Did Dyche deserve the sack at Nottingham Forest?

When Sean Dyche was nominated for the January Manager of the Month award just seven days ago, he presumably didn’t expect to be out of a job two games later.

Defeat by Leeds United and a goalless draw in Wednesday’s meeting with bottom side Wolves has prompted Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis to call time on Dyche’s four-month tenure as head coach, but the former Burnley and Everton boss could argue that he has been hard done by.

That nomination came on the back of league wins over Brentford and struggling West Ham United, defeat by third-placed Aston Villa and a point at home to leaders Arsenal.

Throw in an FA Cup exit on penalties at the hands of Championship side Wrexham, a Europa League defeat by Sporting Braga, followed by a thumping win over Ferencvaros to secure a knockout phase play-off, and Forest’s form since the turn of the year has been the definition of a mixed bag.

In fact, in a league table based on the 18 matches since Dyche took charge on 21 October, they sit 12th. The Englishman departs the City Ground having won six of those games, collecting more league points – 22 – in the same number of games than Forest’s two previous managers combined.

That win rate of 33.3% is the best of Dyche’s top-flight managerial career, surpassing the 27.9% he recorded at Burnley and the 28% achieved at Everton. By the same measure, the Englishman sits a respectable third out of Forest’s eight permanent Premier League managers.

Lack of goals

Dyche leaves the club in 17th, one place higher than he found them, but just three league wins at home, the last of which was on 14 December, had led to frustration among the Forest faithful. Their displeasure was audible in that defeat in Braga, where the travelling support booed their team off the pitch.

Whoever Forest appoint as their fourth permanent head coach of the season, the ongoing problem this term is a lack of goals.

The club’s all-time Premier League top scorer, Chris Wood, didn’t play a single minute under Dyche because of a knee injury picked up in his predecessor Ange Postecoglou’s final game.

Only Wolves have scored fewer than Forest’s 25 goals in the league, and particularly glaring is how profligate their forward line has been in Wood’s absence. Forest’s 35 shots without scoring on Wednesday night was the most by a team without finding the net in almost a decade.

Questioned by players he struggled to bond with

While Dyche’s stats showed he was essentially fulfilling the brief, his style and methods had already raised the question about how sustainable his reign would be.

Dyche’s argument is he had to play with what he had and, up until last month, he was still getting results, but more would have been expected with a squad including Murillo, Elliot Anderson, Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi.

There was internal frustration at Forest over Postecoglou’s inability, despite encouragement, to build a bond with the fans and the club, but Dyche struck the right tone immediately.

A product of the club’s youth system, Dyche tapped into memories of Brian Clough and his dog Del-Boy, and of running by the river Trent, but it only appeased fans – and players – for so long.

He was credited with initially raising the mood after Postcoglou’s brief reign as Forest looked to rediscover their unity.

Yet sources suggest he struggled to bond with some of the players and they questioned his methods and tactics, as he focused on the physicality of the squad.

Players’ opinions were also canvassed in the aftermath of the Leeds game and they did not give Dyche their full backing.

By then Forest had already started to consider their options with Vitor Pereira – the leading candidate to become the new manager – already on the radar before the loss at Elland Road. Talks continued this week, allowing Forest to axe Dyche in the early hours of Thursday morning.

It was a decision made with reluctance, but Dyche’s appointment was out of necessity in the first place after the self-inflicted wounds of Nuno Espirito Santo’s exit and Postecoglou’s appointment.

Dyche’s dismissal may have been unavoidable but Marinakis’ judgment and temperament will be called into question as he fights to get it right this time.

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