College Football Playoff Traffic Report: Where every Power Four team stands in Week 5

Heading into a massive Week 5 slate, some teams have the chance to make a statement, while others face must-win games to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. The first month has already begun to separate contenders from pretenders, and the margin for error is shrinking fast.

This second edition of the College Football Playoff Traffic Report offers an updated look at where each Power Four team stands on the road to the playoff, organized into tiers:

🚀 On cruise control
🟢 In the driver’s seat
🟡 Bumper-to-bumper
🔴 Sitting on the shoulder
⛔ Out of the race

The report breaks down which 30 teams are best positioned to reach the CFP, which squads are jockeying for position and which are starting to run out of margin for error or are effectively eliminated.

Let’s take a look at the road to the CFP ahead of Week 5.

🚀 On cruise control

Look elite, have a clear path and have a lot of margin for error.

Ohio State (3-0): The Buckeyes look every bit the part of a threat to win back-to-back national championships. With a win over preseason No. 1 Texas in its back pocket, Ohio State must now navigate the grind against Big Ten contenders, starting with their first road trip to Washington since 2007.

Georgia (3-0): Leaving Neyland Stadium with a 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 was a major gut check for the Bulldogs. So long as Georgia can avoid slip-ups against lesser SEC opponents and maintain its 33-game winning streak at home, it should remain firmly in the playoff and conference title hunt.

Oregon (4-0): How will the Ducks handle their first hostile road environment of the season when they travel to Happy Valley in Week 5? Oregon cruised through its nonconference slate, but a rematch of last year’s Big Ten title game against No. 3 Penn State looms as a true measuring stick. Oregon is a 3.5-point underdog, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Penn State (3-0): The Nittany Lions are in a similar position as No. 6 Oregon where Week 5 will define whether they’re a national title contender or simply a good team in a difficult Big Ten. A loss shrinks the margin for error the rest of the way, but it’s certainly not a season-killer with chances for redemption still on the schedule.

Miami (4-0): The path through the ACC looks smoother by the week for the Hurricanes — they won’t leave the Sunshine State until November. Week 6 brings a trip to Tallahassee, where the winner against No. 8 Florida State will take a commanding step toward the ACC title game, but the loser still has a path to recover and stay in the hunt.

🟢 In the driver’s seat

Control their path, but still vulnerable — one or two unexpected hiccups could matter.

Oklahoma (4-0): The Sooners are one of the few Power Four teams with two quality wins already, knocking off Auburn and Michigan in September. That strong start is critical, because the toughest stretch of their SEC schedule doesn’t arrive until late October. How they handle that grind will decide whether this 4-0 launch turns into something bigger for Brent Venables and Co.

Texas (3-1): Arch Manning doesn’t need to be great. With the way this experienced Longhorns defense looks, he just needs to manage the game and avoid mistakes. Manning accounted for five total touchdowns in a 55-0 shutout win against Sam Houston in Week 4, perhaps giving him a much-needed confidence boost heading into a bye.

Ole Miss (4-0): The Rebels have the benefit of an easier SEC slate, but will likely need to pull off a top-10 win against either No. 5 Georgia, No. 4 LSU or No. 7 Oklahoma to validate their playoff case. For all the offseason hype quarterback Austin Simmons got, few expected it to be Division II Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss who would emerge as one of the SEC’s early-season breakout passers.

Texas A&M (3-0): With Florida and South Carolina both looking shaky early, the path to not only a College Football Playoff breakthrough but also a legitimate shot at a spot in the SEC Championship Game appears more and more reasonable. Going into South Bend and leaving with a dramatic win against then–top-10 Notre Dame showed the Aggies have the toughness to stay in the mix.

Indiana (4-0): Are the Hoosiers even better than last year’s playoff team? Curt Cignetti continues to push all the right buttons with Indiana fresh off a 53-point demolition of Illinois in Week 4. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza is building a legitimate Heisman Trophy case with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions through four games. That dominant win over the Fighting Illini sets up Indiana as a serious contender for a return trip to the CFP.

Texas Tech (4-0): The Red Raiders are seeing major returns on their heavy NIL investment in this 2025 roster. They passed their first real test with a stingy defensive performance on the road at Utah in Week 4, silencing doubts about toughness away from Lubbock. With the Big 12 possibly shaping up as a one-bid league for the CFP again, Texas Tech still has little margin for error — getting to the conference title game with a clean resume is paramount.

LSU (4-0): Just how good is LSU? That Week 1 win at Clemson doesn’t look quite as imposing after the Tigers’ struggles, and a 10-point home win over Florida despite forcing five turnovers honestly left more questions than answers. Maybe the blowout of FCS Southeastern Louisiana was the reset LSU’s offense needed. The real verdict could come in Week 5 at No. 13 Ole Miss.

Florida State (3-0): The Seminoles enter Week 5 in a classic trap-game spot with a road trip to Virginia. It’s the kind of test where focus matters, especially with a top-10 showdown against No. 2 Miami looming in Week 6. Florida State looked sharp in the opener win against Alabama, but haven’t been tested since.

