Fantasy Football: 'He's got the arm, the legs and history on his side' — Tale of the Take, Week 8

Last week, we were this close to perfection, nearly going 5-for-5 on the Tale of the Take. We called Rashee Rice’s breakout — saying he was in line for a heavy workload — and he delivered with a top-10 finish tied with Xavier Legette at WR9. Quinshon Judkins smashed Miami for three touchdowns as the RB4 on the week, Travis Hunter had his best fantasy outing of the season, and “Room for two in Dallas” hit with George Pickens and Jake Ferguson producing alongside CeeDee Lamb. The only miss was Saquon Barkley, who saw the volume but not the touchdowns. Still, we were a breath away from perfect. Now we’re back at it with five new tales and five new takes ready to deliver another big Week 8.

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Caleb Williams, Bears passing attack bounce back vs. Ravens

The Tale: The Chicago Bears’ passing offense has been ice cold since the bye. Over the past two weeks, Caleb Williams ranks eighth-worst in the NFL in EPA plus completion percentage over expected, a metric that blends efficiency with accuracy. The only quarterbacks who’ve been worse by completion rate? Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Jaxson Dart and C.J. Stroud. That’s the kind of company you don’t want to keep if you’re Chicago’s franchise quarterback.

Williams has to play better — period. Over Weeks 6 and 7 his success rate sits at 42%, a bottom-10 mark in the league. The Bears’ air attack has gone stale. Rome Odunze hasn’t caught more than two passes in back-to-back games, posting lines of two for 32 yards and two for 31 yards with a called-back touchdown sprinkled in. D.J. Moore hasn’t been much better with three receptions in each of the last two games. The only pass catcher to top four receptions in that stretch was Luther Burden III, who caught four for 51 yards in Week 6 against Washington. It’s been tough sledding all around.

But Week 8 offers a get-right opportunity. The last time we saw Baltimore’s pass defense it was anything but intimidating. The Ravens were giving up 246.5 passing yards per game — fifth-most in the league — and rank seventh-worst in generating pressure with just 68 total on the season. They’re also tied for the eighth-fewest sacks (eight). Simply put, this isn’t a defense that consistently makes quarterbacks uncomfortable.

Even with a week of rest the Ravens are still banged up. Kyle Hamilton and Lamar Jackson practiced in limited fashion on Wednesday while Marlon Humphrey didn’t practice at all. Baltimore will have some starters back but this group hasn’t been cohesive or consistent. And, when you factor in that the Ravens are second worst in rushing EPA allowed and fifth-worst in rushing success rate against (46%), this defense can be attacked from all angles.

Chicago can run it. We’ve seen that all year. The key now is pairing that efficiency on the ground with a functional passing game. If that balance hits it’ll open up play-action and rhythm throws for Williams to get Odunze, Moore and Burden going again.

Take: The Bears offense finds its groove in Week 8. Williams rebounds with his best game since the bye and the Bears’ passing attack finally gets back on track against a shaky Ravens defense.

Bo Nix goes back-to-back as QB1

The Tale: It’s been nearly 30 years since the Dallas Cowboys last beat the Denver Broncos. You read that right — 1995 was the last time Dallas came out on top in this matchup. Since then, Denver has owned the series and on Sunday history might just repeat itself behind the play of second-year quarterback Bo Nix.

Last week, Nix went nuclear. He finished as the QB1 in Week 7 with 39.96 fantasy points, posting 279 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air while adding 48 yards and two scores on the ground. The setup for a repeat is sitting right in front of him.

Dallas’ defense is bad. Statistically this is one of the worst units in football right now. The Cowboys are allowing the third-most points per game (29.8) behind only Cincinnati and Baltimore. Through the air they’ve been shredded — 260 passing yards per game, most in the NFL, and a brutal 7.2 yards per pass attempt, second-worst behind the Bengals. They’ve given up 16 passing touchdowns (second-most in the league) and are letting opposing quarterbacks sit back and dice them up with 2.95 seconds to throw, also second-worst.

It doesn’t stop there. On the ground, this Dallas defense ranks bottom three, giving up 141 rushing yards per game. Injuries aren’t helping either — Trevon Diggs missed practice with a concussion, Donovan Wilson sat with an arm injury and Kenny Clark was limited. This isn’t a unit that looks ready to stop anyone right now.

The Cowboys offense is elite — Dak Prescott is playing like an MVP and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are unstoppable. But Denver’s defense has quietly been strong, ranking ninth in rushing yards allowed and sixth in passing yards allowed per game.

