Coming off the first NASCAR Cup Series playoff race of the season, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is already crunching the numbers. Who will make it to the Round of 12?
The former racing star turned team owner and analyst opened up on the topic, highlighting two drivers that are in a less than ideal situation right now. Neither should come as a surprise.
“Josh Berry is in a tough spot,” Earnhardt said on the Dale Jr. Download. “Wrecked on the first lap of the race, car bottomed out really bad. Did you see that? Wasn’t that weird? Well, that cost him a great finish. But dude, I mean when I look at this, nobody’s in big trouble.
“Berry, (Alex) Bowman at -19. You can’t have another bad race, then it’s over. But I think if you’re Bowman or Berry and you come out of St. Louis at -10 or better, how are you feeling? All you’re trying to do is give yourself a shot. I don’t see how Bowman or Berry looking at … SVG … looking at the rest of these guys, man. You’re not talking about making gains on the field, you’re talking about making gains on the top 12.”
One thing that was interesting was that one driver currently below the playoff cut line is almost a sure thing to end up on the right side of the line when it comes down to the Round of 12, Earnhardt said. That’s Joey Logano.
Earnhardt and his co-host agreed Logano is likely to advance past this round. “Joey’s taking a spot,” Earnhardt said.
For the drivers below the current playoff cut line, Earnhardt noted they might need some help. The drivers in front of them might have to trip up to open a window.
“These guys are going to have to have problems,” Earnhardt said. “But you have, basically, (Ross) Chastain at +21 is pretty comfortable. From eighth on forward I think, barring any massive issue, they’re cruising through this round.”
So who might end up below the playoff cut line if one or two of the drivers currently below fight their way up? Earnhardt and his co-host disagreed on whether Austtin Cindric fits the bill.
“Cindric, I think (Christopher) Bell‘s good enough at +11 to not have to be concerned,” Earhnhardt said. “Chase Elliott‘s consistent enough at +9. So I mean Cindric and SVG, who we all were talking about might miss the next round, those are the only two guys that I see any of these four down here — Logano, (Austin) Dillon, Bowman, Berry — I only see two guys, two spots available.”
Earnhardt defended the idea that Cindric might slip up, which was something his co-host didn’t see happening. He explained.
“Cindric could have a rough day,” Earnhardt said. “He shows up sometimes and will run 12th, he’ll show up some other times and run 28th. I just haven’t seen enough over the course of the last several years to really know Cindric’s going to be a lock.
“What if Logano out-pointed Cindric and then someone else out-pointed SVG? It’s only 15 (points). Can Logano out-point Cindric, 15 points in the next two weeks?”
We’ll see. But there is certainly no shortage of interesting storylines at play.
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