As we wrap up the month of June and prepare for the true beginning of college football’s preseason in July, now is the time to put in the work and get ahead of the masses when it comes to our expectations for the upcoming season. Soon there will be magazines to consume and media days will take over the conversation with quotes, stories and more from the coaches and players in advance of fall camp.
In recent weeks, oddsmakers have started posting their odds to make the College Football Playoff in 2025-26. Unlike national title odds — which are often released as soon as the previous season ends and gradually shift throughout the offseason — these numbers kick off the conversation around how many teams enter the upcoming season with realistic CFP aspirations.
But, we’re not looking for teams that seem realistic right now. We’re looking for long shots — the scratch-off lottery tickets that could pay off if the unlikely path to a playoff berth opens up during the regular season.
Indiana, SMU and Arizona State were nowhere near realistic CFP contenders at this point last year. Yet that group of long shots made up a quarter of the field.
This year’s group of long shots doesn’t feature the near-off-the-board odds Indiana and Arizona State carried last offseason. But each team is still outside the top 35 in the respective sportsbook referenced for these picks.
We’ll start with the shortest (best) odds and work down to the longest, focusing on what it would take to turn a flier of a bet into a winning ticket.
Odds to make CFP: +800, via DraftKings
Some expect the Tigers to regress after losing multiple top-40 NFL Draft picks and undergoing a quarterback change following Brady Cook’s departure. But this team still has elite talent on the offensive line — even after the loss of Armand Membou — and the defense could be one of the SEC’s best.
Missouri fans might expect a reset year after back-to-back 10-win seasons, but coach Eli Drinkwitz has done a strong job acquiring talent in the modern era — enough to fuel expectations for sustained success. The schedule also includes several breaks that could aid a playoff push.
Missouri doesn’t have a road game until Oct. 18 and avoids Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss in SEC play. If the Tigers can beat Alabama at home on Oct. 11 and finish no worse than 10-2, they’ll be firmly in the CFP conversation.
Odds to make CFP:: +900, via DraftKings
This is a vote of confidence in quarterback Dylan Raiola taking a step forward — and in how the entire offense can benefit from a full offseason with Dana Holgorsen as offensive coordinator. Holgorsen joined the program midseason last year as a consultant and was promoted to OC before the end of the year. And while Nebraska scored a season-high 44 points against Wisconsin on Nov. 23, it’s hard to tie any success or failure directly to the coaching change.
Raiola is a top-tier talent, and Holgorsen has a proven track record as an offensive mind. If coach Matt Rhule lets that duo operate freely, Nebraska could field an offensive attack capable of stressing Big Ten defenses.
Buying stock in Nebraska requires more than Year 2 Raiola hype, though. The defense must account for the loss of key players and coaches — enough turnover that the Cornhuskers’ identity may shift from the lines of scrimmage to the perimeter.
A high-flying Nebraska team could win 10 games, especially with no Ohio State or Oregon on the schedule and both Michigan and USC coming to Lincoln.
Odds to make CFP: +1040, via FanDuel
Compare Washington to Nebraska and you’ll see two different paths to the CFP. One involves stacking 10 or 11 regular-season wins against a schedule that lacks projected top-10 or top-15 opponents. The other takes advantage of opportunities to knock off ranked teams and vault into the CFP conversation.
Washington has the latter route. The Huskies get Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon at home. If they can win two of those games, they’ll have the kind of quality victories that hold weight in at-large debates.
As for the team itself, quarterback Demond Williams could be special. Denzel Boston might be one of the top wide receivers in the country. And the addition of Ryan Walters as defensive coordinator could pay off for a unit that doesn’t need a full reboot like it did last season.
Odds to make CFP: +1200, via FanDuel
Expectations heading into last season had Kansas among the many contenders for the Big 12 title — and, by extension, a dark horse for the CFP. But not only did the Jayhawks fail to contend for the conference in 2024, they didn’t even qualify for the postseason, finishing 5-7.
A closer look reveals a season of chaos, with razor-thin margins separating a Big 12 title run from a bowl-less December. Kansas became the first FBS team in history to beat three straight AP Top 25 opponents while holding a losing record in all three games, knocking off Iowa State, BYU and Colorado in November. Those three tied for first place in the Big 12, and the fourth co-champion — eventual title winner Arizona State — beat Kansas by just four points in Tempe in early October.
Now quarterback Jalon Daniels returns for his sixth year of college football, and it’s his second season working with offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. If that duo builds stronger chemistry and the Jayhawks can flip their 1-5 record in one-score games, this team could be a 10-win contender in the Big 12 in 2025.
Odds to make CFP: +1800, via FanDuel
Dan Mullen has won 62.8% of his games across 13 seasons as a head coach at Mississippi State and Florida, finishing ranked six times and reaching a bowl game nearly every year. If you’re ranking Mountain West coaches, he’s at the center of the debate for No. 1. Now at UNLV, he takes over a program that has embraced championship-level investment — with 20 wins over the last two seasons under Barry Odom.
The path for the Rebels is straightforward: win the Mountain West and finish as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions to secure a CFP berth. If UNLV is +650 to win the league, why not take a swing at an even bigger payout on a playoff appearance?
The Rebels landed Alex Orji and Anthony Colandrea from the transfer portal, and with Mullen’s proven track record of developing quarterbacks, it’s easy to envision either playing at a level that fuels not only wins, but national buzz. The nonconference schedule includes a high-profile opportunity in Week 2, when UCLA visits Las Vegas. If UNLV can take down the Bruins, it will enter Mountain West play with legitimate CFP aspirations.
Pitt
Odds to make CFP: +1800, via FanDuel
Pitt started last season 7-0 before a six-game losing streak that ended with a bowl loss to Toledo. So if you’re hesitant to buy in based on how things finished, that’s understandable. But it would be a mistake to overlook Pat Narduzzi’s group, especially considering how much it returns from a team that had eventual ACC champion Clemson on the ropes in mid-November.
Year 1 of Kade Bell’s offense got off to a fast start, but injuries — particularly up front — made it harder to sustain the same pace and explosiveness as the season wore on. Star running back Desmond Reid returns after a standout campaign and has suggested Pitt’s attack will be even faster and more productive in Year 2 of Bell’s system. If the Panthers can stay healthy, they should be in position to maintain success late into the year.
As for the schedule, one game will likely define Pitt’s at-large CFP hopes: a Nov. 15 home date against Notre Dame. Without a win there, the Panthers would probably need to win the ACC to claim an automatic bid — and that’s not out of the question. Pitt avoids both Clemson and SMU in the regular season and gets its toughest conference opponents — Louisville and Miami — at home.
Odds to make CFP: +6500, via FanDuel
At this point, we’re entering the range of odds that resemble last season’s wild long shots like Indiana and Arizona State — teams with seemingly improbable paths. Maryland fits that mold in 2025, but there are reasons to keep an eye on the Terrapins.
They have two intriguing quarterback options in UCLA transfer Justyn Martin and four-star freshman Malik Washington, and coach Mike Locksley made notable staff changes this offseason. Pep Hamilton, a respected offensive mind with NFL experience, takes over as offensive coordinator, while longtime NFL assistant Ted Monachino will lead the defense.
If those pro influences can elevate a roster that’s always had a respectable talent floor, Maryland could feast on a favorable schedule after last year’s disappointing 4-8 campaign. The Terps avoid Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon in Big Ten play and get Michigan, Nebraska, Washington and Indiana at home.
It’s understandable why last season’s struggles have oddsmakers placing Maryland near the bottom of the league, but all the turnover could set the stage for one of the biggest turnaround stories in the country.
Read the full article here
