College football coaches entering Year 2 who are facing defining campaigns in 2025 season

The transfer portal era of college football has placed even more pressure on coaches to find success early in their tenure. We’ve seen power conference programs move on from coaches after just two seasons, and success — or lack thereof — in those early years can shape how fans view their head coach.

Urban Meyer hit it big in his second year at Florida, and Nick Saban did the same at both LSU and Alabama. More recently, Kalen DeBoer led Washington to the national championship game in his second season, and Dan Lanning had Oregon knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff in Year 2 — a precursor to winning the Big Ten and making the CFP in Year 3.

Now that coaches have the ability to quickly turn over rosters, fans believe they no longer have to wait three or four years to see results. Most coaches still get a season or two to implement their standards, but the judgment begins after Year 1.

That judgment is the focus here: ranking the stakes for 12 coaches who just completed their first season at a new job. The urgency differs based on the program and the results in 2024. But that urgency is why many of the sport’s top coaches still feel pressure to follow the blueprint of those who turned a strong Year 2 into a defining step forward.

Chances to build on Year 1 success

Curt Cignetti, Indiana: Not only did Curt Cignetti exceed expectations in his first year, he led Indiana to rare heights for the program and produced one of the most impressive debut seasons for a head coach in the 21st century. Larry Coker won a national championship in his first year at Miami, and Urban Meyer went undefeated in his first season at Ohio State — but those schools were used to competing for titles. The Hoosiers, on the other hand, had never recorded a 10-win season before 2024.

Now, Cignetti and Indiana face the challenge of sustaining success. That effort starts with a transfer portal haul expected to inject talent at key positions. The schedule gets tougher, and the team faces turnover on the coaching staff in addition to losing key contributors from last year.

But if Cignetti and his staff were as sharp in their evaluations this offseason as they were last offseason, Indiana could take another step toward establishing a new standard for Hoosier football. 

Fran Brown, Syracuse : “Winners get washed,” as Fran Brown says — and Syracuse came out sparkling from a season that saw Kyle McCord lead one of the top passing attacks in the country and the Orange win 10 games for the first time since 2018.

Brown arrived with the ideal mix of deep New Jersey connections and high-level credentials from his time under Kirby Smart at Georgia. Now, former Notre Dame quarterback Steve Angeli — a New Jersey native — enters the fold after transferring in post-spring, as Syracuse emerged as a key player in the final transfer portal window of the offseason.

The Orange lost top wide receiver Trebor Pena to Penn State but added depth at quarterback and along the lines of scrimmage. As with Cignetti, Brown guided Syracuse through an advantageous schedule in Year 1 that flips into a much tougher slate in Year 2. But in Syracuse’s case, it’s not just tougher — it’s one of the most difficult schedules among power-conference teams. The Orange face Notre Dame and Tennessee in nonconference play, along with several ACC powers (including Clemson and SMU) they avoided in the 2024 rotation.

Manny Diaz, Duke: Manny Diaz didn’t take over a program in disarray, but building competitive depth and establishing continuity after Mike Elko’s departure took some time. Fortunately for Duke, the schedule allowed for some manageable early matchups as the Blue Devils found their footing. After going 4-0 in nonconference play, they posted a winning record in ACC games and capped the season with a Gator Bowl appearance against Ole Miss.

There’s more turnover at quarterback, with Maalik Murphy departing and prized transfer Darian Mensah from Tulane taking over the offense. Still, Duke feels confident about the foundation laid during a season in which it won with defense and excelled on the margins.

Duke went 6-1 in one-score games last season, which will invite calls for regression. But Diaz and his staff have made it clear: winning on the margins is part of this team’s identity – and how it plans to compete with the ACC’s best.

Looking to make the jump 

Kalen DeBoer, Alabama: So what separates Kalen DeBoer’s 9-4 record from other 9-4 seasons when evaluating Year 1 success? Being at Alabama.

The Crimson Tide enter every season expecting to contend for championships. And while DeBoer had last year’s team in the hunt for a CFP berth into the final weeks, there were too many losses for 2024 to be considered a season in which expectations were met. Defeats to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma — especially a 24-3 loss in Norman — left a sour taste for fans who expected a Saban-esque campaign after an early season win over Georgia.

For Alabama, the next step is clear: double-digit wins and an SEC title push that doesn’t leave the team sweating out Selection Sunday, as it did in 2024. The internal message has already been delivered — a return to the program’s standard, where shocking losses don’t derail otherwise talented teams. This fall, DeBoer will be judged on how the 2025 team responds to that mandate.

Of all the coaches in this tier, none face more pressure heading into Year 2 than DeBoer. Meeting or exceeding expectations is a must. Falling short again could seriously jeopardize the long-term viability of his tenure in Tuscaloosa.

Mike Elko, Texas A&M: If last season had ended on Nov. 1, Mike Elko’s debut at Texas A&M would have been viewed as an undeniable success — one potentially capable of altering the trajectory of the program. Unfortunately for the Aggies, that’s not how the season played out. Texas A&M went 1-4 down the stretch, with its only win in that span coming against New Mexico State.

