Cubs BCB After Dark: Which outfielder should get an extension?

It’s Wednesday night here at BCB After Dark: the most happening hangout for night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. We’re so glad you decided to stop by. Come in out of the cold. We can check your coat for you. We’ve got a fire going and the show will start soon. There’s no cover charge tonight. Bring your own beverage.

BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.

Last night, I asked you where the Cubs were most vulnerable heading into the season. Thirty-five percent of you thought the biggest issue was the bullpen, and that makes a lot of sense. Another 31 percent of you said “outfield depth,” and that makes a lot of sense too. I wonder about the two percent of you who said “infield depth.” I guess if you don’t believe in Matt Shaw that could be a problem, but is that the biggest potential problem on the team?

Here’s the part where we listen to music and talk movies. The BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic starts the third round tonight. But you’re free to skip all that. You won’t hurt my feelings.

My adage when I can’t think of anything to play is to just play the hits. So tonight, we have a classic from Count Basie and his Orchestra on the BBC in 1965. This is “April in Paris,” which you’ve probably heard many times, even if only in Blazing Saddles.

You voted in the BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic and you decided to send Back to the Future to the final eight over The Matrix. A lot of you noted that I probably would have voted for The Matrix (I don’t vote except to break ties) but were it up to me, this round would have been Gattaca against 12 Monkeys, so I’m not going to get too worked up.

With that, we close out the second round and move on to the third. We also move back to the “Classic” period where we have a battle of two heavyweights: The Day the Earth Stood Still and Godzilla (Gojira). I put the Japanese title in the matchup to make clear that were voting on the Japanese original. The English-language version is called Godzilla: King of the Monsters. I’ve mentioned that version with Raymond Burr is a lot of fun but it is definitely the inferior version.

The Day the Earth Stood Still (1951). Directed by Robert Wise. Starring Michael Rennie, Patricia Neal and Hugh Marlowe.

Here’s what I wrote last time about The Day the Earth Stood Still.

The key clip from The Day the Earth Stood Still is Patricia Neal saying “Klaatu Barada Nikto” to Gort, but I used that one last time. But it’s just a magnificent piece of filmmaking from director Wise. You can see how he would go on to win two Oscars for directing.

This clip of Klaatu (Rennie) emerging from the saucer is also good.

Godzilla (1954). Directed by Ishirō Honda. Starring Akira Takarada, Momoko Kōchi, Akihiko Hirata and Takashi Shimura.

Here’s what I wrote last time about Godzilla.

Here’s Godzilla emerging out of Tokyo Bay.

Both of these films are dealing with the anxieties of the nuclear age from different sides of the Pacific. For Americans, the destruction of nuclear weapons was only theoretical and in The Day the Earth Stood Still, Klaatu comes as a Christ-like savior to lead us to the path of peace. No one gets hurt other than Klaatu. Even he (sort of, thanks the Production Code) comes back to life.

Of course for the Japanese, the terror of nuclear weapons was all too real and Godzilla wrecks major havoc to the country. Tens or hundreds of thousands are likely dead in Godzilla’s wake. The message isn’t so much “live in peace with nuclear weapons” as it is “get rid of them because someone is going to use one again eventually.”

Both films are fantastic. Tough choice tonight. But now is your time to make it.

You have until Monday to make your vote. Next up is the finals in our “New Hollywood” bracket between 2001: A Space Odyssey and Planet of the Apes (1968).

Welcome back to everyone who skips the music and movies.

Earlier this decade, the Cubs were lining up all of their big contracts to run out at the end of this year. That’s gone a bit by the wayside with the signings of Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman and Phil Maton, but for the most part, the Cubs are going to have a few free agents at the end of 2026 if they don’t sign them to extensions before that.

Both Cubs starting corner outfielders, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, are going to be free agents at the end of the season unless they agree to extensions or accept a qualifying offer. Both of them are very good players, but neither one is a superstar. It’s hard to tell what Suzuki is thinking with the language barrier and all, but I’ve got no reason to think he isn’t happy in Chicago. There was a little grumbling from his camp last year when he was moved to DH after the trade for Kyle Tucker, but Tucker is gone now and Suzuki is penciled back in right field for 2026.

Happ has made it clear that he loves Chicago and the Cubs and would like to be a Cub for life.

So should the Cubs make a move now to sign either outfielder to an extension? Or both?

Al wrote an article earlier this winter arguing for Happ to be signed to a three-year extension. I actually think that his contract proposal was a little low on money. I think Happ can get significantly more than three years, $48 million on the open market. Jorge Polanco is a year older than Happ, is a bad defender who is moving to first base and is a similar hitter. He got two years and $40 million from the Mets on the open market.

So I’m going to propose a three-year extension for Happ for $60 million. That’s basically what he signed in his last extension. Yes, Happ is older now than he was then, but salaries have gone up since then too.

Suzuki is a better hitter than Happ but a much worse fielder. The two were born six days apart from each other, so age isn’t a factor. I think Suzuki’s defense is going to be a bigger problem as he ages, so he may be destined to be a full-time DH with only an occasional game as a corner outfielder. So I’m going to put Suzuki’s extension at a slight discount from Happ at three years and $54 million.

So would you sign either of these outfielders to an extension before Opening Day? Or both of them? The Cubs are definitely going to need two corner outfielders in 2027. Even if you think that Kevin Alcántara is ready to take over one of those spots, there really isn’t another reasonable candidate in the minor leagues to fill the other one. The free agent market for outfielders next winter isn’t great. There’s George Springer, who is going to be 37 years old and then there are guys who I’d argue aren’t as good as Happ and Suzuki—Randy Arozarena, Adolis García and Trent Grisham. That may make signing either one to an extension harder because they know that teams looking for outfielders next winter aren’t going to have a ton of options.

There is one wildcard in the Cubs minor league system that would argue against signing both is last year’s first-round pick Ethan Conrad. Conrad hasn’t made his professional debut yet because of injuries and it seems highly unlikely that he’d be ready to start the 2027 season in the majors. However, if he’s as good as the Cubs think he is, Conrad will definitely be ready by 2028, if not sooner. But can you really count on a player who hasn’t taken a professional at-bat yet?

You can make your own estimates on what the extension would go for, but make it realistic. Neither one is signing for two years and $20 million. You don’t have to give either one no-trade options, although Happ wouldn’t need one because he would become a 10-5 player some time in the 2027 season.

So what would you do? Would you lock up one of these outfielders by Opening Day? Both? Neither?

Thank you for stopping in tonight. We know you have a lot of fake online baseball and jazz-themed nightclubs to choose from, so we’re happy you chose us. Please get home safely. Stay warm out there. Don’t forget anything. Recycle any cans and bottles. Tip your waitstaff. And join us again next week for more BCB After Dark.

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