as Williams. Without a unique role, Williams appears to be the odd man out in one of the league’s higher-scoring offenses.
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
So, Chris Olave and Wan’Dale Robinson switched teams and jerseys, right? In past seasons, Olave was the downfield option for the Saints’ passing game, requiring contested catches to generate yards. This year’s different, though. The former Buckeye has hit a career-high snap rate of 39.7% from the slot. Sunday was his first 10-catch game. Sure, we’d like to see him find the end zone, but in PPR leagues, the layup looks are a nice reprieve from previous seasons.
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Keon Coleman kicked off 2025 with a 29.2-point outburst that helped Buffalo seal its win over Baltimore. But, more importantly, the sophomore receiver secured a 26.0% target share from Josh Allen. Since then, he’s had back-to-back outings with just four looks as the offense has returned to its “spread and shred” ways of distributing the ball to multiple pass-catchers. Regardless of the outcome, Sunday should help us determine if Coleman is worth rostering or if Week 1 was an outlier.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Things have gone from bad to worse for Calvin Ridley. After a 32.0% target rate to start the season, he ended Week 3 with just 19.0% of the attempts from Cam Ward. Even worse, his on-field deployment has reverted to his ’24 pre-snap alignment. On Sunday, Ridley’s aDOT jumped to 15.7 air yards (was 8.9 and 12.5 the previous two games) and, consequently, his catchable target rate tumbled to just 33.0%. Dropping the ball certainly doesn’t help, and facing the Texans will only continue to strain his connection with his rookie QB.
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I want to see one game where CJ Stroud doesn’t have to fight for his life after every snap. The pressure, and I mean it literally, not figuratively, may be causing bad habits. In 2024, Stroud ranked 13th in EPA per dropback in obvious passing situations with a clean pocket. After three games, in the same scenario, he’s only been better than Cam Ward, Tyrod Taylor and J.J. McCarthy. Taking 5.7 hits per game would do that to anyone. But against Tennessee’s lackluster defense (eighth-lowest pressure rate), let’s hope we see flashes of the earlier versions of Stroud.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let’s go back to A.J. Brown’s involvement in Week 2. Jalen Hurts targeted Brown on 38.1% of his throws. Brown had a 37.6% share of the air yards. But he only scored 7.7 PPR points. His 22.9-point explosion is why we follow opportunity metrics. And now, against a defense that’s faced Michael Penix Jr., C.J. Stroud and Tyrod Taylor and given up multiple touchdowns in each contest, Brown should be in store for another top-12 performance.
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While Sterling Shepard doesn’t have the same physique or playstyle as Mike Evans, the former Giant made enough plays in Week 3 to bring similar value to the offense. The veteran WR led the team in first downs on a meager 17.2% target share, which should expand with Evans set to miss time. And I’m not basing this on a “next man up” narrative. With Tampa working through multiple offensive line injuries, Baker Mayfield’s average time to throw dropped to 2.31 seconds, reducing his air yards per attempt. A shift like this would benefit a short-area receiver capable of getting open at the line of scrimmage. Let’s see if Shepard is still that guy.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
Every fantasy manager will be watching to see how much of a backfield split, if any, HC Jim Harbaugh will implement. Omarion Hampton handled 100.0% of the RB carries with a 23.1% target share after Najee Harris went down. While he capitalized on the touches (19-70-1 as a runner, 6-59-0 as a receiver), Harbaugh indicated Kimani Vidal will come up from the practice squad to fill the void. And depending on the Chargers’ plans for a playoff run, an in-season trade to bolster the position wouldn’t be surprising. However, for Week 4, all eyes will be on Hampton’s workload.
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Dropping Jaxson Dart into the season against the Chargers (allowing the 11th fewest points to opposing QBs) is a choice. But the rookie can bring a spark to the offense. Dart scrambled on 7.5% of his dropbacks in the preseason for 47 yards and a touchdown. He also got the ball out on time with a higher adjusted completion percentage than Russell Wilson. Of course, this is the real deal, but Dart’s ability to create out of structure could be what the Giants need to bring some energy back to the team.
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy managers are feeling bamboozled by Washington’s backfield rotation in Week 3. Maybe “Bill-boozled” would be the better description, actually (I am so sorry for the bad joke). Chris Rodriguez led the team with 11 rushing attempts. Jeremy McNichols took the two-minute work. Luckily, “Bill” Croskey-Merritt took the short-yardage totes and earned a couple of targets. But with Jayden Daniels likely back, an extra rusher will only drop the seventh-round RB’s value even more.
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I’m confused by Michael Penix Jr.’s Week 3 performance. It’s not to say Penix has been a pinpoint accurate QB (24th in adjusted completion percentage entering Sunday’s game). But falling to a 50.0% completion rate against the Panthers wasn’t something I expected. And it’s not like he saw more pressure. In fact, the Panthers gave Penix his highest clean-pocket rate of the season (76.3%), and he was still inefficient. Maybe facing a division rival got the best of him, but taking on Washington’s defensive front will give Penix a new set of issues on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams
If it weren’t for Daniel Jones resurrecting his career, Jonathan Taylor would be the headliner for the Colts. After a down year in ’24, Taylor has posted top-10 rushing metrics across the board. However, it’s easy to ignore the stats when the production has been so captivating. He has one game without either 100 yards or a TD. And the Rams are yet to allow either in a single game. Sunday will be a true test for the Colts, and the outcome may shift how we feel about Taylor and the rest of Indianapolis’ starters.
