Fantasy Football: J.J. McCarthy's impact on Justin Jefferson and 9 other storylines that will define Week 9

Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through 10 storylines that will define the week. After eight weeks of excitement, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 9?

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Caleb Williams “Get right” Spot

Since the Week 5 bye, Caleb Williams’ fantasy PPG has dropped from 20.5 to 12.1, as he’s gone back-to-back games without a touchdown. Thankfully for him, giving up touchdowns is what the Bengals do best. Only the 2020 Lions defense has allowed more points per game than the Bengals this decade, as Cincinnati is allowing 31.6 points to opposing teams. Naturally, the Bengals are also one of the worst teams in the red zone, a place of struggle for the Bears lately.

Williams’ yards per attempt have actually increased; the touchdowns have just dropped off dramatically. Ben Johnson’s offense is built around YAC and getting the ball to playmakers’ hands in advantageous spots. As Williams continues to adjust to the offense, the Bengals defense is the perfect team to capitalize against. Cincinnati has allowed 1,232 yards after the catch this season, 167 more than the next-closest team. If Williams is able to balance working in the system while still utilizing his natural talents, the young quarterback will be able to carve up a struggling defense in order to get back on track.

J.J. with JJ

Justin Jefferson has averaged 121 receiving yards and 18 fantasy PPG versus the Lions in his career. Given that Detroit is 28th versus fantasy wideouts on the year, we would expect more of the same if J.J. McCarthy can deliver. Over the first two weeks of the season, McCarthy wasn’t trusted with volume close to the average Minnesota quarterback. The sample is small, but we need to see a change in Week 9.

McCarthy had one dominant quarter in Game 1 versus Chicago’s secondary, then was shut down in his second career start against a tough Falcons pass defense. Over the last four games, Wentz has dropped back nearly 40 times a game, resulting in plenty of passing volume for both Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Minnesota has the friendliest fantasy schedule for QBs and WRs the rest of the season, and McCarthy’s passing volume on Sunday will be a massive indicator of Jefferson’s potential going forward.

Travis Hunter post-bye

The rumors of Travis Hunter becoming the Jacksonville WR1 have some evidence looking at the last few weeks. Over the last two games, Hunter has run nearly 50 routes per game, the most in the NFL, as his defensive snaps have dropped off. Brian Thomas Jr. did leave early in Week 7 prior to their bye, but still had 21 routes in the second half prior to leaving. In the second half, Hunter had eight receptions to Thomas’s zero.

Although Hunter is almost strictly out of the slot, his route tree has expanded as of late, peaking in Week 7 with more downfield targets. After the bye week, if Hunter’s usage begins to become consistent, his fantasy potential is limitless. If Hunter continues to be the volume WR post bye week, I’d be even more concerned for Thomas and confident in Jacksonville’s No. 2 overall pick.

We take a look at how the Jaguars rookie WRs route chart looked in Week 7’s loss to the Rams.

Kyler’s back… but is that good?

Trey McBride has scored three touchdowns in his last two games. The same number of touchdowns he’s scored in his other 21 games since 2024. Is touchdown luck finally hitting, or is it the absence of Kyler Murray? The red zone usage isn’t the issue when it comes to McBride’s touchdown success. Since 2024, with Murray at the helm, the Cardinals TE has a 31% target share and 12 end zone targets. Many point out the lack of efficiency when it comes to Marvin Harrison Jr. in this offense, but he has brought in seven of his 14 end zone targets since the start of last season. McBride has brought in two of 12. Overall, Murray’s numbers in the red zone, outside of throwing to McBride, are better than average.

Going back and watching the red zone film makes me lean more toward bad TD luck this season, as the playcalling in the red zone has led to more easy targets for McBride. We saw both backup QB Jacoby Brissett and Murray throw one-yard scores to the TE on old-fashioned goal-line play action, as well as red zone screens and crossers to utilize his after the catch ability even in the shortened area of the field. Dallas is a great spot for Murray to prove he can pay off McBride’s touchdown potential, as they’re the only team to allow 20 passing scores on the year.

Brock Bowers’ return

Geno Smith on the season is bottom-five in most important quarterback metrics. However, the bar was set low. Brock Bowers excelled last year in his rookie season with worse quarterback play than the Raiders have now. So yes, the offense and QB aren’t ideal, but Bowers can still produce at a top-three level.

