Fantasy Football: 'Henderson’s burst is the difference maker that changes how drives can finish' — Tale of the Take, Week 9

Here we go again. Last week, I called Joe Flacco rising and he delivered a QB5 finish. Bo Nix wasn’t QB1 but QB7 is still a win. Tampa Bay’s rookies did push the Bucs past the Saints but the fantasy juice wasn’t there. Rome Odunze bounced back against Baltimore but not so much for Caleb Williams. The big miss was Bijan Robinson, who was a complete bust in a smash spot vs. the Dolphins.

We take the lessons, we keep swinging. I’ve got tales and takes for Week 9. Let’s dive in.

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Travis Hunter becomes WR1 vs. Las Vegas

The Tale: The bye gave Jacksonville a reset while rumors swirled around Brian Thomas Jr. Head coach Liam Coen said there’s no chance they move BTJ. Maybe. Either way, this is about the No. 2 pick. In Week 7, Hunter arrived: 86.5% snaps, 49 routes, 14 targets, 8 for 101 and a score. He led the room in quick-game looks 8-3 over BTJ, had two play-action targets, five targets of 10+ air yards, plus two red-zone looks and one in the end zone. He added 42 yards after the catch with a missed tackle forced and a solid 0.4 fantasy points per route. That’s not a cameo. That’s a plan.

The matchup tilts green. The Raiders allow 225.1 passing yards per game with only 12 defenses surrendering more. They’re tied for the seventh-fewest sacks in the league with 15 and their total quarterback pressures sit at just 71, tied for second worst. They blitz on 25% of dropbacks overall, then crank it on third down to 40.7% — fifth highest. The heat doesn’t get home often enough: only 45% of those third-down blitzes become pressure. When it doesn’t, opponents are 12 of 18 for 151 yards and three TDs with a 132.2 rating. That’s the type of defense you pick on with quick, glance routes, and play-action crossers. It’s also the menu Coen just put on tape for Hunter. Even Jaguars legend Jimmy Smith called for Hunter to be the focal point. The signal is clear.

Off the bye, Coen doubles down. Expect motion to free releases, early RPOs and scripted touches to punish the blitz and force lighter boxes. Hunter clears eight targets again, leads the team in third-down first reads, and owns the layups that keep drives alive while still getting one or two schemed shots. Start him with confidence as a high-end WR2 who can post WR1 numbers this week. If your league still treats Week 7 as a blip, buy before kickoff.

The take: Travis Hunter becomes Jacksonville’s WR1 in Week 9 and holds it the rest of the way.

Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift smash Cincinnati

The Tale: Vegas is calling for points with Cincinnati favored by 2.5 and a 50.5 total, so the matchup tilts hard toward the Bears’ skill guys. Since Week 5, the Bengals have been one of the worst defenses in football by the numbers. They’re allowing 168 rushing yards per game, second worst over that span and only a yard behind Dallas. The Bengals have been tagged for 5.5 yards per carry, tied for second worst. It isn’t just the ground game. Cincinnati has allowed 418 total yards per game since Week 5, the most in the NFL by almost 30, and is dead last in yards per play at 6.8. Through the air, the Bengals have surrendered 250 passing yards per game, seventh worst, and are 29th on third down with opponents converting 47.7% of the time. This unit just gave up 39 points to the Jets.

Chicago brings a balanced team built to punish that. Since Week 5, the Bears rank fourth in total offense at 379 yards per game. They’re third in rushing at 154 per game and sit top 10 in yards per rush at more than five. The pass has been middling at 20th, but the balance is the point — it keeps the script neutral and stacks plays against a defense that cannot get off the field. That sets Swift up for volume and chunk gains after a quieter outing last week when he still found the end zone. He’d popped for back-to-back 100-yard games before that and this is the get-right spot against a front that bleeds explosives.

It also sets Odunze up for another alpha day. After two down weeks with only two catches in each, he bounced back in a major way versus Baltimore with 10 targets, seven receptions and 114 yards. Cincinnati’s leaky coverage and third-down issues fuel target volume. Sustained drives mean more plays, more red-zone chances and another double-digit opportunity count for Chicago’s WR1. Even with Caleb Williams struggling since Week 5 — QB28 at 12.12 points per game — the opponent and environment elevate both stars.

The Take: Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift both finish as top-10 positional scorers in Week 9 vs. Cincinnati.

C.J. Stroud vs. Denver

The Tale: C.J. Stroud has only logged one top-10 week this year, the Week 5 heater against Baltimore when he finished as the QB1 with 244 yards and four touchdowns, plus 30 on the ground. Last week looked like the next best version of that player. Against San Francisco, he threw for 318 yards and two scores with 30 rushing yards, and did it without Nico Collins. The ball placement was on time, the pocket movement was calm and the offense answered a heavyweight defense snap for snap.

