With only two matchups featuring ranked teams on both sides, college football fans may have brushed off the Week 6 schedule as one of the more tame days in the sport. It’s in these moments where the sport unleashes chaos, and once again, it did not disappoint.
The biggest result of the day came at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., where an unranked UCLA squad seemingly destined for a 0-12 season pulled off the ultimate stunner in a 42-37 win over then-No. 7 Penn State. The Nittany Lions had no answer for Nico Iamaleava, who had five total touchdowns in the victory. The Bruins made a late stop to secure the win, potentially sending Penn State out of the top 25 and the College Football Playoff.
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James Franklin’s team wasn’t alone when it came to upsets. The then-No. 9 Texas Longhorns entered Gainesville off a bye week looking to cement themselves as a true title contender. Instead, Arch Manning threw two interceptions and struggled to move the ball against Florida’s defense in a 29-21 Gators win. The Longhorns aren’t in quite the same position as Penn State since this is only their first conference loss. However, they have not looked anything like the team from a year ago, and Manning is looking more like an overhyped prospect due to his relatives rather than a star in the making.
Iowa State is also going to fall in the rankings after losing to Cincinnati, although this technically wasn’t a big upset as the Bearcats were slight favorites at top sportsbooks. The Cyclones will fall out of the CFP conversation at the moment but still control their own destiny in the Big 12.
Here’s a look at the latest odds for teams to make the College Football Playoff at FanDuel Sportsbook. We’ll also come up with what a hypothetical 12-team bracket would look like based on the results through Week 6 and future projections.
College Football Playoff odds (via FanDuel)
- Ohio State (-3500 to make, +1200 to miss)
- Oregon (-1600 to make, +820 to miss)
- Indiana (-144 to make, +118 to miss)
- Miami (-3000 to make, +1120 to miss)
- Georgia Tech (+270 to make, -355 to miss)
- Virginia (+820 to make, -1600 to miss)
- Georgia (-188 to make, +152 to miss)
- Ole Miss (-194 to make, +156 to miss)
- LSU (+198 to make, -250 to miss)
- Texas A&M (-188 to make, +152 to miss)
- Alabama (-290 to make, +255 to miss)
- Missouri (+172 to make, -215 to miss)
- Texas Tech (-184 to make, +148 to miss)
- Arizona State (+570 to make, -900 to miss)
- Iowa State (+1300 to make, -4500 to miss)
- Memphis (OTB, +240 to win the American)
Texas A&M and Virginia were in danger of going down as well in Week 6, but the Aggies managed to pull away from Mississippi State in the second half and win 31-9. The Cavaliers went to overtime again, taking down Louisville on the road 30-27. Virginia is now 5-1 and, more importantly, is undefeated in ACC play.
The Big 12 was going to be one of the most open conferences entering the season according to oddsmakers, and that remains the case through six weeks. Texas Tech was fortunate to get star quarterback Behren Morton back, and he led the Red Raiders to a 35-11 win over Houston to keep them undefeated. Texas Tech will play Arizona State in two weeks in a contest that will be pivotal to decide who goes to the Big 12 title game. Iowa State and Arizona State will also play each other.
The SEC and Big Ten have pushed for an expanded playoff to get more representation for their conferences, but it’s going to be hard to justify these thoughts by the end of the season. It’s quite possible we see a 3-loss SEC team in Atlanta for the conference championship game. The Longhorns are the most likely candidate for that designation as they have one non-conference loss, but they’re going to have to navigate some tough games starting next week at the Cotton Bowl against a ranked Oklahoma squad. Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana have taken care of business, but only two of those teams will play in the Big Ten title game. If Penn State beats Indiana and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions would jump right back into the Big Ten championship and CFP conversation. Things could become even muddier next week with Oregon facing Indiana and Ohio State meeting Illinois.
Alabama erased some of the bitter memories from last year’s debacle in a 30-14 win over Vanderbilt, but the Crimson Tide don’t have much time to celebrate. They’ll head to Columbia to take on the Missouri Tigers, who are undefeated and see themselves as CFP contenders despite some turnover on the roster at key positions. Georgia will also be on the road to face some Tigers, though these will be of the Auburn variety. The Bulldogs could potentially be on upset alert, especially if they’re looking ahead to a showdown with Ole Miss in two weeks.
The only program to withstand some of the chaos at the moment is Miami. The Hurricanes haven’t been phased at any point this season and have good wins over Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida State on their ledger. Mario Cristobal’s team should be favored in every game for the rest of the season, and the toughest game on the schedule might be a Nov. 1 trip to Dallas to face SMU.
It’s easy to hang your head right now if you’re a Penn State, Texas or Iowa State fan after Week 6. However, the only constant in college football is chaos, and the pendulum might swing back in your team’s favor with plenty of season left.
College Football Playoff projected bracket
- No. 1 Miami
- No. 2 Ohio State
- No. 3 Oregon
- No. 4 Texas A&M
- No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 12 Virginia
- No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Memphis
- No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Missouri
- No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech
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