Week 5 of the college football season brings the beginning of a new chapter, as the early season run of nonconference showdowns is all but done. Now, it’s all about marquee league matchups, as evidenced by this Saturday’s slate, which features No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia and No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State.
As the last weekend of September approaches, it’s a good time to pause and take stock of what’s been learned so far in the 2025 campaign. The season has already featured two Power Four coach firings, stunning early-season struggles from highly touted quarterbacks and some surprising results that are shaping national narratives.
Notre Dame, Clemson and SMU — all playoff teams last season — are a combined 1-7 against Power Four teams. Meanwhile, Florida State, TCU, Georgia Tech and others are looking like viable playoff contenders after beginning the year unranked.
There are 38 teams with 10-to-1 odds or better to reach the College Football Playoff, per DraftKings Sportsbook, including unexpected candidates like North Texas (+600), Kansas (+900) and Houston (+1000) that finished with losing records last season. Against that backdrop, let’s dive into the winners and losers through four weeks of the season.
Loser: Big-name quarterbacks are struggling
Many of the quarterbacks who were expected to be college football’s top stars are off to rough starts. Texas’ Arch Manning (+500), LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier (+700), Clemson’s Cade Klubnik (+800) and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (+1000) each began the season with +1000 odds or better to win the Heisman Trophy. But through Week 4, only Nussmeier (+2000) has odds of 20-to-1 or better to hoist the Heisman, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
But those four are just the start of the conversation when it comes to struggles by quarterbacks who were expected to shine. Florida’s DJ Lagway, Penn State’s Drew Allar and UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava are also falling short of expectations after being viewed as likely all-conference performers and potential All-Americans.
Under the “struggling star quarterback” umbrella, there are tiers. Manning, Nussmeier and Allar are each leading teams with legitimate national title aspirations, and they will have ample opportunity to bounce back in conference play. Sellers suffered a concussion that knocked him out of a Week 3 loss to Vanderbilt and returned with a 300-yard passing performance in a Week 4 loss to Missouri. But the Gamecocks’ CFP aspirations are fading fast amid a 2-2 start, and so is his Heisman stock.
The outlook is particularly bleak for Klubnik, Iamaleava and Lagway. Their teams are a combined 2-9, and their play is doing little to extinguish the flames of failure.
Winner: New QBs making a splash
Stepping up in place of the disappointing quarterbacks is a wave of QBs freshly minted as starters for contending teams. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, a Cal transfer, is the Heisman Trophy favorite (+800) entering Week 5 after torching Illinois for five touchdown passes in the No. 11 Hoosiers beatdown of Illinois last week. Oklahoma’s John Mateer, a Washington State transfer, has already guided the No. 7 Sooners to wins over Michigan and Auburn and is sitting at +1000 in the Heisman odds as a result.
Oregon’s Dante Moore (+1200) is riding high in his first season as the No. 6 Ducks’ starter as they head into a showdown with No. 3 Penn State. Miami’s Carson Beck (+1300) has helped Miami soar to No. 2 in the AP poll after transferring from Georgia. His replacement at Georgia, Gunner Stockton (+1400), is proving to be a perfectly suitable option for the No. 5 Bulldogs after leading a dramatic win at Tennessee in Week 3.
Who is Fernando Mendoza? Indiana QB emerges as Heisman Trophy favorite amid breakout early in 2025 season
John Talty
Loser: The old guard
College football’s longest–tenured coaches are spinning their wheels. Most stunning is that Clemson is off to a 1-3 start for the first time under 17th-year coach Dabo Swinney after beginning the season ranked No. 4 in the AP poll. But Swinney isn’t the only struggling coach from the old guard. Oklahoma State’s 1-2 start under 21st-year coach Mike Gundy includes a 69-3 loss to Oregon and an embarrassing 19-12 home loss to Tulsa. The Cowboys have dropped 11 straight games against FBS opposition, placing Gundy’s future in serious doubt.
Iowa is off to a 3-1 start under 27th-year coach Kirk Ferentz, but offensive issues remain a concern, and a 16-13 loss to rival Iowa State did little to inspire faith in the Hawkeyes’ direction. Kentucky is 2-1 under 13th-year coach Mark Stoops but has shown no offensive aptitude and faces an uphill climb to bowl eligibility.