I could list off a few stats about Puka Nacua that still blow my mind. Nacua is averaging 9.7 receptions per game. Only four other receivers have more targets per game. No, that’s not a typo. Anyway, the one that gets me is that he’s yet to record a receiving TD. With Davante Adams working through an injury, the chance for more work (hopefully) leading to a score should make Nacua a fun watch in Week 4.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
The worry for Travis Hunter in both real and fantasy football continues to grow each week. His route rate has fallen from 82.0% in Week 1 to hovering around 60.0% the last two weeks. His targets have been on a decline since the season opener. With ancillary players like Parker Washington and Brenton Strange keeping the offense moving, and Brian Thomas Jr. still to get on track, Hunter’s utility within the offense is hard to measure.
Last year, when the 49ers were waiting for Brandon Aiyuk to get on track, Jauan Jennings came out of nowhere to be the WR1. Now, Aiyuk has no timeline to return, Jennings is hurt and George Kittle is on IR. And yet again, the 49ers have someone on the roster who can step up. Ricky Pearsall turned 31.0% of Mac Jones’ targets and turned them into 23.7 PPR points. And with Jennings likely sidelined again, Pearsall should get a chance to work with Brock Purdy to take on the Jaguars.
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Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders
When you put the ball into Luther Burden III’s hands, good things happen. His first and second catches against Dallas totaled 94 yards. Sure, a large portion of them (65) came on a trick play. But I’d counter with the idea that weaving a rookie into a concept involving misdirection is good. However, Burden only ran a route on 31.0% of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks, and everyone has looked good against the Cowboys. A continued improvement in Burden’s routes and targets would be a positive sign for the coming weeks.
Yes, Raiders’ fans will be watching to see how Geno Smith performs. Fantasy managers will have their eyes on Ashton Jeanty. I’ll be monitoring the offensive line. This is the same unit with the fewest adjusted yards before contact (limiting Jeanty) while giving up the fifth-highest pressure rate (forcing Smith into hero mode). Any improvement in their ability to open rushing lanes or give Smith time to find his receivers would be a welcome sight.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
If you’re into horror movies, there’s always a sequence where the protagonist has to perform some action to best a demon. Mark Andrews might’ve done that on Monday night. His first touchdown was on a similar route and caught in a similar location as his dropped two-point conversion in last year’s playoffs. Even more compelling, Andrews’ 21.4% target rate resembles what we have seen from the high-end TE in years past. Now, let’s find out if Week 3 was real or not.
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Tyquan Thornton has become the guy to watch in Kansas City (outside of the guy throwing him passes). He’s been the Kansas City Chiefs’ deep threat since Week 1. Now, he has the opportunity to go with the volatility. Thornton led the receivers with nine targets in Week 3. And even with Xavier Worthy likely returning to the field, Thornton should be on our WR3 radar.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
You’d think you’d want to start a first-round WR against the Cowboys’ defense. But Matthew Golden is a different story. The Packers’ supposed WR1 is still working his way into the offense. He’s earned no more than four targets in a game. We’ll set aside his yardage totals and check if his catches have made an impact — they’ve only generated two first downs. He has one explosive play. Dallas’ secondary is typically one to target, but Golden may need more time to take advantage of the situation.
After CeeDee Lamb went down, we saw more receivers get involved. Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin and Ryan Flournoy all saw evolved roles without their WR1. But George Pickens’ job remained the same. He didn’t work more from the inside. His route tree consisted of out-breaking routes. Other than a bump in targets, Pickens was the same guy. But for a guy Dallas used multiple picks to acquire, you’d think they’d put more on his plate.
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New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Even as the Jets’ offense has struggled, Breece Hall has maintained a grip on the backfield. He’s handled more than 50.0% of the totes in every game. More importantly, Hall’s earned target shares of 11.0%, 11.0% and 18.0%. The Dolphins have surrendered the ninth-most PPR PPG to opposing RBs. Even if Justin Fields returns to the lineup, Hall should be in the top-10 discussion for Week 4.
If I told you there was a receiver coming out of Week 3 with a 30.0% target rate and 78.0% of his team’s air yards, you’d be interested. There’d be buy-low articles mentioning him, or the cover of a “Players to Watch” column would have his face on it. But I bet you’d pause when I said it’s Tyreek Hill. Tua Tagovailoa sits below the league average in every passing efficiency metric, and the Dolphins are 0-3. So even if Hill is hoarding all of the attempts, how much of his opportunity will turn into points is a fair question.
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
The Bengals have the same problem as the Raiders: They can’t block. The play concept doesn’t matter. Jake Browning faced pressure on 58.1% of his dropbacks. Chase Browning averaged -0.36 adjusted yards before contact on first down. Both are untenable for a functioning offense. As a Bengals fan, I don’t need to see Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins with the ball. I know they’re good. Until Cincinnati can consistently block for anybody, they’ll continue to struggle in what’s already looking like a lost season.
I’m willing to give Courtland Sutton the benefit of the doubt after a topsy-turvy start to the season. The recently-extended WR opened the season with a nine-target, 21.1-point outing against the Titans. However, he followed up the performance with just four looks and a single catch. But last week, he was back in the end zone. HC Sean Payton’s penchant for rotating receivers has been the bane of fantasy managers since his time in New Orleans. However, against the Bengals’ defense (giving up the second-most PPR PPG to WRs), Sutton should be the first option to keep the Broncos’ passing game ahead of the sticks.
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