Draft Anticipation Rising - Yahoo Sports

The NFL offseason is tediously long. If your team doesn’t make the playoffs, it’s a long eight months until you can enjoy competitive football again. To make the time go (somewhat) faster, I like to break the offseason into four quarters: the first covers the start of the new league year and the initial free-agent frenzy; the second covers the NFL draft; the third covers OTAs/minicamps; and the fourth covers training camp and preseason.

We’re now in the second quarter, with the draft just two weeks away. By all accounts, interim general manager Rob Brzezinski is all-in on the best player available (BPA) strategy – or at least that’s what he wants people to believe. This comes from the Vikings’ YouTube channel:

“I think it’s the biggest reason why a lot of players fail in this business…you force a need. And for a lot of reasons it doesn’t work out, and you pass on a player of higher ability for a position of need…it may be old school, but if you get your board set right, and look for the best player available, I think it’s going to lead you down the right path.”

Not sure I’d be on board with this if you’re a 3-14 team undertaking a complete rebuild. In that case, I’m an advocate for building the trenches first, then working your way out. But I certainly agree with the merits of this strategy when you’re in the Vikings’ position: a team with a talented, playoff-ready roster and Super Bowl aspirations.

It should also be noted that the term “best player available” is entirely subjective. Two GMs and scouting departments can view the same player very differently in a pure, need-based assessment. What they prioritize, such as schematic compatibility, college experience/snap counts, and immediate impact vs. long-term potential, can all be factored into the BPA formula. Given this is Brzezinski’s first rodeo and there’s no precedent to go off of, what this means could be anyone’s guess.

Depending on how the board falls, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Vikings took any of the following positions at #18 overall: S, DL, EDGE, CB, TE, or WR. Everyone has a preference, and Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman has been the consensus favorite in the national mock drafts I’ve seen. It would make total sense. I was on record as being surprised that no safety was taken in last year’s draft; as much as we’d all like it, Harrison Smith isn’t going to be around forever.

MY (LIKELY) MISGUIDED TAKE

All else equal, if the team has similar grades internally on several prospects, I wouldn’t mind going DL or EDGE with the first pick.

I’ve noted my surprise that both Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were released. I expected one, but not both. This leaves the depth perilously thin. I fully expect Jalen Redmond to continue his journey toward becoming a perennial Pro Bowl/All-Pro player. I also like the potential of LDR and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, but adding someone like Clemson’s Peter Woods or Ohio State’s Kayden McDonald would calm the nerves. The former is more versatile, with positional and pass-rushing upside, while the latter is a bigger, run-stuffing anchor who can make third-and-longs commonplace. If you put any stock in Mel Kiper’s Big Board, both Woods (#19) and McDonald (#21) are above Thieneman (#22). Auburn EDGE Keldric Faulk could be ideal at #18 as well. I wouldn’t sleep on that possibility if BPA aligns with the realities of an unresolved situation involving Jonathan Greenard.

The fact that both Allen and Hargrave were released could be a sign that Brzezinski and company don’t have a clear favorite at CB, S, or any other position graded ahead of a top DL prospect. Sure, DJ Reader, Christian Wilkins, and others are options after the draft, but you already had one viable option in-house. Yes, I know the Vikings needed to get under the cap, and yes, I realize there will be offsets/cap credits due to both signing new deals elsewhere. It just seems like it could have been easier to keep one of Allen or Hargrave, complete with their one year of experience in Brian Flores’s system. We’ll see how it goes.

Indeed, it could be the ideal scenario in which the BPA aligns with the need. The signing of James Pierre alleviates some concern at cornerback, especially after the success of first-time starter Isaiah Rodgers in 2025. The vibes point to Harrison Smith running it back, which would offer a successful continuation of the Metellus-Jackson-Smith Big Nickel variations Flores has used so well. T.J. Hockenson effectively took a pay cut in exchange for earlier free agency in 2027. Tai Felton was a third-round pick and could be poised to assume the Jalen Nailor role. There’s optimism that this could be the case.

Or I could be way off. Remember, I picked the Vikings to go 12-5 last season. But a broken clock is right twice a day, too.

NO ROOM FOR ERROR

The Vikings have flexibility in how they approach the upcoming draft. With four picks currently in the Top 100 (#18, #49, #82, #97), they can check many boxes; it’s just a matter of the order and strategy for getting it done. There is no urgency to, as Rob Brzezinski noted above, “force a need.”

But make no mistake: The first three rounds are where the rubber hits the road; they’re the foundation for sustained success. Far more often than not, these picks need to be immediate or near-immediate starters. As I’ve said before: free agency is meant to supplement the draft, not replace it.

As has been the case too often for the Vikings recently, misses can leave you scrambling. This, in turn, can force you to play catch-up in free agency. Sometimes this works (Greenard/Van Ginkel/Rodgers/Wilson), and sometimes it doesn’t (Davenport/Allen/Hargrave/Kelly). Even when it works, it can leave you with cap issues, which, in turn, limit your ability to fix things via free agency in the future. Case in point: Jonathan Greenard has outplayed his original free agent contract and deserves a raise. Now it’s a problem. And while we lucked out getting Kyler Murray for the league minimum as the starter in 2026 (as many expect), if he goes out and parties like Sam Darnold 2024, then we could be looking at a significant contract extension. Indeed, not even the Vikings can let the Darnold situation repeat itself. Right? Riiiiight???

The Vikings loaded up the cap around the quarterback position because they finally thought they held the elusive “QB on a rookie deal” card. Even if my wish comes true and J.J. McCarthy does end up being the QBOTF, this is now Year 3, and a former #1 overall pick in Murray is here. Stranger things have happened, but the odds are stacked against 2026 being the year McCarthy breaks out as originally envisioned.

Did I mention the imperative to hit on those first four picks in a couple of weeks?

IT’S NOW OR NEVER

Yes, that’s Elvis you hear in the background.

While Brzezinski’s standing within the organization is likely secure beyond 2026, regardless of how the general manager situation unfolds, the same can’t be said for KOC and others. If the Vikings miss the playoffs again, his seat could turn into molten lava faster than my blood pressure spikes whenever 1998 is mentioned. Even a one-and-done in the playoffs could spell doom. The Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz moves underscore the urgency of the 2026 season. Playoff success is essential.

However the draft unfolds for the Vikings, it’s imperative that Brzezinski bring home some immediate contributors. In the last four drafts, the Vikings have gotten only 172 total starts from draft picks, the second fewest in the NFL over that span. That is…(checks notes)…not good.

CONCLUSION

If a BPA-heavy strategy influences Brzezinski in the early rounds, I’ll be pleased if we use those four Top 100 picks to address any of the following (in no particular order): interior defensive line, safety, cornerback, wide receiver, tight end, or center. Hopefully, we can land some nice depth pieces later on with the fifth, sixth, and three Spielmans, I mean sevenths.

In the end, we must see something that more closely resembles 2015 than 2016. If we repeat 2022, then auction off each of next year’s picks to the highest bidder for charity.

Whatever happens, though, remember it can always be worse. I once heard an NFL team missed its draft pick. Oof. I’d hate to be a fan of that franchise.

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