Cubs acquire All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Astros: Fantasy outlook, details on blockbuster trade

Well, that escalated quickly.

Rumors of a potential Kyle Tucker trade grew rampant during the Winter Meetings in Dallas, and now, we have fire from all of that smoke.

In exchange for Tucker, the Cubs will send the Astros a package of third baseman Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and infield prospect Cam Smith.

It’s a fascinating deal from both sides of the coin, and it offers significant real-life and fantasy implications for 2025 and beyond.

What is Kyle Tucker giving the Cubs in 2025?

One of the best hitters in baseball, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Since being drafted with the fifth pick of the 2015 MLB Draft and becoming a regular for the Astros in 2020, there haven’t been many outfielders better than Tucker. Even after struggling mightily to a .439 OPS in his first taste of action back in 2018, Tucker has hit .274/.353/.516 over his 633 MLB games with 125 homers and 94 stolen bases in his four-plus years of being a regular option. He’s made the All-Star game the last three years, and finished in the Top 20 of MVP voting from 2021-2023; finishing fifth in the race in 2023. And while he didn’t garner consideration in 2024, Tucker would have if not for missing over half the season with a shin fracture; an injury that was bizarrely underreported while the outfielder was out of action. When on the field he was enjoying his best success of his career with a .209/.408/.585 mark along with 23 homers and 11 stolen bases without being caught over 339 plate appearances in 78 games.

What does Tucker do well to earn those numbers?

There really isn’t a weakness to Tucker’s game as seen in his Baseball Savant numbers. That was especially true in 2024, but let’s go back to 2023 because that was a season where he qualified. The 27-year-old had an expected batting average of .292, and an expected slugging percentage of .530 and an expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA) of .386. All of those figures ranked in the 93rd percentile or better among qualified hitters.

Much of his success is due to his outstanding approach at the plate, as he has walked in 10.8 percent of his plate appearances with that number jumping up to a whopping 16.5 in 2024. And unlike most hitters who draw a good deal of free passes and also hit for power, Tucker does it without striking out at a high volume as well. He’s never struck out 100 times in a season, and last year he walked more often than he fanned with 56 bases on balls and 54 strikeouts.

Tucker has also been a stolen base threat throughout his career. He doesn’t have anything close to elite speed, but there are very few hitters — if any — who get better jumps on the bases than he does.

How does Tucker fit with the Cubs and their lineup?

Tucker is a fit with any lineup, but it seems like a pretty solid fit. It’s a very small sample, but he’s clobbered NL Central pitching in his career with a .397 average and 1.143 OPS against his new division, if that sort of thing interests you.Tucker will likely hit second for the Cubs — a spot he’s hit at for the majority of his career — and at this point seems likely to be sandwiched between second baseman Nico Hoerner and designated hitter — more on that in a second — Seiya Suzuki. It’s worth pointing out that both of those players have been mentioned in trade rumors — again, more on that later — but for now, that gives Tucker a quality hitter to drive in and a strong option to be driven in by as well. It’s worth noting that Wrigley Field is not the best park for left-handed power, but Tucker’s expected slugging marks suggest he can hit for pop in any park and he’ll still get 81 games away from those (less) friendly confines.

What does this mean for Suzuki, Cody Bellinger and the rest of the Cubs’ outfield?

When it was first reported that the Cubs were interested in acquiring Tucker, it seemed like an odd fit. That’s not because Tucker wouldn’t be a massive upgrade to their lineup, but rather because the outfield seemed like the one place the Cubs were set.

There have been reports that Suzuki doesn’t want to be the designated hitter, but that’s likely where he’s going to have to play with Tucker in right, Ian Happ and Pete Crow-Armstrong slated to play center. It’s possible the Cubs could deal Suzuki and get a strong return for the 30-year-old, but that seems unlikely at this point.

A far more likely trade scenario is the Cubs moving Bellinger. The former MVP opted back into a contract that will pay him $27.5 million in 2025, and he has another player option in 2026 for $26 million. While Bellinger was a competent player in 2024 with 18 homers and a .751 OPS over 130 games, that kind of contract — and no spot for him in the outfield — makes him a trade candidate to a team looking for outfield help. The Yankees were rumored to be heavily interested in a deal for Tucker. They make sense as a team that would consider Bellinger now.

What about the Astros return?

The Astros are taking a step back — at least in this writer’s opinion — but there are things to like about all three players acquired. Paredes was acquired in the deal for Christopher Morel from the Rays at the deadline, and it didn’t work out. He hit .233 while slugging .307 over 52 games, and his .633 OPS gave him an OPS+ of 82 for that timeframe.

That being said, that’s a relatively small sample, and Paredes has had success in the past. He had a .792 OPS prior to the trade — an OPS+ of 127, and in 2023 he hit 31 homers with a .250/.352/.488 slash while being worth 4.2 Wins Above Replacement according to Baseball-Reference.

And, it’s worth pointing out how good of a fit he is for Minute Maid Park.

There’s flaws in Paredes’ game, but he’s a solid option at third who won’t be a free agent until 2028.

Wesneski looked like a potential mid-rotation starter — possibly better — a couple of years ago, but injuries and inconsistent results have stagnated his development. He made a move to relief in the middle of 2024, and he pitched relatively well with a 3.67 ERA, 34/11 K/BB and 1.06 WHIP over 21 appearances. The Astros could give Wesneski a chance to be a starter again in 2025 — at the very least it seems likely they’ll stretch him out in spring to make it an option — but he’s very much a wait-and-see player in terms of fantasy for next year and beyond.

How about Cam Smith?

The Cubs selected Smith with the 14th pick of the 2024 MLB Draft out of Florida State after being one of the best hitters in college baseball that spring, and Chicago gave him a bonus over $5 million to secure his services. The right-handed hitting third baseman performed exceptionally well in his brief taste of minor-league action with a slash of .313/.396/.609 over 32 games with seven homers with his final five games coming at Double-A with Tennessee. He has a swing that suggests he can be above-average — or 55-grade on the 20-80 scouting scale — in the hit and power categories, and he has a strong throwing arm with enough athleticism to stick at the hot corner.

Smith doesn’t look like a future star, but there’s enough offensive upside to call him a Top 100 prospect with a chance to be a solid regular for a good number of years.

Does that sound like it’s enough to land Kyle Tucker?

Respectfully, no. And that’s not in insult to the three players that the Astros are acquiring. Paredes and Wesneski both should help Houston in 2025, and again, you can’t overstate just how perfect of a fit Paredes is for his new home ballpark. Add in a strong prospect like Smith and you get three players any organization would love to have.

But you know what every organization would really love to have? Kyle Tucker. Even acknowledging that there’s a chance Tucker could end up playing just one season with the Cubs — less if Chicago were to fall out of contention and they can’t work out an extension — there’s just no denying that the ability to get one of the best players in baseball without moving any of your elite hitters and none of your top five prospects is something you have to do. The Cubs are chalk-full of average to above-average players. They needed a star. Kyle Tucker is a star.

As for the fantasy angle, Paredes definitely gets a boost with his new surroundings, and while Tucker may not hit quite as many bombs at home as he did in Houston, he’s still a five-category player who should be drafted in the first round in all eligible formats.