Now, the setting flips back to Houston where the Texans are slight 1.5-point favorites and they’re expected to get Collins back. Denver arrives 6-2 after beating down Dallas, but this has been an up-and-down unit on offense and they’re walking in without the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II. With Surtain on the field, Denver’s pass defense has been one of the best in football. They’re tied for the third-fewest touchdown passes allowed with eight and they lead the league in sacks, a scary situation for any quarterback behind a line that has shown vulnerability. But this is also where the matchup evens out. Houston’s defense has been elite at disrupting timing, ranking No. 1 in average time to pressure at 2.48 seconds and No. 1 in limiting opponent time to throw at 2.64. Denver sits middle of the pack at 18th in time to throw allowed. That matters because field position and tempo tilt toward the Texans when their defense shortens plays and forces quick punts.

Houston does not need to win this as a dropback war. They can control early downs with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb, then layer in play-action shots to Collins as motion and formations stress a secondary missing its eraser. Stroud just showed he can dice a top defense without his WR1. Add Collins back, remove Surtain and the path is clear for efficient volume and red-zone conversion in front of the home crowd. Stroud delivers his second top-10 fantasy performance of the season and Houston beats Denver. That’s the call and it comes straight off what we just watched.

The Take: C.J. Stroud is a QB1 this week vs. Denver and Houston gets the win

TreVeyon Henderson turns flashes into fire vs. Atlanta

The Tale: Atlanta comes to Foxborough after another rough loss, and the matchup puts New England’s rookie squarely in the frame. It has been a bumpy year for TreVeyon Henderson. Top-of-the-second round pick, Ohio State pedigree, yet, before Week 8, he hadn’t cleared 35 rushing yards in any game, had one rushing TD and wasn’t being used as a receiver. Then came Cleveland. In a 32-13 win, he finally got daylight and it looked different when he touched it — true juice, real burst, chunk gains, 7.5 yards per carry. That’s the element this offense has been missing.

Zoom out and the efficiency case is obvious. Rhamondre Stevenson has volume, not separation. He’s at 83 carries for 279 yards. Henderson sits at 53 for 228. Thirty fewer attempts, only about 50 fewer yards. Henderson owns the longer rush. The explosives are nearly even — Stevenson with two 20-plus runs, Henderson with one — which underscores how close the output is despite the gap in opportunity. Yes, Henderson lost a fumble against Cleveland, and that matters, but the tape and the pace say he earned more.

The opponent invites it. Since their bye the Falcons have coughed up the fourth-most rushing yards per game at 150. They’ve been gashed in consecutive weeks, and now travel north to face a Patriots team that can lean on speed to tilt the field. New England doesn’t need to overhaul the plan, just fold in designed touches that get Henderson to the edge and downhill before contact. He showed the acceleration to turn modest creases into explosive runs and that’s the exact pressure point for a defense leaking on the ground. Stevenson’s reliability keeps him active in the gameplan. Henderson’s burst is the difference maker that changes how drives can finish.

The Take: TreVeyon Henderson scores in Week 9 and asserts himself as a true usable option in the Patriots backfield.

Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers still cook even with JT rolling

The Tale: Indy rolls in as a 3.5-point road favorite with a 49.5 total because this offense has been a mac truck. Sixth in passing yards. First in points at almost 34 per game. Sixth in rushing yards. Daniel Jones is playing like an MVP with the fourth-most passing yards, 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Jonathan Taylor is first in carries, rushing yards and touchdowns. Tyler Warren is pacing tight ends in receiving yards. Michael Pittman Jr. leads with 43 catches and 400 yards while Josh Downs and Alec Pierce have chipped in key production. The hook is simple — the Colts are torching scoreboards, then forcing opponents to chase. Since Week 6, they’re the league’s biggest pass funnel, the only defense allowing more than 300 passing yards per game.

Pittsburgh sits 13th in rush defense at about 100 yards allowed per game. This isn’t meant to pose any threat to Taylor. He is the best back in football and looks like an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. Taylor can still rip chunk gains and finish drives while the overall environment tilts snaps and throws upward. When the Colts build leads, teams throw to keep up. That is where fantasy volume stacks for both quarterbacks.

Jones has been steady all season as QB6. Aaron Rodgers sits QB17 on the year and over the last three weeks Jones is QB8 while Rodgers is QB12. The Steelers defense looks scary on a spreadsheet and on a payroll sheet, yet it hasn’t played like a shut-down unit. Call it fraudulent if you want. The Colts are lighting scoreboards and their pass defense invites volume back. That is how you build a back-and-forth where both quarterbacks matter.

You’re starting Pittman, Warren and Downs. Pierce can fill a flex if needed. On the other side, Rodgers is a viable streamer in a week with several regular starters off the board.

The Take: Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers both deliver QB1 fantasy weeks in this spot.

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