Hot springs, slow starts
Gavin Williams is a former first-round pick whose ADP soared later in draft season after he recorded a 2.08 ERA with a 32.4 K-BB% during five dominant spring starts. Williams’ average fastball velocity has been a career high (97.5 mph), but otherwise, his strong March hasn’t carried into the season. Williams owns a 4.76 SIERA and just an 8.1 K-BB% over two starts, which have come against offenses that both rank bottom-12 in wRC+. Williams’ Stuff+ has graded out well, but early returns have been discouraging.
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Clay Holmes was another ADP riser thanks to a terrific spring performance, when he posted a 0.93 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP while making a full-time move to the Mets’ rotation. Holmes has been elite out of the pen over the last three seasons, and the hope was an increase in pitch mix would offset the inevitable decrease in velocity with the move to starter.
But his first two starts to open the season haven’t been as successful, as Holmes’ 2.89 ERA comes with a 1.82 WHIP and a lowly 8.7 K-BB%. It’s only two starts, but he’s failed to reach five innings against struggling offenses. Holmes has yet to pitch in (and benefit from) Citi Field, and his BB% (13.0) and BABIP (.379) are sure to regress. But Holmes’ transition to starter may not go as smoothly as recent success stories such as Michael King.
Numbers Do Lie
My guy Nick Lodolo sports a 1.42 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP over two starts, but that’s accompanied by a 4.33 SIERA and a 10.4 K-BB%. No walks are nice, but this new version of Lodolo has also produced just five strikeouts over 12.2 innings. His CSW (20.8%) ranks 89th out of 93 qualified starters. He would’ve ranked top 12 in that stat last season despite pitching through an injured finger. Lodolo’s curveball break was supposed to return this season with a healthy grip, but instead, he’s producing his fewest Whiffs ever (which is an even greater concern when pitching home games at Great American Ballpark).
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As someone with Lodolo on plenty of fantasy teams, I’d prefer a much higher ERA but stronger peripherals, as the current results suggest pain lies ahead.
A healthy Jesús Luzardo
Luzardo remains a bigger-than-usual health risk, but he currently looks like the pitcher who posted a 3.48 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a 20.9 K-BB% (16th among SPs) over 2022-23. Luzardo’s velocity is up 1.2 mph compared to last season, and he has a much better chance of racking up wins now pitching for the Phillies. Small sample size caveats remain, but Luzardo has recorded a whopping 19 Ks over 12.0 innings, including shutting down the Dodgers his last time out. Luzardo ranks top 10 among starters in CSW (32.6%). Luzardo was drafted as the SP76 in Yahoo leagues, so he looks like one of the best fantasy picks early on.
Possible Pitcher Pickup
AJ Smith-Shawver hasn’t reached five innings and sports a 5.19 ERA and an ugly 2.19 WHIP over two starts. But he has intriguing peripherals under the hood that suggest patient fantasy managers will be rewarded. Smith-Shawver recorded a 21.1 K-BB% during spring, and his Whiff% (35.9) is in the 87th percentile over two starts. Smith-Shawver’s CSW (32.7%) intriguingly ranks eighth among qualified starters, just behind Tarik Skubal and tied with Zack Wheeler. Smith-Shawver needs to improve his control, but his abnormally high BABIP (.444 is third highest in MLB) and HR/FB rate (16.7%) will regress.
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Smith-Shawver has a tougher upcoming matchup versus the Phillies, but his spot in Atlanta’s rotation should now extend past Spencer Strider’s imminent return after Reynaldo López went down with a shoulder injury. The Braves’ offense is sure to wake up and is still projected to be among the league’s highest scoring teams (especially with Sean Murphy and eventually Ronald Acuña Jr. returning), so run support should be there. Smith-Shawver is available in 82% of Yahoo leagues.
Speed Round: Early results continue to suggest the baseballs are anything but “juiced” so far in 2025 … Junior Caminero is your early leader in average Bat Speed and Fast Swing rate by wide margins, while William Contreras’ ugly start has come with a negative launch angle … Dylan Crews’ 43.3 K% is in the bottom two percentile, while his wOBA (.112) is even worse … Chandler Simpson is going to be fun once he’s called up to Tampa Bay … Elly De La Cruz likely breaking some sort of baseball etiquette … Spencer Schwellenbach now has a 2.21 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and a 23.0 K-BB% over his last 17 starts.
BONUS: TV Talk!
“Adolescence” is a top contender for show of the year, with each episode impressively shot in one continuous take … Speaking of “Oners,” “The Studio” is a new comedy worth checking out … “The White Lotus” wasn’t perfect this season, and it hardly stuck its landing. But it remained highly entertaining and easily one of the shows I look forward to watching most … “Severance” was simultaneously brilliant and frustrating … If you’re into ER dramas, “The Pitt” is as good as it gets … If you haven’t checked out “Paradise,” do it without knowing it’s (terrific) premise … The final season of “The Righteous Gemstones” has been A+ … I’m in on “MobLand” through its first two episodes … Get pumped for new seasons of “The Rehearsal” and hopefully a return to form from “Black Mirror.”
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