In an article dedicated to overreactions, it seems odd to preach patience. But the overwhelming sentiment after the first round of the new-look College Football Playoff is that 12 teams is too many.
If anything, this past weekend’s slate expanded the current gulf between the haves and the have-nots. All of the expected winners — traditional college football heavyweights Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State — all cruised to victory against overmatched opponents.
None of the four first-round games were ever really in doubt. All were decided by at least two possessions. It was a rough debut for the ballyhooed format and, naturally, it sparked much derision on social media.
People were quick to bemoan playoff expansion. That’s the reality we live in, though, and if anything, more teams will be added before the playoff ever has a chance to contract. And, honestly, it’s always been like this.
The four-team College Football Playoff had 20 so-called first-round games. They were decided by an average of 17 points per game.
At least the 12-team playoff provides plenty of tertiary benefits outside of the games. The 2024 regular season was, without a doubt, one of the greatest years in this sport’s history. A big reason for that is the fact that more teams actually had something to play for as the year wore on. An expanded field means more opportunity, even if that opportunity leads to a first-round exit in blowout fashion.
Plus, home playoff games are an incredible addition. All of the atmospheres were electric and it’s an experience unlike anything college football has ever seen.
There’s still three rounds for the 12-team playoff to redeem itself. Quarterfinal matchups like Notre Dame and Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and Ohio State versus Oregon in the Rose Bowl should deliver plenty of memorable moments.
The 12-team playoff isn’t perfect, and the selection process could probably use some refinement. But it’s what we have, and the positives far outweigh the negatives — especially when provided with such a small sample size.
The selection committee got it right
The SEC, and its fans, can politic as much as it wants. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin could make 1,000 angry social media posts shouting into the void. But it doesn’t change the fact that the College Football Playoff selection committee got everything right this year.
Once the actual College Football Playoff games roll around, people like to use the gift of hindsight to retroactively deem certain teams unworthy. Indiana lost 27-17? SMU lost 38-10? Get them out of here.
But that doesn’t change the fact that Indiana and SMU earned their spots well before Selection Sunday. Each won 11 games while playing in a Power Four conference. And, for all the SEC’s bellyaching, the only team that looked completely out of its depth was Tennessee. The Vols never had a hope against Ohio State and lost from the moment they stepped on the field.
You really want to put 9-3 teams like Alabama, which lost to Tennessee and a 6-6 Oklahoma squad, and Ole Miss, which lost twice to unranked teams as a double-digit favorite (including a Kentucky team that finished 4-8), in the field? We’re going to pretend that they would fare better than teams that actually won a meaningful amount of games on the schedules they were given?
The selection committee has had its fair share of missteps throughout its relatively short history. That’s simply not the case this year.
The teams that truly deserved to make it did.
Steve Sarkisian is going to overthink his way out of the playoff
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has a nagging tendency to “get cute.” That means that when something’s really working, he’ll go away from it to try and get one over on the opposing team. Or he’ll call trick plays in situations where they’re really not necessary.
For instance, in Texas’ first-round win over Clemson, the Longhorns were moving the ball at will by running between the tackles. Well, in the third quarter when Clemson scored a touchdown to cut Texas’ lead to 31-17, Sarkisian decided to stray away from that strategy. Texas opened the ensuing drive with two passes — a 16-yard completion to tight end Gunnar Helm and then a pass interference call on Clemson — before it was forced into an eventual fourth-and-2.
Instead of running it, quarterback Quinn Ewers dropped back to pass and missed wide receiver Matthew Golden on an underneath route. Clemson took that gift and scored another touchdown to cut the deficit to 31-24.
Texas answered by scoring a decisive touchdown courtesy of a 77-yard run from running back Jaydon Blue two plays later. Later in the game, Texas tried to convert a fourth-and-1 to officially salt things away. Again, instead of handing the ball to the running backs that averaged 8.8 yards per carry, Sarkisian put backup quarterback Arch Manning into the game to run a sneak. Manning proceeded to fumble the snap from a backup center, who was in the game due to an injury to starting center Jake Majors, and lost three yards.
Texas had all but won the game at that point, and Clemson failed to score, but that’s the kind of overthinking that will hurt Texas as it moves deeper into the playoff. Otherwise, Texas is a national title contender.
Clemson is close, but it needs major change
And no, this isn’t about the transfer portal. Dabo Swinney has shown that he’s more willing to work the portal this year and the Tigers have already taken two transfer commitments.
But he does need to do the uncomfortable thing and move on from longtime collaborator Wes Goodwin, who took over as defensive coordinator in 2022 after Brent Venables left to take the Oklahoma coaching job. Swinney hasn’t had to fire a defensive coordinator in over a decade. But now is the time if the Tigers want to ascend back to truly elite status.
It was the defense that held the Tigers back against the Longhorns. As outlined above, Texas’ running backs ran wild against Clemson’s defensive front. Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue combined for 256 yards and four touchdowns on just 29 carries. It’s not like Texas did anything unusual, either. A lot of times the Longhorns just lined up and moved Clemson’s defense off of the ball.
That’s not normal for Clemson, which has regularly produced NFL-caliber defensive linemen under Swinney. That College Football Playoff performance wasn’t an outlier, either — this is the worst rush defense that Clemson has had since 2013. That’s unacceptable for a team that, in most years, can rely on a smothering defense.
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