In his three games post-PCL injury, Bowers averaged under seven points per game while not looking like his full self. He wasn’t incredible last season because of touchdown production (11% of his points), but rather a combo of his yards after the catch and downfield playmaking. Tight ends don’t need perfection at the quarterback position to be top five, and if Bowers is fully healthy, he can more than outweigh the passing game struggles. As a rookie, he was fourth in yards per route with the worst quarterback room in the league. Now that the young TE is back to full speed, I fully expect his fantasy production to return.

Tyler Shough ROS Starter

With Spencer Rattler leading the way, Chris Olave was second in total WR volume and 16th in fantasy PPG in PPR leagues. With Tyler Shough starting the rest of the way, now what? Shough is a 26-year-old rookie quarterback from Louisville who was actually in the same high school recruiting class as Olave. Rattler wasn’t perfect, but he did enough to help Olave be a weekly starter in fantasy. We’ve only seen one half of Shough so far, where he posted 4.3 yards per attempt on 30 passes. Six targets to Olave and eight to Shaheed.

It’s a small sample size with Shough, but a 31% target share from Rattler is hard to beat. Kellen Moore is where my hope resides, as the head coach has made the best of what he’s got in the passing game. The Saints have the fastest-paced offense in the league and are also one of the pass-heaviest. Moore’s offensive build provides a little confidence, but I’m not confident in Shough being an upgrade, especially in Week 9 versus a tough Rams defense.

Deebo Samuel

No Terry McLaurin, add back in Jayden Daniels, and Deebo Samuel is back? That’s the hope. Samuel has scored nearly 2x fewer fantasy points without Jayden Daniels starting and four fantasy PPG more without McLaurin. Volume is what matters at the end of the day, and it’s just not been there with backup Marcus Mariota. Washington quickly turns from a run-heavy offense into making Samuel a priority with nine opportunities per game with Daniels under center.

Seattle is an interesting matchup for the Commanders, especially without safety Julian Love. The Seahawks’ stout run defense has forced offenses to have the second-highest pass rate in the league to date. Samuel should be relied on heavily in primetime and is set up to have a bounce-back week.

Brashard Smith

To start the season, rookie Brashard Smith has been used sparingly, but intentionally. The perfect stat to show this is his ridiculous 42% target share per route run. As a receiver, which was his initial position in college, Smith’s been dominant, averaging over 11 yards after the catch per reception. The question becomes, with Pacheco sidelined, whose role expands: Brashard Smith or Kareem Hunt?

Pacheco had 45% of the Kansas City RB touches on the season through eight weeks. Hunt has a clear role as the goal-line and short-area back. Although I don’t think he becomes a workhorse, his success rate, a big indicator of future playing time, is sixth best among RBs. He has a job, and he does it extremely well. Smith, however, doesn’t need extreme volume to be usable in fantasy. The combo of great receiving, an elite offense and the rookie learning curve is in his favor. The Chiefs don’t often use rookies until late into the season, but a potential shootout with the Bills can give us a look at Smith’s rest-of-season potential.

Bam Knight vs. Dallas

The Dallas defense has been on a generational run (derogatory). Over the last five games, fantasy RBs are averaging over 30 half-PPR PPG. Yes, 30. They aren’t just bad, they’re horrible. So yes, Bam Knight is playable by default. With Michael Carter being moved to the practice squad, Knight is the clear RB1 in Arizona. The Cardinals are projected to score over 25 points, making the potential of a spot start for Knight very obvious.

Since becoming the guy two weeks ago, Knight has 57% of the RB touches in Arizona, with Carter receiving 39%. On average, the Cardinals have given 26 targets and carries to RBs to start the year. The path to nearly 20 touches is clear. If you need a prayer, I approve.

Tee Higgins

After a two-target game and Joe Flacco’s injury concerns, the matchup versus the Bears doesn’t make it any better. In most apps, you’ll see the Bears are a good matchup for Tee Higgins… this is what I’d call a matchup lie. The passing defense as a whole has struggled, but as of late, Chicago has improved. The main point is where this defense has been vulnerable. In terms of fantasy PPG allowed versus the average, the Bears rank 32nd against slot receivers and 28th against TEs. Yet they are first against outside WRs, where Higgins will line up nearly every play.

With his target share below 17% no matter which QB is in the game, Higgins is in a trap spot for Week 9.

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