Utah is 3-1, but its hopes of a CFP bid hit a significant early roadblock in Week 4 with a 34-10 home loss to Texas Tech. If 21st-year coach Kyle Whittingham can overcome that loss and get the Utes into the Big 12 title game, it might be his best coaching job yet.
Winner: Head coaching candidates around the country
Two Power Four jobs are already open, and there are plenty more vacancies coming. That’s good news for successful Group of Five coaches, high-caliber coordinators and others in the business who may be looking to make a leap. UCLA and Virginia Tech were the first to the market, but they won’t be the most attractive jobs coming open this cycle.
Florida, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State and Arkansas are off to tough starts that could lead to coaching changes. Several other jobs are being closely watched for signs of movement as we head into what’s expected to be a busy coaching carousel.
North Carolina’s Bill Belichick experiment is off to a dismal start, as the Tar Heels were outscored 82-23 in losses against TCU and UCF over the season’s first four weeks. The good news is that UNC has the most simple ACC slate imaginable, as it misses Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Louisville.
But barring significant improvement, the university’s bold gamble on a 73-year old NFL legend will go down as a horrific act of self-sabotage. There were no signs in the season’s first month that the glimmer of Belichick’s six Super Bowl rings will do anything except cast a shadow over the program’s ambitions of leveling up.
Winner: ACC establishes a strong top tier
No. 4 Miami, No. 8 Florida State and No. 16 Georgia Tech have established a strong top tier for the ACC amid unbeaten starts. Miami’s wins over Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida made the Hurricanes a darling of the season’s first month. Similarly, FSU’s stunning upset of Alabama in Week 1 marked a “we’re back” moment for a proud program that won just two games last season. The Yellow Jackets’ road wins over Colorado and Clemson weren’t quite as seismic, but they indicated that coach Brent Key’s club has the fortitude necessary to compete for a CFP bid. That’s the good news for the ACC.
Loser: The rest of the ACC struggles
While the top of the ACC looks strong, the rest of it is reeling. The league’s two College Football Playoff teams from last season — Clemson and SMU — are off to a combined 0-5 start against Power Four opposition. As a whole, the league is just 5-13 in nonconference games against other Power Four leagues and Notre Dame, thanks largely to a 1-7 record in head-to-head competition with the Big 12. If the Hurricanes or Seminoles hit roadblocks in conference play, expect them to be heavily penalized by AP voters and the CFP selection committee. Most losses against ACC foes will be categorized as bad losses. The pool of viable CFP candidates from the ACC is looking miniscule, and it’s not even October.
Winner: American Conference
The American is now the top dog among Group of Six leagues after five different AAC teams combined for six wins over Power Four opposition during Weeks 0-4. While the Mountain West’s 4-9 mark isn’t far behind the American’s 6-11 record against Power Four opposition, there was more substance to what the American accomplished.
Tulane took down a Duke team that won nine games last season, Army beat a Kansas State squad that was expected to compete for the Big 12 title, and South Florida upset a Florida team that began the year ranked No. 15. Week 4 put the capper on a strong start for the conference, as Memphis’ 32-31 win over Arkansas and Tulsa’s 19-12 victory at Oklahoma State solidified the American atop the G6 pecking order.
Consequently, it appears likely that the American champion will find itself in the CFP field. Who that champion will be remains a fascinating question. South Florida, Memphis and Tulane each have odds of between +350 and +450 to reach the CFP, but that’s just the start of the list for a league that appears to have quality depth in its title-contending tier.
Winner: Cinderella’s part 2
Vanderbilt and Indiana made for wonderful Cinderella stories in 2024, and they are back for more. The Commodores stunned Alabama last season and used a Birmingham Bowl victory over Georgia Tech to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2013. With star quarterback Diego Pavia earning additional eligibility from a court decision, the No. 18 Commodores are in the midst of an encore that already features road victories over Virginia Tech and South Carolina.
Indiana stunned college football last season by reaching the CFP in coach Curt Cignetti’s first season. If you thought it was a cutesy fluke enabled by a favorable schedule, think again. The Hoosiers showed in a 63-10 win over Illinois last week that they are here to stay. In fact, they may be even better now with Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza — the current Heisman Trophy favorite — directing the show at quarterback.
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