Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Marlins are a defensive disaster, Pete Crow-Armstrong is on fire

As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

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Last week, I highlighted Jeffrey Springs and Edward Cabrera as pitchers who’ve struggled to hold runners on and five total bases were stolen in their starts last week.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Cam Smith, Caleb Durbin, and Ryan Gusto

A couple of overlooked prospects are proving their worth in fantasy leagues.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.

For someone barely reaching base, Luis Robert Jr., has been stealing plenty of bases and it’s saving his fantasy value at the moment.

Otherwise, Pete Crow-Armstrong is doing whatever he wants and looks like a rising star. Also, it’s encouraging to see Zach Neto be so aggressive after returning from his shoulder injury.

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Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.

Oneil Cruz becoming an elite base stealer is the biggest story of the fantasy season so far. Also, Kyle Tucker seems to be following the trend of stealing more bases during a contract year.

Next, here are some players with one of fewer stolen bases that we’d hoped would be more aggressive.

Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

A continuation of a season-long trend to this point, the Miami Marlins remain the best team to target when streaming stolen bases. Their 53 steals allowed is 17 more than the next closest team.

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For context, that’s the same difference between the Braves, who’ve allowed the second-most steals, and the Twins, who’ve allowed the 21st-most. Teams are running successfully on the Marlins at a borderline laughable pace.

Somehow, this trend has become more extreme over the past week with the promotion of Augustín Ramírez. While he’s been a revelation on offense, other teams are clearly targeting him when he’s behind the plate.

In just five starts at catcher so far, there’ve been 13 stolen base attempts against him and he hasn’t caught a single would-be base stealer yet. He’s been splitting time back there with Liam Hendricks, who himself has only thrown out only two of 20 base stealers this season.

Of course, stolen bases can often be traced back to pitchers as much or more so than catchers and the Marlins’ have some easy culprits there too.

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Amidst the rest of his struggles, Sandy Alcantara has allowed the most stolen bases of any pitcher in the league this season with 11. The Dodgers stole five against him and Ramírez on Tuesday in fewer than three innings.

Additionally, Edward Cabrera has allowed the second-most stolen bases this season with 10 despite only making four starts so far. The Dodgers stole three more bags off him on Monday in just three innings of work and he’s ranked dead-last in Baseball Savant’s Net Bases Prevented.

The Braves are not off the hook here either. I mentioned them as a target a few weeks ago with rookie catcher Drake Baldwin’s defensive struggles. They have not gotten better as he’s allowed 16 stolen bases in 11 starts and only caught one would-be base stealer.

I thought their situation would improve with Sean Murphy’s return. However teams have attempted 20 stolen bases in just 14 starts behind the plate and he’s caught four runners.

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A few of their pitchers like Chris Sale, Pierce Johnson, and Dylan Lee have struggled to hold runners on, but not to the degree of Cabrera nor Alcantara.

Regardless, these are the two best two teams to stream stolen bases against right now.

Cubs Running Wild

The Cubs just had an active and impressive past week on the base paths.

First, they stole nine bags over two games against the Dodgers. Will Smith has a great defensive reputation and as a team, the Dodgers were one of the best teams at throwing out runners last season.

Next, Chicago swiped four more bases in a single game against the Phillies started by Taijuan Walker with J.T. Realmuto behind the plate.

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Walker is known for his incredible pick-off move and is one of nine pitchers who have successfully picked off multiple base runners this season. Plus, Realmuto is still a stud behind the plate. Neither are easy to run against, but the Cubs did so with ease.

Besides the aforementioned Crow-Armstrong, Jon Berti has taken over the Cubs’ third base job since Matt Shaw’s demotion and has stolen seven bases this season. Dansby Swanson and Tucker have been pushing the envelope as well.

No-Run Zone

The Mets and Brewers are the only teams who have caught at least 45% of would-be base stealers this season.

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I talked about Luis Torrens’ prowess a few weeks ago and the Mets incredible turnaround against the running game over the past year. Overall, they’ve caught nine of 19 base-stealers so far.

As far as the Brewers go, William Contreras’ development as a defensive star isn’t talked about enough.

He was considered more of a designated hitter than could also catch a few years ago when Milwaukee acquired him from the Braves. Now, he’s one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. He’s already thrown out nine base stealers – most in the league – and has become an adept pitch framer.

Avoid streaming stolen bases against these two teams.