College Football Playoff predictions: Teams poised to make debut appearance in 2025

Last year’s College Football Playoff expansion heightened the late-season drama as more teams than ever fought for a chance to compete for a national championship. Half the field made playoff debuts when they participated in the inaugural 12-team bracket, and another batch of first-timers could be on the way in 2025. All season, the nation will be looking for “the next Indiana” or another breakout program to elevate itself onto the sport’s biggest stage.

The candidates to do so are aplenty. With the SEC and Big Ten, in particular, establishing themselves as multi-bid leagues, all it takes to get into the dance is a finish in the top quadrant of the conference standings. That is undoubtedly easier said than done, but a few schools laid the blueprint last fall.

Some of the bubble teams from last season’s playoff race should be back in the running. Perhaps South Carolina will move onto the right side of the cut line, for example. Breakthrough contenders go beyond those who ranked highly in 2024, though. And in the Big 12, half the conference should have belief in its ability to rise to the top and clinch a playoff berth.

Below are the top contenders to make their College Football Playoff debuts in 2025.

Miami Hurricanes

The propensity to surrender explosive plays was the primary factor that kept Miami out of last year’s playoff, but transfer portal pickups and a switch in coordinators indicate a brighter future is on the horizon for the Hurricanes defense. Suddenly, the bigger questions reside on the offensive side of the ball. Prized quarterback pickup Carson Beck is cleared to throw and continues to progress on his way back from elbow surgery, and if he rekindles the success he found two years ago, the aerial attack will again be playoff-caliber.

Returning production is paramount in building a prosperous program, and Illinois is about as well-off as any. Luke Altmyer is back as a top-flight quarterback not just in the Big Ten but also on the national stage. Gabe Jacas headlines a stacked defense with his veteran pass-rushing abilities. Xavier Scott snagged four interceptions last season and should flourish as a draft prospect in his senior year. Never have the Fighting Illini logged consecutive 10-win seasons, but on the heels of a historically successful fourth year of the Bret Bielema era, another massively successful season stands within reach. 

South Carolina Gamecocks

Shane Beamer earned himself oodles of goodwill in a pivotal 2024 season, and his playoff case was perhaps the strongest of any coach that stood on the wrong side of last year’s bubble. The follow-up campaign will be a test of South Carolina’s depth after it lost five standouts to the draft, but with LaNorris Sellers poised to take another step as a star quarterback and Dylan Stewart offering much-needed continuity on the defensive front, the Gamecocks feature CFP upside. The margin for error will be razor thin, though, in the SEC.

Still undecided, SEC holds the key to College Football Playoff as 5+11 format gains steam

Brandon Marcello

Florida sure looked like it turned a corner last November. Consecutive wins over ranked opponents, a four-game winning streak to close the year and a freshman-year breakout from DJ Lagway could not have come at a more opportune time for Billy Napier. If the last month of 2024 was a harbinger of success to come, the Gators coach could go from the hot seat to the playoff in just over a calendar year. It does not take much imagination to envision a breakthrough season, especially since Lagway has a talented receiving corps and one of college football’s strongest offensive lines at his side.

The ACC only narrowly missed out on becoming a three-bid league last season. If it has three teams in the playoff mix in 2025, Louisville is a strong pick to be in that group with Miami and Clemson. Jeff Brohm’s offensive acumen made Louisville an ideal landing spot for promising transfer quarterback Miller Moss, who showed flashes of excellence in an up-and-down debut starting season at USC. He needs to cut down on his turnovers for the Cardinals to take the next step, but at the very least, there are enough pieces on this roster for Brohm to post another nine- or 10-win record.

Texas A&M controlled its own SEC title and playoff destiny deep into last season but ran out of gas in the final month. If the Aggies prevent a November letdown in 2025, it will be because Marcel Reed excels under center with a reconstructed wideout room that features elite transfer KC Concepcion and rising former five-star recruit Terry Bussey. Expectations have regularly been greater than reality at Texas A&M, and this could be the time to buy low before Mike Elko sparks the elusive breakthrough.

2025 College Football Playoff projections: How 12-team bracket shakes out as leaders approve straight seeding

Brad Crawford

Lane Kiffin’s work in the transfer portal helped him take Ole Miss to essentially unprecedented levels. His portal-heavy approach carries more risk this year, but he earned the benefit of the doubt when he led the Rebels to the playoff bubble with a squad built largely upon veteran newcomers. Early returns on first-year starting quarterback Austin Simmons have been great, so if he keeps the offense humming and the talent acquisition efforts pay dividends again, Ole Miss should expect to be right back within striking distance.

Auburn pushed a lot of chips forward this offseason. The most notable investment came at the quarterback spot where Hugh Freeze, at long last, dipped into the portal. Jackson Arnold is a prime candidate for a post-hype explosion considering injuries ravaged his supporting cast last year at Oklahoma and that the Tigers set him up for success with loads of receiving talent. It is incumbent upon Auburn to get significantly better play from its signal-caller after a couple of rough years to open a largely disappointing Freeze era. If Arnold delivers, this team is a dark-horse playoff contender.

Big 12 logjam survivor

For brevity’s sake, the Big 12’s first-time playoff contenders have to fall under one umbrella. If any team outside of Arizona State clinches a spot in the field, it will be a debut participant. The Sun Devils are undoubtedly in the mix to repeat as conference champions, but the delta between the best and the worst teams in this league is so minuscule that they could wind up halfway down the standings in an instant. More than half of the Big 12 has +1200 odds to win the league (per Caesars Sportsbook) and secure the CFP auto bid that all but certainly comes with it. Texas Tech, Kansas State, Utah, Baylor, BYU and Iowa State could go dancing to nobody’s surprise, and the conference proved last season that even a projected bottom-dweller can rise to the top.

Five Big Ten games that will shape College Football Playoff race before October begins

Tom Fornelli

Group of Five standout

It is quite likely that a Group of Five squad makes its playoff debut for the second straight year. Boise State is the only team at that level with CFP experience and should be just fine even without Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. But Navy is primed to make a push of its own with electric quarterback Blake Horvath and his 30 total touchdowns returning for a senior year. UNLV also has juice with a proven winner in Dan Mullen at the helm and a slew of incoming Power Four transfers. Tulane, Memphis and UTSA will all be in the American race, too. Expect the race for the fifth automatic bid to come down to the wire.