The defense couldn’t get key stops against South Carolina and Auburn, and offensive struggles against rival Texas added to a frustrating finish. This was a team that sat at 7-1 with a legitimate path to the SEC Championship Game and the CFP. Instead, the Aggies ended the season with a bowl loss to USC — a disappointing end to what once looked like a breakout year.

The good news: the leap forward may not require a major overhaul. A few key improvements — more consistency on offense, better injury luck and, most importantly, sustaining early-season momentum — could be enough to put Texas A&M back in the national conversation. The roster has top-10 potential, and reaching that level by the end of 2025 would reflect the jump many fans are expecting. But getting there will come down to execution.

Sherrone Moore, Michigan: When you lose most of your coaching staff and 13 NFL Draft picks off a national championship team, one can expect a honeymoon period with adjusted expectations. Sherrone Moore entered his first full season at Michigan dealing with instability at quarterback, putting the Wolverines in a position where they had to win games on their terms — with defense leading the way.

That formula paid off in major moments, including wins against Ohio State and Alabama. But as the former offensive coordinator for the title-winning team, Moore now faces expectations to win because of his offense, not in spite of it.

Michigan may not take a major step forward in the win column, but if the Wolverines can show more explosiveness and efficiency with the ball, it would mark an important step forward for the Moore era.

Jedd Fisch, Washington: Context is critical when evaluating any college football job, and grading on a curve means acknowledging the challenge of rebooting Washington football after a CFP run. DeBoer left for Alabama late in the coaching carousel, a departure followed by a wave of NFL-bound veterans and portal exits that left the Huskies with few recognizable faces from the team that won the Pac-12 and finished as national runner-up.

Viewed through that lens, a 6-6 regular season under Jedd Fisch was a stabilizing effort — and hopefully represents the floor for his tenure in Seattle. Still, there were glaring issues. Special teams mistakes proved costly, the offense struggled against quality opponents and the Huskies suffered three blowout losses in Pac-12 play.

Wins over Michigan and USC helped secure bowl eligibility and offered building blocks. But among all the second-year coaches looking to take a step forward, Fisch may be the one aiming to make the biggest leap. 

Needs to show improvement 

Deshaun Foster, UCLA: Things didn’t look promising through the first six games of the Deshaun Foster era, as UCLA appeared out of sorts in all three phases and suffered four double-digit losses. But by season’s end, that 1-5 start reflected less about the team’s quality and more about the brutal schedule — and the challenges of adjusting to a new conference against its toughest opponents.

The Bruins’ first three conference games came against teams that made the College Football Playoff, and their Power Four nonconference matchup was a road trip to LSU in Death Valley. Given that context, a 4-2 finish over the final six games helped ease concerns — especially with the added boost of landing former Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava out of the transfer portal.

All told, the panic level in Westwood remains low heading into 2025.  

Jonathan Smith, Michigan State: Jonathan Smith inherited a mess in the wake of Mel Tucker’s unceremonious exit — a situation compounded by NIL issues and transfer portal departures that left Michigan State’s roster a far cry from the group that reached the New Year’s Six a few seasons back.

Expectations weren’t high in Year 1, but Spartans fans do want to see a team that can at least reach the postseason and remain competitive in Big Ten play. The Spartans went 3-6 in conference games and, aside from a strong showing in a win over Iowa, struggled to deliver consistent performances. They failed to replicate that success the rest of the way.

The offense was below average — not ideal for a coach with Smith’s offensive background — and the team wasn’t competitive in late-season losses to Indiana, Illinois and Rutgers. 

Willie Fritz, Houston: It was a chaotic first season for Willie Fritz, as fans celebrated shocking upsets of Utah and Kansas State while cringing at an offense that failed to score a touchdown in three different conference games. Offensive help appears to be on the way in the form of former Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman. And if Houston can maintain its strong defense, flipping a couple of games from that 4-8 finish into a bowl appearance in 2025 should be possible.

Fritz rose through the ranks as a winner at multiple levels — from junior college to FCS and into FBS — so there’s reason for confidence in Houston’s turnaround. But there is urgency to finish on the right side of some of those tough coin-flip games in the parity-driven Big 12.

Brent Brennan, Arizona: Speaking of the parity-filled Big 12, Brent Brennan could benefit from seeing Arizona follow the same path rival Arizona State had last season. The Sun Devils were picked last in the conference heading into Kenny Dillingham’s second year and became one of the surprise stories nationally as they rose to win the leage.

The domino effect from Nick Saban’s retirement left Brennan and Arizona in a tough spot. Jedd Fisch’s exit to Washington to replace Kalen DeBoer meant Brennan was hired after most transfer portal activity had ended and just weeks before February’s signing day. Arizona’s lone Big 12 win came against Houston, setting up a real race between the two second-year coaches to see who can take the biggest step forward.

Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State: The outlook is tough for Jeff Lebby, a coach with a successful run as an offensive coordinator, to recapture some of the success Mississippi State had with both Dan Mullen and Mike Leach. The Bulldogs went 1-10 against FBS opponents last season — with the lone win coming against UMass — and every SEC game ended in a double-digit loss.

Mississippi State used the transfer portal to try to boost the roster’s talent, but oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have set the 2025 win total at 3.5. Rarely are the Bulldogs expected to contend for the SEC title, but Lebby is aiming to get closer to bowl eligibility in 2025.