It is a blue blood Final Four in the College Football Playoff semifinals. The teams left standing — 6-seed Penn State, 7-seed Notre Dame, 8-seed Ohio State and 5-seed Texas — have combined for 20 national championships.
That accounts for almost a quarter of the national titles in the wire service era (since 1936). You’re excused if you haven’t noticed because some of you weren’t born. Ohio State is the most recent title winner (2014). Before that, it was Texas in 2005. Notre Dame is still chasing the dragon from 1988. Penn State’s two championships came in 1982 and 1986.
None of the four remaining teams won their conference. No conference championship? No problem.
Texas is the highest remaining seed. There’s no way Ohio State should be seeded eighth. Suddenly, seventh-seeded Notre Dame seems like the bracket’s cuddly underdog.
That’s one way to look at it. Here’s another: The SEC is on the clock. If Texas loses the Cotton Bowl to Ohio State, the SEC will be out of the championship game for the second consecutive season.
Ohio State is the hottest team in the field but still is internalizing its own special angst of not being able to win the big one on the heels of a fourth straight loss to rival Michigan to close the regular season.
Hottest? Hang on because Notre Dame may want to have a word. The Irish have shed themselves of the torment from the Northern Illinois loss. The 12-game winning streak since then is the longest in the country.
If defense wins championships, then Marcus Freeman has this thing figured out. The 62.5 rushing yards per game is the best in the playoff. Defensive coordinator Al Golden has allowed the two playoff opponents — Indiana and Georgia — only 61 plays each. The Irish have held the ball 56% of the time (67 out of 120 minutes).
We shall see if quarterback Riley Leonard can be the difference offensively. Against Georgia, he passed for less than 100 yards but led the Irish in rushing.
Penn State’s defense is a trivia question. Who is the Lions’ defensive coordinator leading the CFP’s best scoring defense (12 points per game in two contests)? That would be the rejuvenated, ex-Indiana coach Tom Allen.
We should also be celebrating the fact we are guaranteed a Black coach will be playing for a national championship with Freeman meeting Penn State’s James Franklin.
Here’s how the semifinals stack up. Pay attention. Your trusty correspondent has picked every playoff game right so far.
Orange Bowl: (7) Notre Dame vs. (6) Penn State
Freeman has low-key developed into one of the best coaches in the country. That 12-game winning streak has resulted in the largest point differential (338 points) in program history. Beating the Irish is like trying to catch water. In the playoff, 26 of Notre Dame’s 50 points have come via special teams (kick return, five field goals, five extra points). Defensively, Penn State’s best path to success is forcing Leonard to throw. Leonard leads all Power Four quarterbacks with 831 rushing yards, but he is limited as a passer because Notre Dame is thin at receiver. Sophomore Jordan Faison has emerged as the Irish’s most productive and reliable receiver with 11 catches, seven of them for first downs. We’re assuming running back Jeremiyah Love, who was limited in the Sugar Bowl win over Georgia, is going to be 100%.
Penn State has the most explosive running game in the playoff (more than 200 yards per game). Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton are the first pair of 1,000-yard rushers for the Nittany Lions in the same season. Quarterback Drew Allar just completed his eighth career game with at least three touchdown passes and no interceptions. But Allar always seems to miss one or two wide open receivers per game. He’s either still developing or that is an ongoing flaw in his game. That’s not a good combination with ND leading the country allowing only 51% of opponent passes to be completed. PSU’s All-American tight end Tyler Warren can go off at any time. In the playoff, he has 17 touches receiving, rushing and throwing for 102 yards and two touchdowns.
Hidden stat: Penn State lives in the opponent’s backfield. Only two other Power Four programs have more tackles for loss. Penn State has 20 TFLs in 148 opponents’ snaps in the postseason.
Impact player to watch: Dovetailing off that, defensive end Abdul Carter leads the Power Four (second nationally) with 21.5 tackles for loss. He has only two in a couple of blowout playoff wins. Carter also leads the Lions with 11 sacks. His health status is uncertain after leaving the Boise State game with an apparent left arm/shoulder injury.
The verdict: Penn State has a better roster and more talent, but Notre Dame is on a roll. It’s been a while, but Irish magic will carry Notre Dame to a shot at the national championship. Pick: Notre Dame 26, Penn State 24
Cotton Bowl: (8) Ohio State vs. (5) Texas
Quinn Ewers returns to his “roots” against Ohio State. It seems like a decade ago, but Texas’ quarterback started with the Buckeyes after reclassifying to get out of high school a year early. He basically did it for an NIL bag. Ewers took only four snaps that freshman season. Now, he has become the face of Texas with an NFL-quality arm backed by an elite defense. Because of its lack of attention to detail, Texas allowed Arizona State to rally late to tie in Peach Bowl quarterfinal. The Longhorns arguably should have lost after a targeting penalty against Michael Taaffe wasn’t called.
As good as Ewers has been, however, Ohio State’s Will Howard is playing better. Since the Michigan loss, Howard has completed almost 75% of his passes averaging 11.45 yards per throw. Star freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is now at a point where it would be unwise to cover him one-on-one. Just ask Smith. At 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, he has an NFL body as an 18-year-old. Texas All-American defensive back Jahdae Barron (five interceptions, 61 tackles) will try, thoguh. This one has the feel of a shootout despite Texas (30) being second only to Notre Dame (31) in takeaways. The ‘Horns lead the country with 102 plays of at least 20 yards. That’s 7.38 per game and easily leads all the semifinalists. All four semifinalists are in the top 10 in second-half points allowed per game, while Ohio State leads the country (4.6 points).
Hidden stat: Ohio State is one win away from becoming the fourth team ever with four wins against top-five ranked teams in a season. The others are Notre Dame (1943), USC (1967) and LSU (2019).
Impact player to watch: Smith, duh. Unbelievably, he has had only one game with more than 119 yards receiving since Week 2, which was the the career-high 187 yards against Oregon in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.
The verdict: Howard has been the best quarterback in the tournament by far (197.13 passer rating). Ohio State’s running game is better and deeper. To win this game, Texas might need a career game from Ewers and get a couple of turnovers. You better believe Ohio State noticed that Arizona State was able to possess the ball for 97 plays and almost 38 minutes. The metrics suggest it’s going to be close. Texas and Ohio State finished 1-2 in stop rate (percentage of drives that end with no points) and fewest points allowed per drive. The SEC’s best pass defense (Texas) has been torched for its two highest totals of the season against Clemson and Arizona State. Pick: Ohio State 38, Texas 28
Read the full article here