The Take: This one’s going to turn into a track meet. Nix is at home, brimming with confidence and facing a defense that’s been torched every week. He’s got the arm, the legs and history on his side. The Broncos keep their streak alive and Nix finishes Week 8 as QB1 once again.

A pair of rookies lead Tampa Bay past the Saints

The Tale: I wouldn’t have guessed this in August but here we are in Week 8 and Baker Mayfield’s top-two weapons are rookies — first-round pick Emeka Egbuka and seventh-round surprise Tez Johnson. When Mike Evans went down on Monday Night Football with a broken collarbone, it left a massive hole in the Buccaneers’ passing game. Johnson filled that void, and this week on the road against New Orleans, I think the rookie connection comes through again.

Tampa Bay is favored against the Saints and it’s no fluke. Mayfield is quietly playing some of the best football of his career. He’s sixth in the NFL in passing yards, tied for sixth in passing touchdowns and has just two interceptions on the season. His completion rate sits at 64% and his EPA per dropback ranks 13th-best in the league. Baker has been efficient, poised and deadly in rhythm.

Now, he gets a Saints defense that looks better on paper than it actually is. New Orleans is giving up 335 yards per game, 13th-most in the NFL and has already allowed 20 total touchdowns on the year. They allow nearly seven yards per attempt, tied for seventh-most in the league and opposing quarterbacks have all day to throw — the Saints allow the third-most time to throw (2.9 seconds) and rank bottom 12 in total pressures with 74. This is not a defense that generates chaos.

On the other side, the Saints offense is just hanging on. Spencer Rattler is trying to keep things competitive but the run game is nonexistent with Kendre Miller hurt while New Orleans ranks 24th in passing yards per game. Tampa Bay meanwhile ranks ninth in the league in passing offense and sits at 5-2 atop the NFC South.

The Take: Egbuka is a locked-in starter and Johnson is a sneaky Week 8 flex play against a Saints defense that won’t be able to keep up.

Bijan Robinson goes off for 200 yards vs. Miami

The Tale: The Miami Dolphins have the worst rushing defense in the NFL. They’re giving up close to 160 rushing yards per game and allowing over 5.0 yards per carry. That’s a recipe for disaster when you’re facing one of the most dynamic running backs in football. Miami has allowed 34 runs of 10-plus yards this season, the most in the league. It’s not just one level of the defense either. The Dolphins are the only team in the NFL allowing more than 2.0 yards per attempt before contact and over 3.0 yards after contact. That means backs are finding space early and breaking tackles late — a nightmare combination against someone like Bijan.

What makes it even worse is how Miami is trying to stop the run. The Dolphins have stacked the box on 33.2% of opponent rushing attempts, fourth-highest in the NFL. When you sell out that hard to stop the run and still get gashed, it leads to explosive plays. That’s exactly what Atlanta is going to create on Sunday.

Robinson is already sixth in the NFL with 524 rushing yards. The touchdowns haven’t piled up yet — just two on the ground — but the efficiency, vision and balance have been elite. Last week against San Francisco, he was bottled up for 40 rushing yards on 2.9 yards per attempt. That’s not happening again. This is the bounce-back spot.

The Take: Robinson finishes Week 8 as the RB1 with over 200 scrimmage yards and a statement performance that reminds everyone why he’s the most talented back in football.

Joe Flacco sneaks into QB1 territory vs. the Jets

The Tale: It doesn’t need to be complicated. If Sauce Gardner doesn’t play, Joe Flacco finishes Week 8 as a top-12 quarterback. That’s the call. The Jets defense loves to play man coverage — seventh-highest rate in the NFL — and they’re allowing 6.9 yards per play when in man, also seventh-most. That aggressive approach can work when your top corner is locking down half the field but if Gardner misses this game, it’s a whole different story.

Ja’Marr Chase has seen heavy volume against man coverage all season. Entering Week 7, he was targeted on 21.8% of his routes versus man, but that number jumped to 50% last week with 12 targets on 24 routes. He turned those into eight catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. If Gardner sits, Chase and Flacco can torch this secondary.

The Jets are still a tough defense overall, allowing just 197 passing yards per game — ninth-fewest in the league — but that’s with Sauce anchoring the back end. Without him, they’re vulnerable. New York has given up 13 passing touchdowns, tied for eighth-most in the NFL, and its 6.5 yards allowed per pass play ranks 10th-worst.

Offensively the Jets won’t force Cincinnati into a shootout but that’s fine. The Bengals don’t need one. Flacco’s efficiency combined with Chase’s matchup advantage gives him a strong floor and real top-12 upside.

The Take: If Gardner is out, start Flacco with confidence. He’s got the matchup, the weapons and the volume to sneak into QB1 range in Week 8.

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