While they don’t all root for the same schools, college football fans across the country are mostly similar. They care about their team and want what’s best for them. As the season approaches, optimism reaches its highest levels.
“You know, looking at the schedule, and reading the reports of how everyone looked in spring, I’m starting to think this team could surprise a lot of people.”
However, in the back of all our minds, there’s that other voice. The one who speaks in an overly confident whisper. It tells you of the other side.
“We didn’t do enough in the portal this offseason. We are one injury away from the season being a disaster.”
Big Ten transfers poised to make instant impact: Nico Iamaleava, Justice Haynes set for big 2025 seasons
Tom Fornelli
The best-case and worst-case scenarios exist in perpetuity and dominate our brains during the offseasons. The only difference is what those best cases and worst cases are. For some schools, the best case might be getting to a bowl game, and that would be a pleasant surprise! Then there are the schools where a 9-3 season and missing the College Football Playoff would be an unmitigated disaster.
Which school is which, and what are the voices inside the heads of all Big Ten fans thinking this summer? I’ve done my best to creep into the psyche of the Big Ten football fan and figure that out for you. What follows are the dreams and nightmares of fans from Piscataway, New Jersey, to Los Angeles, California.
Best Case 11-1: For once, an Illini team with preseason hype lives up to it and even improves. Quarterback Luke Altmyer proves to be one of the best QBs in the Big Ten and is at the helm of one of the most efficient offenses in the league. The defense continues to create havoc and turnovers.
Worst Case 5-7: The losses at receiver lead to a significant drop in offensive production. Injuries at key spots, perhaps even QB, derail the season as a team that thrived in close games last year doesn’t produce the same results in those spots this year.
Best Case 11-1: Curt Cignetti hits the portal lottery again, with all the new Hoosiers blending in seamlessly with the returners, allowing the Hoosiers to overcome a far more difficult schedule than the one they faced last year. Fernando Mendoza has people talking Heisman and the possibility of being a No. 1 pick.
Worst Case 5-7: The transfers don’t hit as well, and the Hoosiers find themselves struggling against a difficult road schedule that includes Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. They also drop a few home games to teams like Illinois and Wisconsin and go from the CFP in 2024 to missing a bowl in 2025.
Iowa
Best Case 10-2: Mark Gronowski puts an end to the Iowa QB Curse and gives the Hawkeyes a balanced, efficient offense. The defense gets back to 2022 levels of dominance and forces a billion turnovers, leading to an upset win over either Penn State or Oregon (maybe both!) at Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes, currently at +730 to reach the College Football Playoff according to FanDuel Sportsbook, make the 12-team field. Kirk Ferentz signs a 10-year extension.
Worst Case 4-8: The offensive gains seen last year disappear with Kaleb Johnson, and the Hawkeyes once again find themselves struggling to score 10 points per game on offense. The defense continues its slide toward the middle of the pack and isn’t able to bail the offense out anymore. The Hawkeyes go winless on the road, including losses to rivals like Iowa State, Wisconsin and Nebraska. After the season ends, fans learn Kirk Ferentz signed a 10-year extension in October.
Best Case 9-3: After a season that saw the Terps win only one Big Ten game, the program is revived under true freshman Malik Washington, who began the season splitting snaps but grabbed hold of the starting job and never looked back. While the team loses home games to Nebraska and Michigan, they pull off a few road upsets to ruin the seasons of others while finding themselves in the playoff discussion into November.
Worst Case 3-9: One of the worst defenses in the Big Ten last season only gets worse and allows nearly 35 points per game, far too many for its young, overmatched offense to keep up with. After starting the year 3-0 in nonconference play, a Big Ten schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State, Penn State or Oregon smacks the Terps in the face repeatedly, and fans are enraged when the school gives Mike Locksley one more year.
Michigan
Best Case 12-0: Bryce Underwood lives up to the hype (and the paycheck) to immediately reinvigorate the program. Nobody blinks when he throws four touchdowns in the opener against New Mexico, but after he throws for 300 and rushes for 100 against Oklahoma a week later, he becomes the story of college football. On the defensive side, the losses aren’t felt for long as new studs emerge and the Wolverines roll through the regular season. After beating Ohio State for a fifth straight year, the NCAA issues a formal apology for all that hullabaloo about sign stealing.