Alabama (2-1): The Crimson Tide may not be the powerhouse of old under Kalen DeBoer, but they remain the hunted. Alabama faces a brutal stretch, with six of the next seven games against ranked opponents and the lone non-ranked matchup at South Carolina. The SEC opener against No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night is a must-win to avoid entering October with two losses for the first time since 2007.

Tennessee (3-1): The Volunteers would’ve liked a win over Georgia in Week 3, but an overtime loss doesn’t derail their playoff hopes. It does, however, add extra stakes for the Third Saturday in October trip to No. 17 Alabama and the home showdown with No. 7 Oklahoma.

USC (4-0): The Trojans are 4-0 for the third time in four years under Lincoln Riley, but the schedule is about to get tough, with each of the next three games against ranked opponents: at No. 23 Illinois, No. 19 Michigan and at No. 22 Notre Dame. Only after that stretch will USC travel to No. 6 Oregon in November, a game that could decide their CFP hopes depending how it emerges.

Michigan (3-1): By no means are the Wolverines a national title contender, but the athleticism of five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood and a manageable Big Ten slate gives them a clear path to return to the CFP. As of now, No. 21 USC and No. 1 Ohio State are the only ranked opponents left on Michigan’s schedule.

Georgia Tech (4-0): Get on the bandwagon now before it’s too late. Brent Key has the Yellow Jackets trending toward a breakthrough. Georgia Tech avoids Miami and Florida State on the schedule, giving them a clear path to quietly sneak into the ACC title game, much like SMU’s surprise run to the CFP last season.

Missouri (4-0): If the Tigers are going to be viewed as a legitimate CFP contender, Eli Drinkwitz will need to show growth after going 0-3 against ranked SEC opponents last season. A win over No. 17 Alabama in Week 7 could do just that, but there are several more hurdles along the way still.

🟡 Bumper-to-bumper

Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others.

Notre Dame (1-2): The Fighting Irish are already reeling from two heartbreaking losses by a combined four points to Miami and Texas A&M — both of which are now ranked in the top 10. The good news: Notre Dame should be favored in its remaining nine games with the toughest tests already behind them.

Vanderbilt (4-0): How long can Diego Pavia and the Commodores keep this run alive? A win against Utah State in Week 5 would give Vanderbilt its first 5-0 start since 2008. That’s impressive, but five games against ranked SEC opponents still loom large, making the path forward treacherous.

TCU (3-0): Quarterback Josh Hoover may be one of the nation’s best passers, and the Horned Frogs have a relatively open path. Still, the Big 12’s unpredictability means TCU can’t take anything for granted, with ranked foes No. 14 Iowa State and No. 25 BYU standing in the way.

BYU (3-0): More will be revealed when the Cougars open Big 12 play at Colorado in Week 5. BYU’s defense has looked stout, but hasn’t faced a true test yet. A challenging three-game stretch awaits later in the season, with matchups against No. 14 Iowa State, No. 12 Texas Tech and No. 24 TCU likely to define their CFP hopes.

Iowa State (4-0): The Cyclones are building a resume reminiscent of last year’s 7-0 start before back-to-back losses derailed their Big 12 title and CFP hopes. If Iowa State can navigate the early slate unscathed, a pivotal four-game stretch looms: No. 25 BYU, Arizona State, at No. 24 TCU and Kansas.

Washington (3-0): The Huskies have some defensive questions, but quarterback Demond Williams Jr. is leading one of the nation’s top-scoring offenses entering Week 5. Washington has a prime opportunity to make a statement when reigning national champion and No. 1 Ohio State visits Husky Stadium, where the Huskies have won 22 consecutive games.

Arizona State (3-1): A game-winning field goal as time expired against Baylor in Week 4 potentially saved the Sun Devils’ season. A loss would have put Arizona State at 2-2 overall and behind in Big 12 contention. Instead, they head into a pivotal showdown with No. 24 TCU in Week 5 with a chance to seize momentum.

Louisville (3-0): Jeff Brohm has the Cardinals quietly in the ACC mix while much of the attention focuses on Miami, Florida State and the fall of Clemson. There’s a real chance for Louisville to make a statement with a tough visit to Miami in Week 8.

Kansas (3-1): Add the Jayhawks to the mix of Big 12 contenders that could rise as the season progresses. So long as Jalon Daniels stays healthy, Kansas has a path to compete for the conference title and a CFP spot.

Auburn (3-1): The Tigers opened a four-game stretch against ranked opponents by squandering a fourth-quarter lead at Oklahoma. The margin for error has shrunk considerably for Hugh Freeze and Auburn, especially with a trip to No. 9 Texas A&M looming in Week 5.

Illinois (3-1): The 63-10 blowout at Indiana in Week 4 was likely a CFP elimination game. That said, it’s not time to rule out the Fighting Illini entirely. Suddenly, the Week 5 matchup against No. 21 USC becomes a must-win if Illinois hopes to salvage any major season momentum.

🔴 Sitting on the shoulder

Technically alive, but path is long, risky or dependent entirely on outside chaos.

ACC: California, Duke, NC State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Syracuse, Virginia

Big 12: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, Utah

Big Ten: Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Rutgers

SEC: Mississippi State

⛔ Out of the race

Effectively eliminated or realistically cannot make the playoff.

ACC: Boston College, Clemson, North Carolina, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 12: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

Big Ten: Northwestern, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

SEC: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina