We are going to play a fun game with some big names on the Yahoo Trade Market. It’s called, “Buy Low, or Let Him Go”.
Here we’ll look at the least productive hitters who were top-50 picks during fantasy baseball draft season. In an effort to omit those who have had their season impacted by injury, I considered only hitters who have accumulated at least 250 at-bats. These players were worth their weight in gold on draft day but have thus far been average at best. Should managers try to add them via a buy-low trade offer? Or should those who drafted them use the player’s name value to deal him for someone who has been much more productive this year?
Mookie Betts, 2B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Preseason ADP: 8.3
Current Overall Ranking: 118
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Betts took a small step backwards last year and has further regressed in 2025. A lower average exit velocity has been a problem, as his 88.4 mph mark this year is 1.5 mph lower than his AEV in 2024 and 3.0 mph lower than his mark in 2023. Betts continues to have outstanding plate discipline and should score 100 runs thanks to playing in an elite offense. But he hasn’t produced an impactful steals total since 2018 and may be more of a 20-homer player than a true slugger at this point in his career.
The Verdict: Let him go. I believe that Betts can still fetch a massive trade return, and I would look to make that move right now.
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Preseason ADP: 9.3
Current Overall Ranking: 148
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Henderson has met expectations in the batting average category (.277) and can reach the 20-steal plateau that was expected of him. His failures have been in the power department, where he may fall short of 20 homers after going deep 37 times last year. His average exit velocity (93.2 mph) remains elite, and his fly ball rate is nearly identical to 2024. A drop of over 10% in his HR/FB rate is the culprit, as well as a general malaise in an Orioles offense that was supposed to be excellent and instead ranks 18th in runs scored.
The Verdict: Buy low. This is a lost season for Baltimore, but Henderson could still have a strong second half. His skill set remains elite.
Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
Preseason ADP: 22.9
Current Overall Ranking: 124
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Duran’s regression is an example of “death by 1,000 cuts”. His strikeout rate is slightly worse. His walk rate is slightly worse. His BABIP is slightly worse. But more importantly, Duran’s HR/FB rate is down significantly, despite the fact that his average exit velocity has noticeably improved and his barrel rate has remained the same.
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The Verdict: I’m happy to buy low on someone with 87th percentile average exit velocity and 91st percentile sprint speed, especially when that player bats leadoff in a hitter-friendly home park. I expect his batting average and counting stat paces to improve in the second half.
Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves
Preseason ADP: 29.5
Current Overall Ranking: 100
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Riley’s power outage is curious. He averaged 36 homers over a three-year stretch from 2021-23 and was on a 30-homer pace in an injury-impacted 2024 season. He may not even reach the 25-homer plateau this year, despite maintaining elite marks in average exit velocity and fly ball rate. His 11.9% HR/FB rate should absorb much of the blame, as it’s much lower than his marks during his prime seasons.
The Verdict: Riley is the one player in this article that I would neither buy low nor let him go. The advanced stats suggest that he should rebound in the second half. At the same time, I can’t ignore the fact that aside from Ronald Acuña Jr., the entire Braves offense is underachieving for a second consecutive season. At this point, it seems like a fool’s errand to expect any of Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II or Marcell Ozuna to suddenly take off.
William Contreras, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Preseason ADP: 45.5
Current Overall Ranking: 264
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Contreras is yet another example in a long line of lessons to avoid early-round catchers. I fell into the trap in some leagues, and I’m paying for it now. We can’t fully blame the physical demands of the position, as Contreras has appeared in 78 games, but he has struggled nonetheless. His batting average is down 39 points and he is on pace for roughly half of his 2024 homer total (23). A 3.3 mph decline in average exit velocity is his biggest issue, as it has resulted in a significantly lower HR/FB rate, which is a big problem for someone who doesn’t hit many fly balls in the first place.
The Verdict: Let him go. I wouldn’t cut Contreras, but I would be happy to trade him away at a discount. The catcher position is deep this year, evidenced by the fact that a productive rookie like Agustín Ramírez is still available in 58% of leagues. I would be happy to trade Contreras for a player at a different position and find my catcher on waivers.
Michael Harris II, OF, Atlanta Braves
Preseason ADP: 47.9
Current Overall Ranking: 462
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Like Riley and several other Atlanta hitters, Harris was expected to bounce back from a disappointing 2024 season. Instead, the 24-year-old has taken a dramatic step backwards, he ranks last among qualified hitters in OBP (.238) and OPS (.559). The only point of optimism is that his expected stats via Statcast are much higher than his actual marks, but Harris has played so poorly of late that he could be a part-time player until his bat heats up.
The Verdict: I can’t recommend trading for someone who has played this poorly. In my opinion, Harris’ current roster rate of 79% is too high.
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