Worst Case 7-5: It turns out Jim Harbaugh was important to the program. Underwood shows flashes but is a true freshman prone to making mistakes. The Wolverines are blown out by Oklahoma and then lose again at Nebraska while Sherrone Moore serves his suspension. More road losses follow against USC and rival Michigan State. Then the regular season ends with a blowout loss to Ohio State, in which the Buckeyes exorcise all the demons. The NCAA then hits the program with a two-year postseason ban.
Michigan State
Best Case 9-3: Aidan Chiles shows development, and while his accuracy continues to be a problem, his decision-making improves tremendously, leading to far fewer turnovers. He also makes enough wow throws to fill social media with highlights. The Spartans knock off Michigan at home thanks to Chiles and a rapidly improving defense under Joe Rossi. A loss to Penn State in November ends the playoff dreams, but when Chiles announces he intends to return for 2026, the nation immediately begins hyping this program up as a 2026 dark horse.
Worst Case 3-9: Aidan Chiles continues to make bad decisions that lead to turnovers and continuously put the Michigan State defense in bad positions. An early loss to Boston College shakes the team’s confidence a bit, and it craters following consecutive road losses to USC and Nebraska. Things only get worse down the stretch, and Chiles is benched before hitting the portal following the season, leading to a lot of question marks about Jonathan Smith’s program heading into 2026.
Best Case 10-2: The Gophers do that thing they do where they aren’t good enough to beat Ohio State and Oregon on the road, but their rushing attack is effective enough to keep them in games against everybody else. Drake Lindsey isn’t asked to do a lot at QB, but he makes enough big throws to keep defenses honest as Darius Taylor, AJ Taylor and Cam Davis grind them down. Koi Perich emerges as a Thorpe Award candidate in the secondary, leading a defense with plenty of returning production. It’s not exciting, but dammit, it works, and the Gophers finish 10-2, sneaking into the playoff as the 11-seed.
Worst Case 4-8: Losses on the offensive line prove too much to overcome, and Minnesota is unable to run the ball effectively against any defense with a pulse. This leads to far too much being put on Drake Lindsey’s shoulders offensively, and he can’t handle it. On defense, the unit starts the season well but wears down physically as the season progresses, leading to injuries that put too many inexperienced players at key spots. The only wins come against Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers and Purdue, as the season ends with six straight losses.
Nebraska
Best Case 11-1: After nearly 15 years of hoping Nebraska is back, Nebraska is finally back. Dylan Raiola takes a huge step forward in his sophomore season, playing so well that the world begins to wonder if Patrick Mahomes should start to mimic him instead. The transfers and incoming freshmen give the Huskers one of the best receiving corps in the league, and the loss of Tony Gibson on defense isn’t felt. Nebraska’s only loss comes on the road to Penn State after a 10-0 start, and the Huskers make their first trip to the Big Ten Championship since 2012. The only downside is that after the season, Dana Holgorsen leaves to take the head coaching job at Oklahoma State.
Worst Case 5-7: Nebraska is not back. It turns out the 2024 season was a bit of a fluke, as the offense struggles because Dylan Raiola spends too much time watching Jackson Mahomes on TikTok and not enough time studying game film. A lack of explosive plays on offense and defense put the Huskers in too many difficult spots, and it all ends with a home loss to Iowa on Black Friday to keep the team from going to a bowl game. Dylan Raiola enters the transfer portal immediately. Matt Rhule enters 2026 firmly on the hot seat.
Best Case 7-5: All the graduate transfers the Wildcats added this offseason prove invaluable. While the team doesn’t compete for a Big Ten title, Preston Stone brings a level of competency to the offense that causes opposing fans to stop chalking this team up as an automatic “W” on the schedule. The biggest improvement is seen on defense, as an older, smarter unit helps keep the team in more games.
Worst Case 2-10: We not only see more of the same from last season, but things get worse. Preston Stone suffers an injury, and the new-look offensive line refuses to gel. Defensively, the transfers solve nothing, and this team is overmatched athletically most weeks. They beat Western Illinois and ULM, but that’s it. David Braun is fired after the season as the program looks to inject excitement into the program ahead of a move to a new stadium, but the school is disappointed to find that their Big Ten job isn’t as attractive as hoped in the new college football landscape.
Ohio State
Best Case 12-0: None of the losses matter. Julian Sayin proves to be better than Will Howard, and Jeremiah Smith plays so well that Congress forces the NFL to get rid of its rule saying a player must be three years removed from high school before he’s draft-eligible. Matt Patricia’s defense is one of the best in the country, and he finds ways to make Caleb Downs look like even more of a superstar. After an upset win over Texas to open the season, the Buckeyes cruise through the schedule, proving to be far too much for Penn State and Michigan to handle. They earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Worst Case 9-3: The horror of a 9-3 season! After a season-opening loss to Texas, new starting QB Julian Sayin struggles to adapt and never grabs a firm hold of the starting position. It forces Ryan Day to play musical chairs at quarterback all year, and that keeps the offense from ever finding its stride. The Buckeyes still overwhelm most opponents but lose to Texas, Penn State, and, worst of all, Michigan. They’re left out of the playoff, and suddenly, Ohio State message boards aren’t so sure Ryan Day is the man for the job after all.
Oregon
Best Case 12-0: Dan Lanning finally breaks through. The Ducks send an emphatic message to the rest of the Big Ten and the country as a whole that last season wasn’t the result of a veteran team. No, even the new-look Ducks, with a brand-new QB and without an injured Evan Stewart, are too good for the Big Ten. They win the league yet again, tallying a massive road victory over Penn State along the way and vanquishing old Pac-12 foes USC and Washington to end the season. They return to the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 seed again, but this time, they won’t have to face Ohio State as an 8-seed.
Worst Case 8-4: It turns out that an experienced QB is important when competing at the elite level of the sport. Dante Moore shows plenty of flashes, but the consistency isn’t there, and he struggles in games outside Autzen Stadium. Replacing two starting tackles on the offensive line proves difficult, and the loss of Evan Stewart leaves the Ducks without a true vertical threat in the passing game. Defensively, things are mostly fine, but not elite. Nobody bats an eye when the Ducks lose to Penn State, but the loss on the road to Iowa a month later causes alarm. Alarm that only grows louder with losses to USC and Washington to end the season and keep the Ducks out of the playoffs.
Penn State
Best Case 12-0: Following the blueprint put in place by Michigan and Ohio State the last two years works perfectly. Drew Allar takes his game to the next level and thrives in Penn State’s toughest games. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen both rush for over 1,000 yards again but do so with fewer carries. The transfer additions at WR all hit, and Jim Knowles’ defense is impenetrable. Once the Nittany Lions get past Ohio State to improve to 8-0 we all wonder if anybody in the country can beat this team. They earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Worst Case 9-3: Ironically, the worst-case scenario for Penn State is one we’ve seen play out regularly. The difference is this season, the expectations have been raised. Penn State proves to be better than most opponents all year, and the home loss to Oregon doesn’t cause any panic, even though Drew Allar once again struggled in a big spot. Full-on panic doesn’t hit until the following week when Penn State goes is upset on the road by Nico Iamaleava and UCLA. A month later, the Nittany Lions lose on the road to Ohio State, officially putting an end to their playoff and Big Ten title hopes. They finish the regular season with four more wins, but it all feels empty. James Franklin’s name is constantly connected to the job openings at LSU, Florida and Florida State.
Purdue
Best Case 6-6: Barry Odom’s idea to essentially bring in an entirely new roster proves prudent. While the Boilermakers don’t see the immediate success rival Indiana had in 2024, going from 1-11 to 6-6 will feel much the same. While the games against Notre Dame and the upper half of the Big Ten will prove far too difficult, Purdue is able to hang around more of them, and they’re downright pesky against everybody else. They’re able to steal enough winnable home games and even pilfer a couple on the road against Minnesota and Northwestern to shock the world and go bowling.
Worst Case: 1-11: It’s more of the same. While the names and faces are mostly new, the results don’t change. The defense is outmatched, as is the offense, particularly in the trenches. The effort and buy-in are there, but the results aren’t. Like last year, the sole win comes against the only FCS opponent on the schedule in Southern Illinois.
Rutgers
Best Case 9-3: A Rutgers offense that finished sixth in the league with 28.9 points per game last season improves with Athan Kaliakmanis returning. The loss of Kyle Monangai isn’t felt, as the Knights take more of a committee approach without him, and the offensive line does a great job opening lanes. Defensively, the new-look front seven proves saltier than a slice of capicola, and the Knights take advantage of their schedule. They’re the talk of the nation after starting the year 9-1, but playoff talk quickly subsides following losses to Ohio State and Penn State to end the season.
Worst Case 3-9: The offense regresses as it fails to replace the production of leading rusher Kyle Monangai and leading receiver Dymere Miller. Athan Kaliakmanis gets banged up as the offense becomes overly reliant on him, further complicating matters. Defensively, the transfers are hit-and-miss, and the Knights struggle on the road, failing to win a single game. In fact, they don’t win a single Big Ten game, dropping Greg Schiano’s Big Ten record to 13-41 since his return.
UCLA
Best Case 9-3: Nico Iamaleava makes Tennessee wish it coughed up the dough. The return home to California proves to be the elixir needed to realize his five-star potential. UCLA’s offense emerges as one of the most explosive in the Big Ten, leading to upset wins over Utah, Washington and USC. However, the Bruins don’t have enough to beat Penn State or Ohio State, and the repeated trips back and forth across the country also contribute to a road loss against Indiana in late October.
Worst Case 2-10: Those close wins in the latter half of the 2024 season? Yeah, it turns out four one-score wins over mostly mediocre competition may have been misleading. The Bruins look a lot more like the team that was overwhelmed during the first half of 2024. Nico Iamaleava not only fails to improve but regresses in an offense that doesn’t have quite the same weapons or scheme advantages he enjoyed at Tennessee. The defense that allowed 27 points per game in Big Ten play last year doesn’t improve, and the Bruins cut Deshaun Foster loose when the season ends.
USC
Best Case 11-1: Lincoln Riley is an offensive genius again, Jayden Maiava plays like his next Heisman winner and the departures at receiver prove to be addition by subtraction. More importantly, the time and effort put into rebuilding the defense since last offseason starts to bear real fruit, as the USC defense becomes a top-half unit in the league. It’s not elite, but combined with an offense scoring 37 points per game, it’s plenty good enough. The only loss comes on the road against Notre Dame, which means the Trojans go 9-0 in Big Ten play and qualify for their first Big Ten Championship Game. Win or lose, they’re in the College Football Playoff.
Worst Case 5-7: They should’ve been more active in the portal looking for a quarterback because Jayden Maiava isn’t the answer. The interior of the offensive line struggles, leading to problems in both the passing offense and the rushing offense. The same road struggles we saw last year continue in 2025, and the defense doesn’t improve at all. After a 4-0 start that hides the cracks, it all falls apart in a four-game losing streak, starting with a road trip to Illinois. Fans call for Lincoln Riley’s head following a season-ending loss to UCLA to drop to 5-7. They don’t get it. The buyout is too much. Maybe next year!
Washington
Best Case 11-1: Demond Williams Jr. lives up to the offseason hype and instantly becomes one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten. His ascendance combined with Jonah Coleman gives Washington one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the country, as defenses are forced to live in fear of both his arm and legs. The nation doesn’t take notice until Williams leads the Huskies to a shocking upset over Ohio State at Husky Stadium in late September, but from that point on, this team is a national darling. The only blemish is a road loss to Michigan, as the Huskies reach their first Big Ten Championship and return to the College Football Playoff.
Worst Case 5-7: Williams flashes brilliance at times, but now that he’s the full-time starter, there are the inconsistencies you expect from a young QB, no matter how talented. Newcomers on the offensive line don’t pan out, and injuries result in the Huskies relying on a few too many freshmen up front to be competitive in the Big Ten most weeks. Defensively, the transfer haul doesn’t do enough to turn this into a top-half of the league unit. The schedule is too difficult to overcome, particularly in the latter half of the season.
Wisconsin
Best Case 8-4: There’s far more cohesion on the sidelines, and it feels like everybody is pulling in the same direction, particularly on offense. Transfer QB Billy Edwards doesn’t light the world on fire but proves far more reliable than Braedyn Locke did last year. However, where the team truly takes a step forward is on defense. The unit looks like everybody thought it’d look when Luke Fickell and Mike Tressel came to Madison, and it keeps the Badgers in damn near every game. While they fall short against Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon, the Badgers look like the Badgers of old again. Everybody is convinced they’ll make the playoffs in 2026 when the schedule eases considerably.
Worst Case 3-9: The QB position continues to be a problem as Billy Edwards falters in the new Jeff Grimes offense, and neither of his fellow transfer backups proves to be more effective. There’s a serious lack of explosive plays in the offense, meaning the unit has to be damn near perfect to get points on any possession. Defensively, the new faces across the two-deep don’t lead to any noticeable improvement, and this team is ground down to a nub by the time November arrives.
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